ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[cjrciadt]

The 70 mile eye the HWRF said days ago still might happen!

[otowntiger]

Looks like the Euro weakens it quite a bit before it comes inland. Lets hope that trend continues, even if some of us that may be closer to the landfall are not happy about that. Its better than having a cat 4/5 barreling at you like a train. of course rainfall is still a huge concern in any of these solutiions and plenty of folks need to be ready for lots of inland flooding wherever she goes, but at least it may (emphasis on the word 'may') not have the same devastating wind that it could have had. Also there is a chance that a good bit of the heaviest rain will remain offshore as the storm decays somewhat. We'll see. Just looking for hopeful signs, and i think there are some.

[tolakram]

Animations from recent model runs.

0Z Euro


6Z GFS

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[jdray]

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

[BobHarlem]

12Z early models:

[Ken711]

12Z early models:

https://i.imgur.com/4JatMnn.png

Where is that accessed from?

[Ken711]

6Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/0H73Yqz.gif

The HWRF has sure been consistent with the nearly same landfall location the last day or so.

[northjaxpro]

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

Man did we get painfully reminded about this during Irma last year here. Irma was a weakening Cat 1 cane wwhen it came through here, and still caused major storm surge flooding in the St. Johns River.

[BobHarlem]

12Z early models:

https://i.imgur.com/4JatMnn.png

Where is that accessed from?

The link is in the image (bottom left)

[Ken711]

12Z early models:

https://i.imgur.com/4JatMnn.png

Where is that accessed from?

The link is in the image (bottom left)

Thanks!

[jdjaguar]

:sun:

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

Man did we get painfully reminded about this during Irma last year here. Irma was a weakening Cat 1 cane wwhen it came through here, and still caused major storm surge flooding in the St. Johns River.

the angle of approach of IRMA exacerbated the flooding by pushing the north-flowing St. Johns into the bend.

[ronjon]

:sun:

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

Man did we get painfully reminded about this during Irma last year here. Irma was a weakening Cat 1 cane wwhen it came through here, and still caused major storm surge flooding in the St. Johns River.

Although in this case, if the storm approached from the NE, winds would be blowing offshore.

[northjaxpro]

:sun:

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

Man did we get painfully reminded about this during Irma last year here. Irma was a weakening Cat 1 cane wwhen it came through here, and still caused major storm surge flooding in the St. Johns River.

Although in this case, if the storm approached from the NE, winds would be blowing offshore.

This is provided in this situation as long as Florence's landfall point stays north of Jax then the counter- clockwise wind flow would stay from the southwest and keep the winds blowing offshore .

[ronjon]

:sun:

Man did we get painfully reminded about this during Irma last year here. Irma was a weakening Cat 1 cane wwhen it came through here, and still caused major storm surge flooding in the St. Johns River.

Although in this case, if the storm approached from the NE, winds would be blowing offshore.

This is provided in this situation as long as Florence's landfall point stays north of Jax then the counter- clockwise wind flow would stay from the southwest and keep the winds blowing offshore .

Think you meant counterclockwise Northjax - but I think the chances of Flo straying south of Jax are pretty remote at this point. But you never know until it landfalls. Be watching 12z Euro intently this afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

Although in this case, if the storm approached from the NE, winds would be blowing offshore.

This is provided in this situation as long as Florence's landfall point stays north of Jax then the counter- clockwise wind flow would stay from the southwest and keep the winds blowing offshore .

Think you meant counterclockwise Northjax - but I think the chances of Flo straying south of Jax are pretty remote at this point. But you never know until it landfalls. Be watching 12z Euro intently this afternoon.

I clearly said counter-clockwise ronjon in my previous posts. I think you simply overlooked that. No problem.

[chaser1]

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

The major problem with the Jacksonville area is the St Johns River and it's tributaries. The flooding from Irma exposed just how bad it can get here.
Any closer approach could mean additional water/storm surge into the St Johns River and cause some minor flooding.

Under normal circumstances that would be true. In the event where a hurricane might be approaching from the north (Florence perhaps drifting SSW to south to a point offshore of Savannah), the counterclockwise winds would actually tend to push water "out" of the St. John's. Rather then a long fetch of water being piled up and being driven toward the coast from a southeast approaching storm, the counterclockwise winds from Flo would be coming primarily from the west and over land.

(Edit: just now read this point was already well addressed already)

[SouthFLTropics]

For what it's worth the 12z GFS is a hair north at 24 hours.

[Ken711]

For what it's worth the 12z GFS is a hair north at 24 hours.

Could the stall off the coast be further west of Wilmington toward Morehead City and Hatteras perhaps?

[Bocadude85]

For what it's worth the 12z GFS is a hair north at 24 hours.

Could the stall off the coast be further west of Wilmington toward Morehead City and Hatteras perhaps?

It looks like GFS has Florence hitting Wilmington while moving west