SWIO: CEBILE - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

0015Z

WTIO20 FMEE 030005 RRB
24H, VALID 2018/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtio30.fmee..txt, recovered at: 2018-02-03 0045Z

WTIO30 FMEE 030024 RRB
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF CEBILE WAS VERY
FLUCTUATING. UNDER THE EFFECT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
CONSTRAINT, CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AREA HAS QUASIALLY DISAPPEARED
IN INFRARED DATA. THIS IS ALSO REMARKABLE ON 2331 UTC MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THIS UPPER CONSTRAINT CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING INTENSITY AND
CEBILE IS NOW IN A LOWER-TERM PHASE OF WEAKENING.
THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TAKE NOW THE
CYCLONE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DISPLACEMENT WILL
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE TODAY. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH AT
SOUTH ALLOWS TO MOVE EAST HIGH PRESSURES AND THUS ORIENTED THE
CEBILE'S TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD BUT WITHOUT REAL ACCELERATION. THE
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE COULD, HOWEVER, DISTURB THIS
PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD FROM THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED THE ENSEMBLIST
FORECAST OF THE IFS NUMERICAL MODEL.
THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONTEXT IS NOT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY FOR THE CEBILE CYCLONE. ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM ALLOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT. CEBILE'S
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECAY, ALL THE MORE IT WILL EVOLVE OVER
COOLER SST, AND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING BEFORE STARTING ITS
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT, FAR FROM THE CENTER.=

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/
image @time of this post.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Pretty neat decay of TC #Cebile. High-shear environment where vortex tilt is perpendicular to the shear vector, downshear-right. This is optimal (Jones 1995) since perturbation shear opposes env shear. Reasor & Montgomery (2003) showed this config is stable under weak VRW damping

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/960558478736666630

[wxman57]

Looks like it's back to hurricane intensity this morning. Eye clearing out. NOAA Dvorak says T1.5, but more like T4.0.

[NotSparta]

Looks like it's back to hurricane intensity this morning. Eye clearing out. NOAA Dvorak says T1.5, but more like T4.0.

Cloud tops are cooling too

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like it's back to hurricane intensity this morning. Eye clearing out. NOAA Dvorak says T1.5, but more like T4.0.

Cloud tops are cooling too

I think we should have an award for storm that just won't die off and make multiple comeback. I say we call it the Jose award.

[cycloneye]

@JMGarciaRivera
#Cyclone #Cebile still exhibiting tropical characteristics: Persistent convection near center, strong winds close to center, warm core, etc. JTWC agrees, but the official WMO agency (RSMC La Reunion) gives it 'post-tropical' characteristics.

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/961305881592950784

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The JTWC wording Topical Cyclone translates to = hurricane in this basin confusing
mauritians people.
JTWC uses only the generic term Tropical Cyclone to refer to systems of all intensities in warning status.

JTWC is not part of the WMO. It has no 'mandate' and 'regional responsibility'. It answers only to the US Navy and US taxpayer.

Yup JTWC isn't part of the WMO but this region is part of their responsibility since 1980 along with the whole Pacific region and Indian ocean and just recently began issuing warnings every 6 hours for the SHEM. What a great accomplishment! It's been around since 1959 and has more followers worldwide than any other agency and is well respected.

They been using the term Tropical Cyclone for many years to describe all intensities in the SHEM. Nothing new.

Yeah true but they are not always right and neither are the rsmc. Both have no access to
recon data in this basin. But that is no reason to totally ignore RSMC and their official advisories in the shem. JMA advisories ever ignored in the wespac?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JTWC wording Topical Cyclone translates to = hurricane in this basin confusing
mauritians people.
JTWC uses only the generic term Tropical Cyclone to refer to systems of all intensities in warning status.

JTWC is not part of the WMO. It has no 'mandate' and 'regional responsibility'. It answers only to the US Navy and US taxpayer.

Yup JTWC isn't part of the WMO but this region is part of their responsibility since 1980 along with the whole Pacific region and Indian ocean and just recently began issuing warnings every 6 hours for the SHEM. What a great accomplishment! It's been around since 1959 and has more followers worldwide than any other agency and is well respected.

They been using the term Tropical Cyclone for many years to describe all intensities in the SHEM. Nothing new.

Yeah true but they are not always right and neither are the rsmc. Both have no access to
recon data in this basin. But that is no reason to totally ignore RSMC and their official advisories in the shem. JMA advisories ever ignored in the wespac?

Why could we even say the JTWC is the most followed worldwide?

First of all, the CMA has several times more followers than the JTWC! The JTWC's use is mostly limited to hardcore met enthusiasts like us, some news agencies and not to the general public. They acknowledge that they are by the military, for the military that is why they are "unofficial." Not that they are inaccurate, but they are not to be taken for emergencies, alerts, etc.

For the JMA, HKO, CMA, PAGASA, KMA and numerous others they are aspiring to deliver their info to as many people as possible. Not to mention the hundreds of millions of folks if not billions, including the 1.3 billion in China alone, who listen and cater to them.

Someone is turning a blind eye not just on the JMA but on any other agency. We have a Facebook group with over 30,000 members that uses multiple agencies' forecasts and analyses, not limited to the JTWC and JMA.

I wouldn't want to mention that nearly every storm for him that looks subjectively impressive becomes a super typhoon or "this looks like 200 kts! Shame on JMA" for him while flooding other basins' threads with how much superior the JTWC or the West Pacific typhoons while ruling out the possibilities of storms actually being weaker than Dvorak estimates. On behalf of the West Pac forum, I apologize for this, Digital-TC-Chaser.

In short, the JTWC has no mandate. Period. There's nothing wrong choosing them as a source of information but there's already something fishy when this comes to the point of discrediting any other agency