ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[NotSparta]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 14.0N 51.0W FOR 07/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[cycloneye]

Tentative mission for Saturday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 14.0N 51.0W FOR 07/1800Z.

[floridasun78]

i got feeling that will be cancel

[floridasun78]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 14.0N 51.0W FOR 07/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

got feeling flight will be cancel because by weekend will be hitting shear

[Ian2401]

It's definitely trying

[Steve H.]

I heard one forecaster say that at the very least, they would like to conduct a study mission.

[Eric Webb]

The NHC is likely dropping the ball on this, you can see spiral banding developing near what may be an increasingly exposed LLC on the southern edge of the convective canopy.

[cycloneye]

i got feeling that will be cancel

I see that happening.

[floridasun78]

The NHC is likely dropping the ball on this, you can see spiral banding developing near what may be an increasingly exposed LLC on the southern edge of the convective canopy.

i dont think so it far from land so why not put td on it yet and likely will get cool water and shear by sat

[cycloneye]

Hot tower goes up near LLC.

[Eric Webb]

The NHC is likely dropping the ball on this, you can see spiral banding developing near what may be an increasingly exposed LLC on the southern edge of the convective canopy.

i dont think so it far from land so why not put td on it yet and likely will get cool water and shear by sat

Why does it matter that this isnt close to any land areas, a TD is a TD, period.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS does not develop in this run.But bad weather will go to the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico Sunday thru Monday.

[Siker]

12z GFS does not develop in this run.But bad weather will go to the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico Sunday thru Monday.

It does develop it, but to a much more reasonable intensity / amount of time vs. what it showed before.

[MGC]

Nice spin at mid levels...not sure if a well defined surface circulation exists. Convection to its south is limiting moisture availability. I think it might make TD status before it weakens.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

The NHC is likely dropping the ball on this, you can see spiral banding developing near what may be an increasingly exposed LLC on the southern edge of the convective canopy.

i dont think so it far from land so why not put td on it yet and likely will get cool water and shear by sat

Why does it matter that this isnt close to any land areas, a TD is a TD, period.

Well the argument will always continue. the fact is and any right-minded scientist will say ... it matters because accurate data is important. if it meets the requirements set forth it should be classified simply because of keeping up proper records for many various reason that is important. the problem is the NHC is not governed by purely science reason. they have to take into account many of factors that are not science related.

So should it be classified? well yes. given all the current data. But it wont because the likelihood of it surviving afterward is low.. so in the NHC's eyes and others... What's the point?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm going to have to agree with Eric Webb... this is TD #2, IMO. I wish we had a good ASCAT pass. 95L won't be alive much longer, but I really do think it's a tropical cyclone.

[Kazmit]

If this isn't upgraded now, it should be in post-season, right? Since it's not a named storm it wouldn't mess with the list anyway.

[NotSparta]

Still has a couple of days to further consolidate. The NHC still has time to designate this while it looks like a TC

[Eric Webb]

Nice spin at mid levels...not sure if a well defined surface circulation exists. Convection to its south is limiting moisture availability. I think it might make TD status before it weakens.....MGC

The convection to the south is doing little if anything to hinder this system, if anything it’s beneficial. 95L is dragging the entire monsoon trough northward with it and is consuming the moisture associated with this convection which it will need to mix out SAL that’s attempting to wrap in on the southern and western quadrants of the mid level center

[NotSparta]

It appears as if 95L is attempting to wrap the monsoon trough convection around the eastern quadrant