ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Ivanhater]

The center is definitely not that far south

[jlauderdal]

Is it me or is the center passing over mainland south Florida..which is north of the cone yesterday?

It is further North. Originally was thought is would set up at Marathon Key but now over Key Largo may even be a bit further North

looks to me like the center is 40 miles sw of miami

[tolakram]

Here's a link that works to wunderground ... sometimes. So sad the site has taken a nosedive since being bought out.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?isPresentationActive=0&Units=english&zoom=8&lat=24.698672897965224&lon=-80.26072075453398&wxstn=1&wxstnmode=tw&radar=0&radaropa=0.7&satellite=0&satelliteopa=0.8&insertHurricaneNameHere=false&goes16opa=&severe=0&severeopa=0.9&sst=0&sstopa=0.8&sstanom=0&sstanomopa=0.8&cam=0&fronts=0&hur=0&models=0&modelsmodel=ecmwf&modelsopa=0.8&modelstype=SURPRE&lightning=0&fire=0&fireopa=0.9&rep=0&surge=0&tor=0&windstr=1

[BobHarlem]

Edit, wrong forum.

[MississippiWx]

The center is probably where the NHC has it considering they reported west surface winds in the Keys. Lol. Geez.

[Frank P]

gotta love it when the pro mets come on board with posts that busts a lot of balloons... mine included... haha

They're just on a holiday mood

Outflow is clear pushing out the shear to his west.
East GOM is juiced.
Very likely this will ramp a couple hours after it hits the water.

Could the HWRF be on to something? if it does push out the shear all bets are off... 16mph is fast but not fast enough to stop development... IMO..
when wxman57 comes on board, I'll take the bait...

[MississippiWx]

Here's a link that works to wunderground ... sometimes. So sad the site has taken a nosedive since being bought out.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?isPresentationActive=0&Units=english&zoom=8&lat=24.698672897965224&lon=-80.26072075453398&wxstn=1&wxstnmode=tw&radar=0&radaropa=0.7&satellite=0&satelliteopa=0.8&insertHurricaneNameHere=false&goes16opa=&severe=0&severeopa=0.9&sst=0&sstopa=0.8&sstanom=0&sstanomopa=0.8&cam=0&fronts=0&hur=0&models=0&modelsmodel=ecmwf&modelsopa=0.8&modelstype=SURPRE&lightning=0&fire=0&fireopa=0.9&rep=0&surge=0&tor=0&windstr=1

I visited it the other day for the first time in a while, and I could not believe how bad it had become. Very sad. Dr. Master's blog used to be a great source of info. Glad we have Storm2k now!

Thankfully, we have recon going in and it will provide answers to a lot of our questions!

[drezee]

Observations and Analysis:
TS Gordon is currently a small system with a small LLC with a trough hanging off to the SW. The wind field is not clean but it doesn't matter right now. Recon may not even be able to close a center until tonight. What matters is the next 36 hours...

There are two system inducing shear: an upper low and "new" upper high. The upper low has been finally cut off and is retrograding to slightly S of West. With Gordon moving WNW, it will increase distance from this upper low. That distance will allow Gordon to use it as an outflow channel within 12-18 hours. The upper high that basically formed over the last two days with the "almost" system near TX/LA is moving NW and is transient. A developing TC will easily displace this shear. You will begin to see a solid line of high cloud between the new upper high Gordon us forming and the transient one. That will be the west side of Gordon saying get out of my way. This will also produce a upper gradient that will enhance air evacuation.

Gordon should not be downplayed. It has every chance to be a hurricane. Days ago, I said outflow jets could emerge if properly aligned. I'd say 70% that they have. If Gordon can really increase convection in the next 12 hours, the the shear means nothing. He could go close to RI if the alignments above take shape. Officials will be playing catchup tonight and tomorrow. I expect people will wake up tomorrow staring down a different situation than right now.

[tolakram]

Key West radar saved loop.

[jlauderdal]

The center is probably where the NHC has it considering they reported west surface winds in the Keys. Lol. Geez.

you didnt believe them when they didnt have it classified so why start now

[Ivanhater]

That radar loop shows the northern center over taking big time...rain bands strengthening over it

[northjaxpro]

Even if the LLC goes inland from where it is currently, as we have seen with Katrina in 2005 and T.S.Fay in 2008, that swampy area of the peninsula has and can tighten the LLC. Watch this potential today. Gordon could actually pull together in organization later today.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or does it look like the MLC and LLC are greatly decoupled? It looks the LLC is just SE of Marathon, while the MLC is over the southern tip of mainland South Florida.

[MississippiWx]

The center is probably where the NHC has it considering they reported west surface winds in the Keys. Lol. Geez.

you didnt believe them when they didnt have it classified so why start now

I never said a word about them not having it classified. Lol. They had to wait on visible/surface obs just like the rest of us.

[jlauderdal]

That radar loop shows the northern center over taking big time...rain bands strengthening over it

its going to be offshore in less than an hour then BOOM

[tolakram]

Radar is seeing the MLC, Key West might be close enough to see some of the LLC in my opinion. There is northerly shear, an upper low is over western Cuba.

SLIDER WV loop: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=9032&y=5833&z=2&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=7&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Radar is seeing the MLC, Key West might be close enough to see some of the LLC in my opinion. There is northerly shear, an upper low is over western Cuba.

Yea, that's what I'm seeing, too. The two are displaced and the fast forward speed isn't helping. Gordon is still extremely disorganized.

[ronjon]

Yes I think the only hindrance to RI is the fast forward speed. Once the center emerges into the SE GOM, the structure should continue to improve. Look for it to be off Naples by early afternoon.

[NDG]

I just don't see any problems with shear in the gulf, the only shear that I see with it is from the SE but due to its fast pace it is not doing anything to it.
The northerly shear of the central GOM will move out of its away.IMO.

[GumboCane83]

Did the forecast track move east? At first the storm was going to track across Louisiana.