WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR)
WARNING NR 56//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 140540Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE CORIOLIS IMAGERY.
TS 10E IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION HAS WANED A BIT DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE, BUT PERSISTENT,
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINMENT AT APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TOWARD A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST VIES WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO INFLUENCE INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AFTER TAU 48 AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 10E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WEAKEN AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK AS TS 10E ROUNDS THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THESE MINOR
DISCREPANCIES, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- wxman57
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm
No evidence of TS winds in over 24 hrs. ScatSat indicates it may no longer even have a circulation.
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Storm
WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNING NR 059
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 170.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 170.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.1N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 33.1N 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUB-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 170.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10E (HECTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1317 NM
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
ELONGATED DUE TO HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ACCELERATING FORWARD MOTION. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS NO LONGER
DEPICTS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. TD 10E HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY
NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS
(WPTN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Tropical Depression
TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 15 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N29°00' (29.0°)
E171°00' (171.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1012 hPa
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 15 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N29°00' (29.0°)
E171°00' (171.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1012 hPa
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical
DioBrando wrote:Noooo! The fun is over :/
The only days I had fun tracking this was Sat Aug 4 and Mon Aug 6. August 6 was the big day but also the day where I saw the deck unravel and the Euro started showing a less-than desirable solution. If Lane weren't out there trying to lure me back in I'd be saying, "See you all in September!" - once Hector continued to gain latitude and the ECMWF eww trend.
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Re: WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical
Cyclenall wrote:DioBrando wrote:Noooo! The fun is over :/
The only days I had fun tracking this was Sat Aug 4 and Mon Aug 6. August 6 was the big day but also the day where I saw the deck unravel and the Euro started showing a less-than desirable solution. If Lane weren't out there trying to lure me back in I'd be saying, "See you all in September!" - once Hector continued to gain latitude and the ECMWF eww trend.
mmmm I get you fam
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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