BOB: PABUK - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

TMD:

At 12.45 p.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” has made landfall over Pak Phanang, Nakhon Si thammarat. At latitude 8.2 degree north, longitude 100.2 degree east. Maximum sustained wind is 75 km/hr. The storm was moving northwest at a speed of 18 km/hr. It is expected to downgrade to be tropical depression “PABUK” and It will prevail over Surat Thani soon. This will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions that cause forest runoffs and flash floods. Affected areas are as followings:
4 January: Torrential downpours and strong winds much of provinces: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

5 January: Torrential downpours and strong wind much of provinces: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast with waves up to 3-5 meters high in the Gulf and 2-3 meters high in the Andaman Sea. All ships keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges.

[TyphoonNara]

EURO is still barely developing the system.

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Pabuk Makes First on Record Southern Thailand January Landfall; One Killed, Thousands Evacuated

[TyphoonNara]

JMA issues its final warning as Pabuk will soon enter the Andaman Sea

WTJP21 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1901 PABUK (1901) 996 HPA
AT 08.2N 100.3E THAILAND MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 08.5N 098.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 09.0N 097.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 11.3N 093.2E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 13.7N 090.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM RSMC TOKYO ON THIS SYSTEM. THE
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC NEW DELHI UNLESS RE-ENTRY OR
SLOW-DOWN OCCURS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 019

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

041800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 98.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 98.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z --- 9.2N 97.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

051800Z --- 9.8N 95.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

060600Z --- 10.9N 93.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z --- 11.9N 92.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z --- 14.6N 90.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

---

REMARKS:

042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 98.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM NORTHEAST
OF PHUKET, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER LAND IN THE MALAY PENINSULA AND ABOUT TO EXIT INTO
THE ANDAMAN SEA. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT
DRAGGED ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT, AS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP, AND WHERE THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND RCTP OF T2.5 AND T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
TC 36W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
ANDAMAN SEA WILL BE MARGINAL AND MAY SUPPORT A SUSTAINED 40-KNOT SYSTEM AT BEST.
INCREASING VWS AS TC 36W MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, OR SOONER. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER ON THE
LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING AFTER TAU 72.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 98.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 98.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 10.3N 96.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.2N 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.2N 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.6N 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.3N 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 97.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM WEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS). EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO
LIMIT THE INTENSITY. TD 36W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK.
NOW THAT IT IS BACK OVER WATER, THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNTIL
HIGH VWS (AROUND TAU 48) WILL CAUSE TC 36W TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD
PRIOR TO TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

36W PABUK 190105 1200 10.1N 97.6E WPAC 30 1000

Sub: Cyclonic Storm „PABUK‟ over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood- Cyclone warning for Andaman
Islands “ORANGE MESSAGE”
The cyclonic storm ‘PABUK’ over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood moved further westnorthwestwards with a speed of 13 kmph in past 06 hours. It lay centered at 1430 hours IST of today, the 05th January, 2019 over Andaman Sea & neighbourhood near latitude 9.5°N and longitude 97.3°E, about 550 km east-southeast of Port Blair. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for some more time.
Thereafter, it is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Andaman Islands around evening of 06th January as a Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph. Thereafter, it is very likely to move north-northwestwards and then recurve northeastwards towards Myanmar coast and weaken
gradually during 07th-08th January, 2019.

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

051500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 96.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96NM NORTH OF PHUKET, THAILAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SUGGESTS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION. TC 36W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, IT WILL ROUND THE STR
AXIS ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK. INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE DISSIPATION NO
LATER THAN TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM,
WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
GROUPED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
MODEL CLUSTER WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z
AND 061500Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED MANOP HEADER FROM WTIO31 TO
WTPN31. CHANGED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE LOCATION FROM HO CHI MINH CITY,
VI TO 96NM NORTH OF PHUKET, THAILAND.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN11 PGTW 010338

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 6.57N

D. 110.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

[Hayabusa]

TPPN11 PGTW 010338

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 6.57N

D. 110.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

This fix was from near 5 days ago.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 96.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 96.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.9N 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 96.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED
AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR SATELLITE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK INTENSITY OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED
INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS)
AND IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE ALONG ITS FORECAST POLEWARD TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 36W HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC
WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN11 PGTW 010338

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 6.57N

D. 110.51E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

This fix was from near 5 days ago.

Oh.

I think JTWC have posted an old fix on its latest warning for some reason. I should have paid more attention though.

[doomhaMwx]

Downgraded to a deep depression by IMD.
It appeared that it was getting reorganized over the Andaman Sea earlier today, but this was just short-lived as dry air and strong westerly shear has quickly taken its toll on the system.