CPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

We have finnally the TD.

28/1200 UTC 16.8N 111.8W T2.0/2.0 90E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Indeed we have the TD.

EP, 16, 2018082812, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1114W, 25, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, epC02018 to ep162018,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite
presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now
consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with
the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a
circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass
at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the
environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected
to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional
strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the
intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the
guidance.

Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295
degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the
southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer the depression on the same general track during
the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is
expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the
west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track
guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

This thread is dead.We may be looking at another major with Norman and another threat to Hawaii.Come and have comments about this developing system.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 16, 2018082818, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1121W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[Kingarabian]

Seems like the NHC is siding with the Euro and UKMET in regards to a WSW dip in the track.

The Euro in general has been consistent in showing this reach Hawaii's vicinity in the medium/long range, and the past two runs show it actually about to make landfall:


The GFS up to 72-48 hours ago was showing the same solution as the Euro but now has it further away from Hawaii in its last few runs:

[Kingarabian]

Nice structure on 16E:

[wxman57]

Note that GOES-17 is now active on the Slider page. It's much farther west than GOES-16 so it's closer to being overhead.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

[cycloneye]

Hopefully GOES-17 goes operational very soon to get the nitid images that we are getting with GOES-16.

[wx98]

783
WTPZ41 KNHC 282031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The cloud pattern is a little better organized this afternoon with
numerous banding features, but the latest available microwave data
suggest that the cyclone does not have an inner core yet. Since the
satellite intensity estimates have not changed from earlier today,
the winds are kept at 30 kt in this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to continue within an environment of low
shear and high SSTs for the next several days. On this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and for the depression to
reach hurricane status in about 36 hours with additional
intensification thereafter. The HWRF is still the most aggressive
model and forecasts the depression to become a very strong
hurricane. The official forecast follows the remainder of the
guidance, which supports a more modest intensification.

Based on satellite fixes, the initial motion is toward the
west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is located south
of a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast by the global models
to remain strong and expand westward. This flow pattern should force
the cyclone to turn more to west and even toward the west-southwest
during the next 5 days. Since models are in good agreement with
this reasonable solution, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
guidance envelope, and very close to the HCCA corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Chris90]

This thread is dead.We may be looking at another major with Norman and another threat to Hawaii.Come and have comments about this developing system.

I'm here! I've been following 16E as it develops, I just haven't chimed in yet. I was thinking about making my initial intensity guess, but these EPAC storms keep wanting to prove me wrong this year.
I have to say, this forecasted WSW dip and then the possibility of 16E going back to the W-NW heading and affecting Hawaii reminds me of Irma last year for the Antilles. If this is what 16E wants to do I hope future Norman adds a more northerly component to his movement and goes north of Hawaii. Early days, we'll have to see how this situation evolves.

Is the great Hawaiian shear forecast to be in place to rip him apart if he gets too close? I haven't looked all that closely at the models yet.

[Kingarabian]

Other than GFS, the model trends today (most importantly the Euro) means Hawaii has to keep a close eye on to be Herman.

Navy, CMC, Euro, and UKMET show Norman losing a lot of latitude by the time it reaches the CPAC, followed by what appears to be less heights over the Hawaiian islands.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/RtNJY1e


https://imgur.com/HxMDukJ

EC snap shots 12z



ens
https://imgur.com/DITns4X

[cycloneye]

Can we say Hello to NORMAN?

EP, 16, 2018082900, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1134W, 45, 1000, TS

29/0000 UTC 17.3N 113.5W T3.0/3.0 16E -- East Pacific

[DioBrando]

Will Norman be a strong, good-looking, handsome cyclone like Hector or Lane or will he be less photogenic like Fabio and John?

[cycloneye]

Looks like RI may be starting as it looks great.

[cjrciadt]

Multiple models turn this up to a Cat 3/4 by Fri/Sat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over
the past several hours. A band of very cold-topped convection now
spirals well over halfway around the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers
from both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a
current intensity of 45 kt. On this basis the system is being
upgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named
tropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane
season. Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and
through an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level
air, continued strengthening is likely. In fact, the various Rapid
Intensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI.
Therefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35
kt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively. This is
also close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run.

The most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes
indicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the
previous track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the
same as before, 290/9 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward.
This should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon.
Later in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and
this will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest.
The official track forecast is a little south of the previous one,
but close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus
predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Ntxw]

Forecast now to be the next major almost cat 4. Could be around for awhile.

[somethingfunny]

History tells me not to worry about a storm approaching Hawaii from the East but even a scenario like Iselle or Darby would be devastating for the flooded Big Island. Hope it veers away like Lester, Felicia and the like.