ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[toad strangler]

That was a sweet schooling. Andrew 2.0 cancel

[Exalt]

A nice little OTS recurve right up on the coast would be nice just to get that SOE so my classes in WBurg will get cancelled!

[beoumont]

Caregory 4 Hurricane Esther 1961:

[Dean4Storms]

Big difference in ridge configuration between that 12z GFS run and the 00z ECM Ensemble Mean. The ECM ENS has a banana shaped ridge from eastern NC extending eastward over and including Bermuda then well out to sea which is why the ECM keeps Florence heading for the Carolina's whereas the GFS has the ridge more east and circular allowing Florence the end around.

[tolakram]

Isn't it also accurate to say that a strong hurricane will not always follow what we see at 500mb?

Slightly off topic but I think it was you tolakram that had posted the model verification reports in the past? And from what I recall the UKMET was the 2nd best performing global model next to the Euro...I may be wrong though...just something to ponder.

Close to the GFS, and a little better, but the 2017 verification PDF is the best place to see the longer term results.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2017.pdf

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal activity, with 407 official forecasts
issued. The mean NHC official track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin were smaller than the
previous 5-yr means at all forecast times. The official track forecasts were quite successful in 2017,
with records for track accuracy set at all forecast times. However, these track forecasts were slightly
beaten by the consensus models. EMXI was the best-performing individual model, followed by
EGRI and UEMI. GFSI, AEMI, HWFI, and CMCI were fair performers while CTCI and NVGI
performed less well.

EMXI is Previous cycle EMX, adjusted. EMX is the Euro

EGGR is United Kingdom Met Office model with subjective quality control applied to the tracker

UEMN is the UKMET ensemble mean adjusted

GFSI, AEMI are both the GFS adjusted, HWFI is the HWRF, CMCI is the Canadian.

The other abbreviations in the table below are all combinations. If you look at 96 hours, for example, the best position score was the mighty FSSE (FSU Super-ensemble), followed by the HCCA which is:

Weighted average of AEMI, GFSI, CTCI, DSHP, EGRI, EMNI, EMXI,HWFI, LGEM

The weightings are the key and I'm not sue if those are provided or not.

[Shell Mound]

Source

Top five-day model verifications for mid-level (500-mb) heights over past thirty-one days in Northern Hemisphere: ECMWF (89.9), FV3-GFS (87.5), and UKMET (86.8). The operational GFS only registers at 85.7, with the FV3 performing significantly better, interestingly. The FV3 is essentially a peer competitor against the "top-dog" ECMWF and the trailing UKMET. So these three global models are the ones to watch and compare vs. real-time data and trends in the environment.

Comparison between the 00Z EPS and 12Z GEFS means reveals that the former depicts a deeper, more southerly ridge axis that extends farther east:

[Aric Dunn]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro Running - Init

[otowntiger]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

I would give the all clear for florida once it begins to turn after it turns west.

[floridasun78]

12Z Euro Running - Init

show high building to west let see rest show still loading

[StormyWaters93]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

Hasn't WESH 2 done this before and been wrong?

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[Aric Dunn]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

Hasn't WESH 2 done this before and been wrong?

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for the last at least 25 years that I can remember lol

[CW0262]

waiting for the Euro is like watching lottery numbers LOL

[SFLcane]

Euro is showing Florence as a 1005mb TS...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro is showing Florence as a 1005mb TS...

That model is one of the worst for intensity, but has been accurate in consistency in its tracks over the last few seasons.

[SFLcane]

12z UKMET folks...

[chris_fit]

So far like the last run pretty much...

[chris_fit]

Hot off the press - 12Z GFS Ensembles - Noticeable Shift to OTS/East

[ava_ati]

did the ECMWF init at 996? that seems way off has it at a 1005 TS in 24 hours? I am not sure if we can run to the bank on that