ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Aric Dunn]

http://i65.tinypic.com/xaxtm8.png

Classic case of the center being pulled to the deep convection. it may try to start wrapping around now.

[chaser1]

Odd, stony silence here now though. Hmm.

yeah it is weird. though maybe everyone was thinking it is likely already dead from shear.

That, or some of us unplussed at the recon data confirming that which we were already fairly confident of.

[GCANE]

Upper and Mid-Level Water Vapor ahead of Kirk into the Mid-Carb looks very supportive.
Actually, Low-Level Water Vapor is filling in as well.
Rumors of Kirk's early demise maybe premature.

[LarryWx]

So yeah 65 seems reasonable a few flagged sfmr and FL but plenty supporting 65 to 70 mph.

but 65 looks like the right adjustment.

Based on this unexpected strengthening, I suddenly have an urge to buy some lottery tickets and it won’t be me picking the numbers.

[TheStormExpert]

I like the high OHC water in about 100 hrs.
Classic West-Carib spin-up fuel.

http://i66.tinypic.com/10qhzi9.gif

The whole Caribbean is a tropical cyclone graveyard.

[Dean4Storms]

If Kirk keeps gaining latitude at this rate he might have to dance with the greater Antilles.

[GCANE]

Nice symmetrical ice cap over Kirk with radial outflow SE of the CoC.
A bit lower in the cirrus, really nice radial outflow W of the CoC.

[brohavwx]

If the system ends up a lot stronger before it hits that sheer... What that likely mean that the storm would not be able to weaken all the way down to a tropical low / wave?

The stronger it gets the more likely it will have more of an effect on the adjacent systems in the region/basin and it 'might' start affecting the shear forecast as much as the shear forecast has been its developmental forecast in the last 24-48 hours. But we'll see how this unfolds ... its certainly has done as it wants.

[Aric Dunn]

If Kirk were to slow down even just a few more mph could easily see a hurricane out of the this. the CDO has a good rotation with it so it would not take much to see banding start. however it is just not stacked over the LLC.

[brohavwx]

If Kirk were to slow down even just a few more mph could easily see a hurricane out of the this. the CDO has a good rotation with it so it would not take much to see banding start. however it is just not stacked over the LLC.

Reminds me of Tomas as it approached us - mind you, from much farther south (or SE) - it got vertically stack as it got to us. There is much that reminds me of that time.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Kirk found a nice sweet spot but that won’t last, that wall of shear is not going to do it any favors.

[LarryWx]

If Kirk keeps gaining latitude at this rate he might have to dance with the greater Antilles.

I’m wondering about this myself assuming he’s actually been tugged north and we’re not being deceived by satellite loops and when considering the not forecasted strengthening. Apparently recon confirmed this north tug?

[chaser1]

If Kirk were to slow down even just a few more mph could easily see a hurricane out of the this. the CDO has a good rotation with it so it would not take much to see banding start. however it is just not stacked over the LLC.

Overnight/early morning, IR began to show evidence of partial eye feature though I couldn't corroborate that with the BD curve. Now again I think i'm seeing a partial eye feature attempting to close off along with a potential band developing to the S.E. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see subsequent recon passes begin to advertise gusts to 70 knots within the small tight core. It's fascinating to me how some of these recent year small tight core tropical cyclones more aptly resemble a small mesoscale evolution of a tornado relative to the typically slower broad banded evolution that we're so commonly used to seeing within tropical cyclone structures.

[chaser1]

Looks like Kirk found a nice sweet spot but that won’t last, that wall of shear is not going to do it any favors.

All things small and large do eventually die. The more profound question might be, exactly what occurs before that happens.

[chaser1]

If not for the anticipated trajectory and distance from Barbados, I'd think that any data from recon suggesting continued pressure drop and an increase in top end gusts might have spured the government of Barbados to even consider posting a Hurricane watch. Luckily, Kirks' tight core seems to be gaining a bit of latitude. The timing of expected shear seems so fluid right now. Depending on timing I think it's reasonable to assume the possibility of hurricane force gusts for Martinique and points north given the present organizational trend but on the other-hand, these small core systems are fragile and once beginning to feel the effects of strong upper level shear can very quickly unravel it's small tight wind field.

[GCANE]

Extrap 997.6mb
Down another 1mb

[chaser1]

Extrap 997.6mb
Down another 1mb

Any guesses for lowest pressure prior to the point of weakening?? Think i'll go with 992 mb

[GCANE]

[tolakram]