ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[bella_may]

HMON shifted slightly to the west very close to Pensacola and stronger

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF @ 45hrs already 108 kts at 944mb!

[Dean4Storms]

HMON shifted slightly to the west very close to Pensacola and stronger

Actually over Ft. Walton Bch @ 957mb and 99kts.

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF @ 45hrs already 108 kts at 944mb!

Yeah, it'll probably show low 930's at landfall. I guess its possible, but sheesh I don't wanna think that can happen.

[chaser1]

0Z GEPS members seem more tightly concentrated around a point roughly 50 miles east of "shot-gun" spread from it's prior ensemble run

[LarryWx]

UKMET is in:

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46

well luckily the NHC is only following the UKMET for track and not intensity lol..

a modest 941 mb lol

Furthest West the UK ever gets Michael is 86.1W..... Hmmm

Yes, but near the latitude of 26N, the 86.1W is actually the furthest west of the last 3. The prior run was at 85.5W and the one before that was at 85.3W. Furthermore, this run was further west at US landfall than the prior 3 runs. You have to go back 4 runs to have a US landfall further west than this new run:


- 0Z 10/8 run: 84.5W
- 12Z 10/7 run: 83.6W
- 0Z 10/7 run: 83.5W
- 12Z 10/6 run: 83.8W
- 0Z 10/6 run: 86.4W

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF 60 hours 927mb South of say, Panama City

[ColdMiser123]

Strongest runs of the HWRF/HMON yet.

[LarryWx]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, 0Z Euro at 24 is a whopping 100 miles east of the 12Z run!

6 mb stronger as well.

[northjaxpro]

Yes it is Larry. That is pretty telling to me on this 0Z run.The worst possible scenario for North Florida if this is right.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro east of the 12z run.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro much slower.. meanders in the NW carrib for almost another 24hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro much slower.. meanders in the NW carrib for almost another 24hrs.

Not a good thing for Florida.

[chaser1]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at the eastward initial adjustment; I have to say though, I am a bit surprised at the very near term increase in intensity verses it's 12Z run

[SunnyThoughts]

wow a full 20 mb drop from last run at 48 hours.

[chaser1]

wow a full 20 mb drop from last run at 48 hours.

actually, 21 mb to be exact.... that's insane. At 48 hours, it's also one degree east of the same point from the prior run.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: MUCH stronger at hour 60 vs 12Z run...a beast! And a bit east of the 12Z.

All major models bring down the shear to a very favorable under 10 knots over the next few days. And then you have the W Caribbeanlike 29-30C SSTs. So, why wouldn't he strengthen a lot?

[northjaxpro]

Wow that is an insane drop in pressure.

[LarryWx]

After all of that, he looks like he may actually landfall a little WEST of the 12Z due to getting to the coast sooner!