ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

12Z Euro running
https://i.imgur.com/PbiCUFH.png

Slightly north from 0z.

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro at 48 has a very slightly weaker blocking high with Flo in nearly identical position. My guess based on this: she won't go as far SW or as far back offshore as prior run. Better news for down here if so. Let's see.

[chris_fit]

She's heading SW again, right on the coast.

[tolakram]

[clambite]

Well there you have it...3 different answers. Lol.

If you want a fourth, it's high tide at Atlantic Beach bridge (Morehead City area) on Thur. at 11:36 AM AND 11:56 PM. Fri 12:27 PM. SAT 12:47AM and 122PM

[Ken711]

She's heading SW again, right on the coast.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro at 48 has a very slightly weaker blocking high with Flo in nearly identical position. My guess based on this: she won't go as far SW or as far back offshore as prior run. Better news for down here if so. Let's see.

Confirmed by 72 hour location. High different orientation should take it back inland sooner and not as far south. Good for SAV at least.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: ~50 miles NW of its 0Z location at hour 84 right on the coast rather than offshore

[PTPatrick]

Seems like some of the models are a little less bullish on the strengthening over be Gulf Stream and some are showing 960s at the coat. I don’t buy that. But I the intensity forecast here is certainly going to be a tough one. Fact is, with current size, the surge on the north side will be rediculous.

[tolakram]

This may be a landfall before moving SW.

[chris_fit]

She's turning DUE SOUTH at 84 hours

Edit - and then due W at 92

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro hour 96: Hits CHS from only a barely offshore position (maybe only 10 miles offshore at most) instead of SAV hit from 50 miles offshore like the 0Z had. So, significant N change from 0Z.

[tolakram]

Moves rapidly inland from here, just north of west.

[hurricaneCW]

What a terrible run for the coast, at least last night's run was further offshore and limited the freshwater flooding somewhat.

[Bocadude85]

Based on the 12z models I think the NHC track is just about spot on.

[tolakram]

[jdjaguar]

12Z Euro hour 96: Hits CHS from only a barely offshore position (maybe only 10 miles offshore at most) instead of SAV hit from 50 miles offshore like the 0Z had. So, significant N change from 0Z.

Models seem to be converging w/ a Wilmington NC/Myrtle Beach/Charleston... inland SC solution.

[Palmcitycane]

Is there any data on which model is verifying or most accurate so far with Florence's track?