WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

TD
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°00' (10.0°)
E147°35' (147.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30' (11.5°)
E147°00' (147.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 03A RELOCATED//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ANIMATED WV
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO A TUTT CELL ANCHORED NEAR 20N 160E. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A DEFINED
NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 030545Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT, IN ADDITION
TO THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TD 10W IS UNDER FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT
29 TO 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
A. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM TO THE ENE
FROM THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. AS A RESULT, CPA TO GUAM IS CLOSER AND
NOW FROM THE NORTHEAST SIDE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES
PASSING WEST TO EAST, NORTH OF 20N, WILL INVARIABLY AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THE STR CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TD 10W WILL REACH 80
KNOTS AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AND STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION AS OUTFLOW, VWS, AND
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
AT LEAST 100 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING SPREAD, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

And the relocation continues. Updated Track has it more towards Saipan than Guam.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°05' (11.1°)
E147°35' (147.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E146°35' (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

Very important information for the islands. Winds and especially rains will be an issue.

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 031143
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
943 PM CHST TUE JUL 3 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.4 DEGREES EAST. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10W WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WAS 285 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. IT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR INCREASING WINDS BY SECURING LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AND
CANOPIES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...
SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. INITIATE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

GUZ001-PMZ151-031800-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.A.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.W.4010.180703T1143Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
943 PM CHST TUE JUL 3 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.PREPAREDNESS/PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AND MAKE SURE CANOPIES ARE TAKEN DOWN OR
SECURELY FASTENED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT GUAM BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL SHIFT TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD BEACHES. ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF
GUAM...SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND
WEST FACING REEFS. SURF WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-031800-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
943 PM CHST TUE JUL 3 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.PREPAREDNESS/PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AND MAKE SURE CANOPIES ARE TAKEN DOWN OR
SECURELY FASTENED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 30 TO 40 MPH IF 10W MOVES ON A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION IS
NOT LIKELY. ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS.
SURF WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-031800-
/O.EXA.PGUM.TR.A.4010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
943 PM CHST TUE JUL 3 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.PREPAREDNESS/PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AND MAKE SURE CANOPIES ARE TAKEN DOWN OR
SECURELY FASTENED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 30 TO 40 MPH IF 10W MOVES ON A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN SURF BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION IS
NOT LIKELY. ONCE 10W PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHWEST
SWELL WILL BUILD WITH SURF RISING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS.
SURF WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam. Tropical storm
conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more, are expected
within 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more,
are possible within 24 to 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION THAT IS STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE. ANIMATED WV IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
THE POLEWARD CHANNEL TAPPING INTO A TUTT CELL ANCHORED NEAR 20N 160E.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP AND A 031120Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT IMAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, TD 10W IS UNDER FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASSING WEST TO EAST, NORTH OF 20N, WILL INVARIABLY AND
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 24, TD 10W
WILL REACH 40-KNOT TS STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ISLAND OF ROTA,
APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. BY TAU 72, TD 10W WILL REACH
80 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AND STEADY - POSSIBLY RAPID - INTENSIFICATION AS OUTFLOW, VWS, AND
ALONG-TRACK SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH INCREASING SPREAD; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Super Typhoon Maria? That'd be interesting and fascinatingly terrifying.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS down to 928 mbs close to islands and NE of Okinawa.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is also strong but less than GFS.Track is the same as GFS.

[cycloneye]

JMA:

TD
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 3 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°25' (11.4°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30' (13.5°)
E145°05' (145.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[cycloneye]

The bend to the left is a little more pronnounced on the 21:00 UTC warning.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10
FEET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 10W HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND ALSO SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 031800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TD 10W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE,
ESPECIALLY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH HAS TAPPED INTO THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL, LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 10W IS BEING STEERED TO
THE NORTHWEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, UNTIL 301800Z THE
LLCC WAS STILL CONSOLIDATING AND HAD BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. FOR
THE 031800Z WARNING THE POSITION FOR TD 10W WAS RELOCATED 58NM WHICH
HAS LED TO A CHANGE IN CPA FOR GUAM. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
B. TD 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36
AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTH. MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ERODE
THE STR AFTER TAU 36 ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE STR ERODES AND WHEN THE STR BUILDS BACK TO THE
WEST IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACKERS WHICH INDICATE A WIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A STRAIGHT NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS TAIWAN TO A
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD IWAKUNI, JAPAN. ALL MODELS
DO AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 30. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS. THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER AND GFS TRACKER FAVORS A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA, WHILE THE NAVGEM TRACKER FAVORS
A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN JAPAN. MOST GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TD 10W WILL BE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH FROM TAU 72
THROUGH TAU 120. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FOR TD 10W. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Changes in the warnings.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Rota.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Rota. Tropical storm
conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more, are expected
within 24 hours.

Watches and warnings still in effect.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Guam. Tropical storm
conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or more, are expected
tonight.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan.
Tropical storm conditions, including damaging winds of 39 mph or
more, are possible within 24 to 36 hours.

[cycloneye]

Trying to consolidate.

[cycloneye]

Good consensus for the first 4 days but afterwards they spread out.

[cycloneye]

TD
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 4 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°30' (11.5°)
E146°30' (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10' (13.2°)
E144°30' (144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)