ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[StPeteMike]

Off to bed. Expecting to wake up to a track further east and stronger at 7 when I wake. Watches and warnings along the coast around 11 am. Watches will likely be from Pensacola to Manatee County.

[chaser1]

0Z Euro: MUCH stronger at hour 60 vs 12Z run...a beast! And a bit east of the 12Z.

All major models bring down the shear to a very favorable under 10 knots over the next few days. And then you have the W Caribbeanlike 29-30C SSTs. So, why wouldn't he strengthen a lot?

Still, hard to make sense of that much intensification in light of present shear. I realize that the westernmost cutoff was to become pulled to the north but that would still suggest some light southwesterly shear. Perhaps a small bit of energy from that cut-off might actually drop to the south??? That would be the only thing I could think of that would induce greater difluence aloft and allow outflow to spread west in any way......

[northjaxpro]

Michael has everything in place to intensify unfortunately. The bath waters of the NW Caribbean and dropping shear. Later, he will. pass through the Loop Current in the GOM.

We may be looking at an absolute beast in the making

[CrazyC83]

I wonder how high NHC will forecast the intensity in the next discussion. I'd say they will bump it to 90-95 kt, but would want to see a better core now before forecasting a major.

[chaser1]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

Perhaps, although this seems to be the point where Michael made a sharp turn to the ENE. Guess we'll see shortly

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder how high NHC will forecast the intensity in the next discussion. I'd say they will bump it to 90-95 kt, but would want to see a better core now before forecasting a major.

To be honest, considering the latest runs, I would put it at 95kts.

[LarryWx]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

Perhaps, although this seems to be the point where Michael made a sharp turn to the ENE. Guess we'll see shortly

Indeed, that's what happened again. 0Z Euro landfall near Apalachicola again but 6 hours earlier at 12Z Thursday.

[chaser1]

Shoots off to the ENE again! Looks to pass just south and east of Appalach!

[NDG]

Latest Euro is very close to its earlier 12z run in track and timing of landfall.

[Shell Mound]

The ECMWF is literally an easterly-biased Eloise (1975) 2.0 (or a high-latitude Wilma). The poleward outflow channel offsets the impact of nearshore waters. Basically the run suggests little to no weakening prior to landfall, with a period of rapid deepening over the northward-displaced Loop Current. You also have the sharp turn to the northeast, à la Eloise. However, I'm skeptical about the intensity. Short-term trends don't suggest RI in the near term, given continuing shear.

[chaser1]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!

Perhaps, although this seems to be the point where Michael made a sharp turn to the ENE. Guess we'll see shortly

Indeed, that's what happened again. 0Z Euro landfall near Apalachicola again but 6 hours earlier at 12Z Thursday.

Boy, the EURO is steadfast. I guess we'd need a higher resolution chart to see if he landfalls in Apilachacola, Carrabelle, or more like Alligator Point. If this comes to fruition, there's gonna be some nasty storm surge piling up there

[northjaxpro]

Off to bed. Expecting to wake up to a track further east and stronger at 7 when I wake. Watches and warnings along the coast around 11 am. Watches will likely be from Pensacola to Manatee County.

There will be watches xand warnings for good portions of the Florida East Coast as well. Also inland high wind warnings will likely be issued for much of the area as well.in North and Northeast Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro now 941 mb landfall pressure. sheesh

[Shell Mound]

Euro now 941 mb landfall pressure. sheesh

Landfall occurs over Cape San Blas, FL, in seventy-eight hours. The system is rapidly deepening (to 941 mb) at that time.

[northjaxpro]

[code][/code]

Euro now 941 mb landfall pressure. sheesh

Same as what the UKMET showed in its most recent run.

[HDGator]

Euro now 941 mb landfall pressure. sheesh

https://i.imgur.com/MEtLau4.png

Doesn't look good for Big Bend area and Tallahassee. He's trending the wrong way and increasing surge concerns.

[Mouton]

On the NE Fl potential, I say you are correct JaxP. I will begin my shutter placement in AM, gas up, and get the yard cleared out by Mon Evening. Will hold back on installing shutters till tues as they are a pain and also based on storm speed. With some models projecting LF on Weds this thing would have to begin moving along at a clip. Fast enough hopefully to keep the intensity a bit at bay. Really bad news for NE Fl would be a slow down and arrival in Thursday PM as I feel that it will be farther east. I said before my right side southernmost landfall prediction would be Cedar Key.

EURO recent model seems to be zeroed in on the area around Ft. Walton. The UK Met looks around Lake City.

All IMHO.

[NDG]

Looking at the Euro closer it is a good 8 hours faster with landfall than its earlier 12z run, landfall around 6 AM Thursday morning still a good 16-18 hours slower than the GFS timing, 935mb prior to landfall! Around 10 miles further west than its earlier run.

[northjaxpro]

I feel it important to not forget about the people in the Carolinas who were impacted by Florence to pay attention to the developments of Michael. The latest EURO and UKMET shows Michael moving up northeast later this week through the same areas that were impacted by Florence a few weeks ago. Folks there need to stay abrested!

[Mouton]

EURO recent model seems to be zeroed in on the area around Ft. Walton. Er scratch that, getting late meant Panama City

All IMHO.