EPAC: ALETTA - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

It seems to me that low level circulation which is still broad is separated from the MLC which is to the NE of it.

[Kingarabian]

No upgrade yet.

It's arguably not classifiable yet. Give it 12 more hours.

There's pretty good hints on MW that there is a closed circulation:

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with a
low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better defined, and it
appears that a tropical depression is forming. Continued
development is expected, and advisories could be initiated on this
system as early as this evening or early Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

HWRF up to cat 3.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track transitioned to TD.

EP, 02, 2018060600, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1054W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, TRANSITIONED, epA12018 to ep022018,

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan site already has the TD 2-E floater.

[Yellow Evan]

Not pretty but I agree it's likely ready.

Edit: Looks better now than when I last looked at it several hours ago.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022018 06/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 53 63 71 80 84 82 84 78 71
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 53 63 71 80 84 82 84 78 71
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 59 69 76 81 83 77 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 6 6 13 5 11 15 12 15 12 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 2 -2 4 6 7 0 -2 5 16
SHEAR DIR 263 259 251 351 301 295 282 357 59 92 119 137 156
SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.4 27.9 28.7 28.0 26.5 27.0 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 159 161 164 150 144 149 145 129 130 128
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -52.3 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 3
700-500 MB RH 72 70 73 74 76 77 65 61 73 78 66 63 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 32 34 33 37 37 35
850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 10 8 4 20 63 58 53 66 103 118 121
200 MB DIV 124 133 141 152 143 82 77 25 31 18 65 10 56
700-850 TADV -8 -7 -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -11 -2 -1 1 0 5
LAND (KM) 523 548 633 685 685 524 443 764 900 722 673 806 668
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 13.8 13.3 13.0 14.1 16.1 15.1 13.6 15.1 17.2 16.3 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.2 107.0 107.1 106.6 105.6 107.4 110.6 110.9 110.1 112.2 113.2 112.6
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 5 12 15 13 4 12 11 3 10
HEAT CONTENT 46 38 45 59 67 42 15 22 45 19 5 6 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 57.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 22. 24. 22. 26. 24. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 33. 41. 50. 54. 52. 54. 48. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.4

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 TWO 06/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 9.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.48 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.91 7.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 5.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 3.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 52.9% 40.7% 31.9% 0.0% 49.4% 52.5% 39.7%
Logistic: 16.5% 53.5% 47.9% 43.9% 33.8% 57.9% 66.9% 35.7%
Bayesian: 5.2% 41.9% 21.2% 8.6% 4.4% 23.7% 27.8% 29.1%
Consensus: 13.6% 49.4% 36.6% 28.2% 12.8% 43.7% 49.1% 34.8%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 TWO 06/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

05/2345 UTC 14.8N 104.7W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Hot towers going off before the sun goes down. Chance for it establish a CDO soon.

[Yellow Evan]

New burst is LLC induced. Old MLC near 107W likely fizzling out. This should slowly become vertically stacked over the next 12-24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,the SSD floater has it.

[cycloneye]

Peaks at 85kts in this first advisory.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NO THREAT
TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 105.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 105.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward and then westward motion with a decrease in
forward speed are expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm overnight and then
strengthen to a hurricane by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

During the past several hours, a prominent convective band began
developing in association with the low pressure system that we have
been tracking south of Mexico during the past few days. In using
that band for Dvorak estimates, TAFB provided a satellite intensity
estimate of T2.0/30 kt while SAB provided an estimate of T1.5/25
kt. In addition, GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite imagery showed
that the low had developed a closed surface circulation and a
well-defined center. Advisories are therefore being initiated on
Tropical Depression Two-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt based
on an earlier partial ASCAT pass.

The depression is currently moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
However, due to a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico,
the cyclone is expected to turn westward and slow down during the
next 24 hours. By days 3-5, the cyclone should reach a weakness in
the ridge, allowing it to turn back toward the northwest but
maintain its slow motion. While the dynamical models all generally
agree on this scenario, there are some noticeable differences in the
guidance. The ECMWF lies to the south of the other models, while
the HWRF is to the north and generally faster than the other
guidance. For this first official forecast, the NHC prediction lies
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and is of
average confidence.

Environmental conditions appear ideal for intensification. Sea
surface temperatures will be close to 30 degrees Celsius for the
next 36 hours, while at the same time deep-layer shear will be very
low and upper-level divergence will be high. In response, the Rapid
Intensification Indices are giving a 50/50 chance of a 45-kt
increase in 36 hours and a 55-kt increase in 48 hours. As a
result, the NHC official intensity forecast is rather aggressive and
lies slightly above the highest guidance through the first 3 days,
making the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is
expected on days 4 and 5 when the hurricane reaches cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.1N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.3N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.5N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.7N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.8N 109.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 15.3N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[CyclonicFury]

Unlike with 01E last month the environment looks quite favorable for intensification. Would not be surprised to see a major hurricane from this.

[Chris90]

It's looking like Two-E might be quick to intensify. I'll go ahead and guess it's a hurricane 24 hours from now.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,the SSD floater has it.

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02E/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif[img]

Thank you. Nice find. I went on the website and it said not available. Will use this link.

[Kingarabian]

Has the look of a WPAC invest that usually become super typhoon.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably a tropical storm

[Yellow Evan]

Likely Aletta at the next cycle.

[Kingarabian]

I'm assuming Tropical Tidbits uses the ACTF -- looks like we have Aletta for the next update.