ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro 120 hrs in Savannah GA....Didnt see that coming.

[supercane4867]

12z EC all the way to Savannah?

[artist]

EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa

We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.


Oops, you mean time between frames on the model. You are correct, 24 hours. I am wrong.

[chris_fit]

I was expecting Business As Usual form the Euro since it's been very consistent - and now this?????

[HurricaneFrances04]

EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa

We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.

weather.us has the Euro at 6 hour increments.

[supercane4867]

Remember, even if the center is offshore the eyewall will be likely onshore due to the large size of eye

[chris_fit]

[Aric Dunn]

alrighty then..

well if that happens sooner and more offshore over the gulf then central georiga is in the loop.. this is getting crazy now..

[pgoss11]

The 06Z NAVGEM today has a similar looking run only it's a little farther offshore before the west and southwest turn

[chris_fit]

If that somehow verifies - I applaud the governor of SC for making the call of the century to evacuate the entire coastline of SC. Pure luck, but still.

[ronjon]

What a radical change from the ECM? What will the NHC do now? it literally rakes the coast from Cape Fear to Savannah on this run.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I was expecting Business As Usual form the Euro since it's been very consistent - and now this?????

I wouldn't say it's too different. It has Florence moving slower, so the turn to the SW happens offshore instead of onshore.

[FLeastcoast]

EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa

We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.

I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??

[TxDisasterHorn]

WOW that model is nuts.

[artist]

We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.

I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??

I am not a met, but I don’t see that happening, at this point.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow that's a hell of a curve ball from the 12z Euro, looks like it caught the GFS bug. I can't wait to see the Weather Channel explain this new run . Will be very telling to see the 12z EURO ensembles to see if this was a fluke or not.

[Steve]

Euro 144 over (just north of) the ATL after moving inland near Tybee Island.

[tallywx]

Not a single one of the GFS ensembles shows a track like the Euro. Not one.

[Steve]

Not a single one of the GFS ensembles shows a track like the Euro. Not one.

The aggregate of the GEFS is almost the same as the EC run except it's farther inland by about 100 miles so it doesn't slink back down the coast rather makes the track inland.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=120

[Bocadude85]

Not a single one of the GFS ensembles shows a track like the Euro. Not one.

No they don’t, but the 12z GFS ensemble mean did shift a good 100 miles southwest