ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Powellrm
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3481 Postby Powellrm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:00 pm

Mods-I don't understand why my post was deleted. I made a comment noting the SW shift in the recent models and waiting to see the afternoon updates that may verify a continued SW...because. Well. That's a big thing to take note of, especially as GFS has corrected.

How is that worth deleting? I'm not upset, I'm just trying to understand. I read over the rules on the previous page.
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Ken711
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3482 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:00 pm

tolakram wrote:[im g]https://i.imgur.com/BJfvwSy.png[/img]


North of the 0z run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3483 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:02 pm

And there is the slight bend back wnw on the 12z euro. looks like the same general area as 00z. unless the west turn happens sooner.

starts to slow down between 36 and 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3484 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3485 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:05 pm

Crawling at 60hrs sill a good deal offshore..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3486 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:06 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:And there is the slight bend back wnw on the 12z euro. looks like the same general area as 00z. unless the west turn happens sooner.

starts to slow down between 36 and 48 hours.


It looks like less ridging I'm thinking it will be east and north of 0z.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3487 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:08 pm

Landfalled north and east of 0z just to the west of Wilmington.
Last edited by Ken711 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3488 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:08 pm

Ken711 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:And there is the slight bend back wnw on the 12z euro. looks like the same general area as 00z. unless the west turn happens sooner.

starts to slow down between 36 and 48 hours.


It looks like less ridging I'm thinking it will be east and north of 0z.


possible. though should still turn left shortly.. either inland or not. either ways same general idea..


and as I write.. turns west just offshore. cwarling
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3489 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:08 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3490 Postby dspguy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:09 pm

Looks like the latest Euro shifted a touch east and the latest GFS has swung WAY west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3491 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:10 pm

The turn happened slightly sooner with the euro this run..

going to be a very tricky forecast..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3492 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:12 pm

Euro is north and kind of lines up with Ukmet.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3493 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:12 pm

24hrs just offshore wilmington as a strong cat 3.. lovely..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3494 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:14 pm

Vdogg wrote:Euro is north and kind of lines up with Ukmet.


it is literally almost right in the same spot as the 00z. this is the best consensus thus far with all the models. ..



except now the UKMET is the right outlier.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3495 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:18 pm

EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3496 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Vdogg wrote:Euro is north and kind of lines up with Ukmet.


it is literally almost right in the same spot as the 00z. this is the best consensus thus far with all the models. ..



except now the UKMET is the right outlier.


Does the ridging once it landfalls look the same to you?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3497 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:20 pm

chris_fit wrote:EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa


We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3498 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:21 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
chris_fit wrote:EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa


We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.


True - if there is it's JUST on the coast.... but definte change from previous runs. Was not expecting this
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3499 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:22 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
chris_fit wrote:EURO No Landfall through 96 hours and drifting SW offshore!! Whoa


We don't know if there's no landfall, the images are 24 hours apart.


No landfall

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3500 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:22 pm

Landfall (2nd?) Georgia/SC - WOW - This has gotta be a fuke

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