ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Last few frames...



Yeah, I gave up after that.

Yep after 192hrs the model becomes trash

It looks like Florence spawns...

[BYG Jacob]

GFS says let me plow through this roadblock because why not...

Looks like the "we don't want Irma to bulldoze the SE" runs from last year. Into the trash you go GFS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

GFS soundings show east-northeasterlies in the mid levels while Florence is passing south of Bermuda, which would tend to support a southwest motion (think Irma) like the UKMET shows. Not sure why the GFS doesn't indicate it. Probably the same reason the GFS sends the hurricane directly into the ridge.

Can you post an image of the UKMeT and the SW motion it shows?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here you go

[Aric Dunn]

By the way.. Gordon is likel to play a decent role in Florence's track. the models that do the most recurve wash out Gordon somewhere over Missouri and transition it to a short wave trough that helps keep the weakness in place north of florence longer.
the other models keep gordon circulation fairly intact for a day or so longer and gets absorbed.

so we need to watch that.

[plasticup]

Wow...the end of that GFS run gave Bermuda the ride of their life. They had stuff swirling all around them.

It would need watches/warnings from two systems simultaneously

[Aric Dunn]

Wow...the end of that GFS run gave Bermuda the ride of their life. They had stuff swirling all around them.

It would need watches/warnings from two systems simultaneously

like the golden girls episode.. lol

[gatorcane]

Pretty big left shift in the 00Z guidance just out for Florence. Note NHC track (OFCI) is to the right of these models:

[OuterBanker]

I tell you it it's impossible to pick a proper allegiance. Yesterday I was hoping that the GFS was right. Today I would choose the Euro. Neither seems to be able to make up it's mind.

[LarryWx]

18% GFS ensembles have a significant group targeting SE US coastline:

To add to the above post from gator:

Last 4 GEFS runs with regard to TS+ hits on the US SE coast out of ~21 members:

18Z Mon 0 hits
0Z Tue 0 hits
6Z Tue 4 hits: FL/GA border, SC/NC border, NC OB, skirt NC OB
12Z Tue 2 hits: GA/SC border, SC
———————————————-
New GEFS run (18Z Tue): 5 hits: 2 GA, 3 SC;

4 hit 9/13-4; 1 hit 9/17 after hesitating off NC and then moving SW similar to what some EPS members did. Every member that crossed 30N (~12 members) before reaching 60W recurved safely. 9 members crossed 60W below 30N on Monday. All 5 SE US hitters were from that group of 9 and at 60W were at these latitudes: 29.5, 28.0, 27.5, 26, and 22.5.

So, this is the most threatening GEFS run of at least the last 5. Together with what the very threatening 12Z UKMET suite and the more threatening 12Z EPS vs 0Z EPS showed, odds of not hitting the SE US are obviously not nearly as high as they appeared this morning.

[SFLcane]

The way I see it i still feel it’s rather unlikely Florence threatens the southeast at that latitude without feeling some kinda tug northward as the gfs is portraying infact If it tracks close to the US it will weaken the ridge and allow others to follow out to sea. Let’s hope Florence leads the pack in that direction

[Aric Dunn]

So this should be looked at.. the NAM has quite a bit more pronounced ridge and also keeps the trough as a single trough not a series of shorwaves. ( of course good for Synoptics) .. look at how early FLorence turns.. slightly lower than UKMET
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90500&fh=0

[Aric Dunn]

ANd the 00z is running.

synoptics are the same only a very small shift in position thus far.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 00z. FLorence turn west to wsw at 60h hours.. very similar set up to the NAM synoptic.

[GeneratorPower]

WSW dip at 60 hrs

[GeneratorPower]

Massive ridge all the way to CONUS

[Aric Dunn]

slightly more ridging at 72hrs and Gordon is a little more defined .. may see a another west shift.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS has nailed Florence's short-term intensity the last few days while being consistent on a recurve scenario; the ECMWF wasn't even close, far too weak.

[lando]

slightly more ridging at 72hrs and Gordon is a little more defined .. may see a another west shift.

Any graphics?

[GeneratorPower]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2018090500&fh=30

[Aric Dunn]

big difference so far from the 18z is that the 00z has more ridging and the low/trough over the Candian maritime is flatter and farther north at 84 hours by a good deal. with no short waves.