WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

If I were to guess, the reach of TS-force winds extends 1,000km away from Mangkhut's core. The winds were enough to topple electric posts and huge trees in Southern Luzon, particularly here in Metro Manila. I heard there are also some wind damage in the Visayas area, particularly in Cebu and Dumaguete City. In Mindanao, the main problem was the heavy rainfall that caused flooding in Zamboanga Peninsula, although the enhanced southwest monsoon could be the other culprit apart from Mangkhut.

[Highteeld]

Mangkhut (Peak)



Meranti (Peak)



Irma (Peak)



Mangkhut can hang with the best of the best (minus Haiyan since it was a freak of nature to begin with).

[supercane4867]

The JTWC once again is doing its old habit of keeping intensity way too high after a storm makes landfall. No way this is still CAT4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JTWC once again is doing its old habit of keeping intensity way too high after a storm makes landfall. No way this is still CAT4

I guess this could be a minimal category 4 (which may be a bit on the high side) especially considering that the storm made landfall at around 160-165 kts. I wouldn't say this ended up like Megi, since Mangkhut is much faster. Recovery could be quick. It's over water again. Megi crossed the Sierra Madre and the Cordilleras, while Mangkhut went through the Sierra Madres but passed through Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LARGE CYCLONE NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SERIOUSLY DEGRADED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LUZON. DESPITE THAT IT
REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACTIVE REPORTING STATIONS ON THE ISLAND. THE
PASSAGE OVER LUZON SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE, MAKING THE INTENSITY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY, WHICH IS ASSESSED
AT 115 KNOTS, USING THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) IS 27-29 CELSIUS. TY 26W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TY 26W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SCS AND RAPID WEAKENING AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG
KONG AROUND TAU 36. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY FAVORABLE THROUGH
TAU 36. SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS 175 NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

This might be the most textbook case of frictional convergence I have ever seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2f2WlqxZcw
[Youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2f2WlqxZcw[/Youtube]

edit: /Youtube function not working

[doomhaMwx]

Baguio/Benguet is getting battered by torrential rain with occasionally really strong gusts (seems to be typhoon-force) this morning. It does appear that by the end of the day, we'll already have 300mm+ 24hr rainfall accumulation as what the models have been predicting. No power here in my location since Mangkhut made landfall.

[mrbagyo]

Here's the long radar loop that I've created.
(Image: PAGASA-DOST)

[Highteeld]

That eyewall before landfall is nuts. Too bad Josh missed the eye -- would have loved to have seen the pressure -- even though the storm would have been 25-30 miles inland.

[euro6208]

Indeed. Very powerful eyewall at landfall.

[mrbagyo]

Severe flash flood being experienced right now in Benguet, Cordillera Region

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2089089791103854&id=100000085604072

[shah83]

Basin wide image shocked me as to just how large this system is. Isn't this rather close to Tip's size? What's more, wouldn't this more or less be the largest typhoon ever in the SCS?

[euro6208]

The terror continues as Mangkhut is now back over water.

[NotoSans]

Surprised to see the inner eye remaining intact after crossing Luzon as per visible imagery, but it’s quite likely that the ERC finally completes over the South China Sea.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/N9HZnaV.gif


The terror continues as Mangkhut is now back over water.

Looks like it filled at least 50 mb though
Earlier:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[1900hurricane]

Hi, sorry to bother everyone. It’s a busy time. Anyone willing to make an educated guess on how this will affect Hong Kong? I’m on a flight to Hong Kong as I type this! Thank you in advance!

A little hard to tell at the moment since a small change in the storm motion angle could make a stark difference in sensible impacts. Looks like current progs have it passing a little to the south, but the chances of seeing storm force winds are pretty good when it makes its closest approach on the afternoon of the 16th locally. Any northerly trend could bring typhoon conditions into the area, so its definitely something to keep an eye on.

[NotoSans]

Hi, sorry to bother everyone. It’s a busy time. Anyone willing to make an educated guess on how this will affect Hong Kong? I’m on a flight to Hong Kong as I type this! Thank you in advance!

You can refer to the HKO website for more details: https://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm. HKO will likely hoist the No.8 Gale or Storm Signal in the early morning on Sunday, and once the signal is hoisted, all transport will likely stop services. Winds are forecast to increase rapidly on Sunday, and the official forecast does not rule out the possibility of hurricane-force winds impact.

[mrbagyo]

Mangkhut has developed a very large outer Eyewall after its interaction with Luzon (pretty common occurrence). What happened with the recon?

[NotoSans]

The latest Euro run has the maximum winds directly over Pearl River Delta.