ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bucman]

If this moves closer to NE gulf will that increase effects in the Tampa / St Pete area and if so what?

[caneman]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

Which models? Most of the reliable ones have shifted East

[caneman]

If this moves closer to NE gulf will that increase effects in the Tampa / St Pete area and if so what?

Yes, if it's a major and goes big bend area, I'm guessing up to 70 mph sustained if it's a major.

[caneman]

Convection finally starting to wrap around the LLC. Soon we'll have a good fix on the center. Definitely east of where models had it up to now.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/3Yb3Cvl.gif [/url]

How will this eastern component effect the overall track?

Looks like its closest to UKMET initialization.

So far the UKMET seems to be the only one not shifting around much and seems most spot on

[ronjon]

We'll have a good idea which model handles the initialization correctly by tomorrow morning. UKMET at western tip of Cuba at 984 mb by tomorrow at 1 pm.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/cuba/sea-level-pressure/20181008-2100z.html

[robbielyn]

Robbielynn said for South Fl residents not to let their guard down. There is no guard up. No one feels that anything is going to happen in SE FL. What do you feel might happen in that area?
Thank you for the info....

not exactly. I was merely explaining what Mike Watkins was saying about ts percentages along the majority of the peninsula. it was 10 percent when the LLC was west. just imagine now that it is North and east meaning ts winds percentage would increase. over the peninsula. so as usual keep ur guard up. if it hits cedar key, more of the state, than earlier this am will feel more impacts. so just be vigilent. don't panic at all. but just be prepared for possible Eastward movement of the track increasing percentages. that's all. personally I'm going for apalach as east as it goes not big bend and praying it stays west of apalach. just my amateur opinion.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 19.8°N 85.4°W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 270 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 35 NM

[Kazmit]

Kind of eerie that this storm is named Michael as we approach Halloween. I think the chances of a major hurricane hitting the FL Panhandle are increasing. Need a sharp increase in shear before landfall to help limit this.

Hurricane Michael Myers.

[artist]

NHC_Surge
@NHC_Surge
·
3h
The risk of dangerous storm surge continues to increase as TS #Michael is expected to be a hurricane and affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge. Residents in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system

[jdjaguar]

Just took a look at the latest UKMET run.

Right front quadrant smack over JAX.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening,

Need to ride up to the Tampa area Thursday evening to pick up my father for a Wedding down in Marco Island this weekend. What kind of weather can I expect, Thursday evening and Friday Morning going south.

[marionstorm]

Please Lord don't make me suffer through another Duke Energy hurricane.

[psyclone]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC uses the Suwannee river as the eastern extent of the hurricane watch (that makes geographic sense and happens to be the border between the TPA and TLH CWAs.) But I wouldn't be shocked to see TS and storm surge watches extend south of there into the TPA CWA as the system is expected to have a pretty solid gale windfield in the northeast and southeast quads and the nature coast is very surge prone. Recall the big surge at cedar key during Hermine...there were no hurricane conditions there but Levy, Citrus and Hernando counties had a very respectable water rise

[Blown Away]

100 mph hurricane into Big Bend is kinda rare, the surge could be unreal.

[GCANE]

Looking at water vapor, convective debris from popups over Yucatan are now being entrained into Michael's middle level core.
The jet from the PV streamer is all but dead.
He's going to ramp up tonight.
ULL over the GOM is sinking fast.

[northjaxpro]

Just took a look at the latest UKMET run.

Right front quadrant smack over JAX.

Yeah I talked about that earlier. Definitely a big concern for our area, if the trends east holds, which unfortunately looks to keep doing.

[Abdullah]

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

The 18Z GFS run still had a bad initialization point for Michael; too far west. We need to wait for the 00Z runs.

By the way, the NorthEast Gulf of Mexico is Ocean.

[robbielyn]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC uses the Suwannee river as the eastern extent of the hurricane watch (that makes geographic sense and happens to be the border between the TPA and TLH CWAs.) But I wouldn't be shocked to see TS and storm surge watches extend south of there into the TPA CWA as the system is expected to have a pretty solid gale windfield in the northeast and southeast quads and the nature coast is very surge prone. Recall the big surge at cedar key during Hermine...there were no hurricane conditions there but Levy, Citrus and Hernando counties had a very respectable water rise

yeah makes sense.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at water vapor, convective debris from popups over Yucatan are now being entrained into Michael's middle level core.
The jet from the PV streamer is all but dead.
He's going to ramp up tonight.
ULL over the GOM is sinking fast.

https://imgur.com/Z4npiAf

yeah and you can see the anti cyclone building in from the west. that narrow trough is quickly collapsing.

[DestinHurricane]

I would expect hurricane watch to be from Walton County to Steinhatchee river