ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[AdamFirst]

GFS rolling now. Let's see if it continues to laugh in the face of your "westerly trends".

[Aric Dunn]

So Aric do we see a West shift tonight ?

most likely ( ICON already has) but it will depend on where the models are initialized at . if they are initialized with the best track from earlier than not likely much change. if they are with the current circ then most likely will see a shift. and even more of a westward motion near the gulf coast.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS rolling now. Let's see if it continues to laugh in the face of your "westerly trends".

so far it was initialized at the earlier best track location is off quite a bit from the current. so won't likely see much change from the GFS>
Unless this afternoons RAOBs input helped nail down the sub tropical jet better.

[Evil Jeremy]

36 hours in, GFS still developing this to the Yucatan's east. 48 hours, the energy of the system is on it's way to Florida, swinging through Cuba, just like the last run.

[AdamFirst]

GFS identical to 18z 48 hours in.

edit: Jeremy beat me to it.

[tailgater]

Given long term satellite estimates and surface obs. the circ is looking fairly stationary as it is still organizing some. but very evident on sat and from the obs. models will shift later if they are initialized correctly.

I see it very close to your circle, maybe a tad east of there.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=7678.5&y=6464&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS identical to 18z 48 hours in.

edit: Jeremy beat me to it.

Decent chunk to the west now at 60 hours though.

[Aric Dunn]

Given long term satellite estimates and surface obs. the circ is looking fairly stationary as it is still organizing some. but very evident on sat and from the obs. models will shift later if they are initialized correctly.

[img]https://image.ibb.co/m8OxWT/5b0617f8_6cc9_26e.png[/mg]

I see it very close to your circle, maybe a tad east of there.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=7678.5&y=6464&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

yeah hard to nail it down exactly on a map from a random website.. was going off those obs. did not want to make the circle too big lol

[AdamFirst]

Hold the phone - GFS may be finally caving here. Developing low pressure heading due north off of Cuba at 60 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS identical to 18z 48 hours in.

edit: Jeremy beat me to it.

Decent chunk to the west now at 60 hours though.

now it looks like the 12z UKMEt.. still likely initialized poorly .. just need another day.

and at 66 hours more of the convective feed back issues.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS stronger.

[Aric Dunn]

ok it lost it again.. too much feed back.. but it started out ok this time.. progress ! lol

[Aric Dunn]

though not percise. you can clearly see the vorticity moving through the central yucatan...

change the level and compare..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Steve]

Looks like it hits Panama City on a left hook as of 90H and maybe is catching a block or slowing? It first hits around Alligator Point and rolls across the bend in the state @ Wakulla/Franklin Counties

Edit inland Bay/Walton Cos and up

[AdamFirst]

Still largely a west coast rider but doesn't get inland...a little left turn at Apalachee Bay before it landfalls in Panama City.

[Evil Jeremy]

ok it lost it again.. too much feed back.. but it started out ok this time.. progress ! lol

The GFS farts in your general direction.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm. ok.. well I have looked a little closer and have done some more analysis. .. I have found a well defined circ with some vorts rotating around it.

will take some fresh eye's on it if anyone wants to toggle this loop (while I draw up an image) and see if they see what I noticed is going on? it is actually impressive the new goes16 imagery can make out at night.. I love it..

hint look just to the south of where I drew that circle earlier.. use the slider to go back and forth .. you will see it eventually.

also pay attention to the station on the western yucatan.. who can tell me why the wind direction changed ?
https://www.sailwx.info/tmp/5b063ae1_1c46_547.png


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

[AdamFirst]

Canadian is slightly further west. Mobile Bay landfall.

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z Canadian landfalls around Pensacola at 996mb.

[Aric Dunn]

ok it lost it again.. too much feed back.. but it started out ok this time.. progress ! lol

The GFS farts in your general direction.

lol well it will run out of gas soon