ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

FWIW I was checking out the weather forecasts for areas around me and saw that now Starke FL is forecast to have possible hurricane conditions on Thursday night. Starke is pretty far inland for that kind of forecast..makes me think that maybe the next NHC will show a stronger Hurricane...I sure hope not though. EDITED to add..I am not any sort of expert on this subject

This is based on intensifying hurricane at landfall. Worst case scensrio Michael has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane at landfall.

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?

https//forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=JAX

Also pull it by noaa.gov, type in Jacksonville, Fl and pull up products as well, which includes the AFD

[chaser1]

This is based on intensifying hurricane at landfall. Worst case scensrio Michael has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane at landfall.

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?

https//forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=JA

Is this the same or different link?? https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[FLeastcoast]

Hey northjaxpro, I've been trying to find NWS disscusion on Michael on their website, but I can't find it yet. You don't mind providing a link?

Is this what you are looking for? https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2101.shtml?

No, that's the National Hurricane Center discussion, but thank you anyway. I was looking for the National Weather Service Jax update.[/quote]
Sorry..I am still learning...let me try again...maybe this one? https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[meriland29]

What are the chances it is a M hurricane by landfall? It seems to be booking it quite fast ..how fast is he moving?

[kthmcc7319]

What are the chances it is a M hurricane by landfall? It seems to be booking it quite fast ..how fast is he moving?

At 10pm CDT the NHC reported 5mph

[HDGator]

What are the chances it is a M hurricane by landfall? It seems to be booking it quite fast ..how fast is he moving?

Recon is almost there to make a pass. Michael's convection has been deepening on satellite so we'll have to see where he's at now.
I guess the big question is whether shear will impede his organization and strengthening. I'm staying up for the recon to see where he's at now. I think it will be telling.

[JaxGator]

I appreciate it guys, thank you. That's the link I went to first, but didn't specify on possible hurricane conditions, so I checked the NWS pages for Starke and Lake City instead and found it. I thought at first the NWS had a power point presentation or something like that. Prepare for the worst, but the hope for best for everyone under the gun of what Michael becomes.

[chaser1]

Forgive me if this seems a bit selfish, but as someone who is currently living through recovery from Florence, I am seeing the NHC call for a tropical storm over my house at the end of the week. As I look out my window, and see the moon reflect off of a pond in the lots across the street from my house, that was not a pond before Florence, I wonder, if a tropical storm Michael will flood my house that a cat 1/2 Florence couldn't? I also wonder if the only dirt road that keeps me and a couple thousand other people connected to the rest of the world, because of the washed out roads due to the dams breaking (Boiling Spring Lakes), will survive tropical storm force rains and winds.

Yeah, this can't be anything that you'd want to see coming right?? I think you'll find this more a nuisance then a risk however. Not sure what the official forecast rainfall will be for your area from this newest event but I'd lean toward 2" - 3" total. A track that brings Michael a little further east might well mean you all getting closer to 3"-4" instead. Though you could use that additional rain like a hole in the head, I wouldn't think that amount would come close to approaching the extent of water that has already receded there in the recent 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, i have no idea where your local river flood stage presently stands nor what extent that a possible 3-4" of rain might impact dams or river banks there.

[northjaxpro]

The stores are going to be crazy around here. tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

This is not good news for anyone in Florida. It looks to be intensifying pretty rapidly now and the track is still very uncertain as far as how close it comes to the western Florida coast.

[chaser1]

The stores are going to be crazy around here. tomorrow.

I'll bet! Water flying off the shelves lol. Gas lines.... ugh. THAT drill.

[northjaxpro]

Ozonepete, your thoughts about Michael? Looks lije I am going to have to get things around the yard secured and done today.

[chaser1]

This is not good news for anyone in Florida. It looks to be intensifying pretty rapidly now and the track is still very uncertain as far as how close it comes to the western Florida coast.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/QuxNlHo.gif [/url]

Oddly, the only motion I could detect might have been a westward drift. Perhaps quasi-stationary due to deepening?

[northjaxpro]

Looking at that satelitte imagery and based on what the next Recon fix will be shortly, I fear Michael is very near hurricane intensity now. He is well on its way of potentially becoming a very potent cyclone. This is very ominous!!

[Extratropical94]

Pressure down to 994 per latest recon pass

050330 1958N 08529W 9252 00631 9940 +230 +190 234018 021 024 001 01

[StPeteMike]

This is not good news for anyone in Florida. It looks to be intensifying pretty rapidly now and the track is still very uncertain as far as how close it comes to the western Florida coast.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/QuxNlHo.gif [/url]

Oddly, the only motion I could detect might have been a westward drift. Perhaps quasi-stationary due to deepening?

I think what you’re seeing is the western side building more convection around it. Which means shear is indeed weakening. Maybe a little north jog there but definitely almost stationary.

[chaser1]

Crap! I need sleep lol; Better grab a cup a soup to keep me up long enough to hear what some of the recon's obs are

[tropicwatch]

Just received some more recon data. Looking like Michael is pretty much stationary with a slight pressure drop.

[chaser1]

Pressure down to 994 per latest recon pass

050330 1958N 08529W 9252 00631 9940 +230 +190 234018 021 024 001 01

Hmmm, 3 mb drop since recon was last in

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete, your thoughts about Michael? Looks lije I am going to have to get things around the yard secured and done today.

If the 00Z runs don't shift eastward and recon doesn't find it further east you guys in Jax can rest a little more easily because it would be passing further west. But there's no way of knowing yet. Pay it safe!