ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The door has been closed. Major shift!
Yeah, that is a huge SW shift from 12z. Windshield wiper models are on full speed right now. It's one run so as always we won't get to excited. But it is following suit with the earlier UKMET. We'll see what tonight's 00z brings with the GFS and Euro. Maybe the GFS is having its usual 18z happy hour drink right now.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ridge closed for the time being, next shortwave should tell the tale...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
similar to the 12z Euro yesterday with the synoptic setup down stream
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Deepens it to a c5, barely misses Bermuda, and still going west.
Last edited by Kazmit on Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
no trough to speak of.. at 174 hours.. way out there but. when a trough does come the ridge will pump up ahead of it. and drive florence sw..
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
This just screams SW turn...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Look at the possibly 2 other hurricanes right behind wow it’s gonna be wild next few weeks
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
SFLcane wrote:Look at the possibly 2 other hurricanes right behind wow it’s gonna be wild next few weeks
Some "quiet season" we're having.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
If I'm reading the GFS correct, and I'd like to think that I am, then at 198 hours it appears to move Florence NW right smack into the ridge. If that's true...GFS, Go home, you're drunk.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Moving NW right through the ridge...because that makes sense.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
GFS doing what it did during several Irma runs and driving it through the ridge...
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Looks like a doomsday scenario for New England now...
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:GFS doing what it did during several Irma runs and driving it through the ridge...
Yeah, if that particular ridge verifies that looked like a FL/GA storm to me
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
lol is that impossible for the storm to do? Plowing through the ridge I mean. I guess it could somewhat but it seems weird.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Obviously the GFS has left the building by this point. I think the big thing to take from this run is that there are still major variables at play at around hours 120 to 140 which will make major differences in the long term location of Florence. 18z is a massive shift west by the GFS. The devil is in the details around hours 120 to 140.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
GFS says let me plow through this roadblock because why not...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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