ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

SSTs are an important part of convective formation, but one thing that doesn't get enough attention is the deep-layer temperature difference between the surface and the upper-levels. The latest SHIPS guidance initializes Beryl on top of 25.4C (77.7) waters, which at first blush sounds pretty tepid for a tropical cyclone, so how's it firing convection so well? Look further into the guidance and you'll also find temperatures at the 200 hPa height (about 38 kft or 12 km up) are at a pretty low -54.8C. That means there's an 80.2C temperature difference between the surface and the upper troposphere! In fact that's actually right around what Fabio over in the Eastern Pacific had to work with when it was starting to peak over the EPAC thermal gradient a few days ago over 27.1C waters. You may also remember Hurricane Alex near the Azores back in January two years ago. That had a similar thermal difference to work with.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS now keeps Beryl as a TC through the islands

[cycloneye]

GFS now keeps Beryl as a TC through the islands

[brohavwx]

SSTs are an important part of convective formation, but one thing that doesn't get enough attention is the deep-layer temperature difference between the surface and the upper-levels. The latest SHIPS guidance initializes Beryl on top of 25.4C (77.7) waters, which at first blush sounds pretty tepid for a tropical cyclone, so how's it firing convection so well? Look further into the guidance and you'll also find temperatures at the 200 hPa height (about 38 kft or 12 km up) are at a pretty low -54.8C. That means there's an 80.2C temperature difference between the surface and the upper troposphere! In fact that's actually right around what Fabio over in the Eastern Pacific had to work with when it was starting to peak over the EPAC thermal gradient a few days ago over 27.1C waters. You may also remember Hurricane Alex near the Azores back in January two years ago. That had a similar thermal difference to work with.

Don't forget the troposphere gets deeper (or higher) as you go towards the equator ... about 15 km up. Out thunderstorms get very high around here - Barbados - before they start discharging (and recharge is about 1 minute between lightning for the average thunderstorm cell), while they 'butt off' lower north of the Tropic of Cancer and lower towards the poles.

I keep saying the deep tropics has not been 'recon' enough and much less sample data is taken east and SE of us (Barbados) ... rarely seen a recon plane out by us until its pass 50 or 55W ... but if the system is north of 15N they go out when systems are at 45W or farther. Saw that last year glaringly so. Look at Tomas in 2010. So the forecast models has sparse historical data. Only good thing is that GOES-16 is given more detailed, varied and better data but that is still 'new' so to speak for working into the numeric models, etc.

[brohavwx]

I know it costs money but for research purposes and better deep tropical cyclogenesis research, they should be looking to put a Recon plane in Beryl tomorrow (Friday) morning or even from earlier this afternoon (Thursday). I am sure it would come up with some surprises ... and better understanding too.

[Aric Dunn]

I know it costs money but for research purposes and better deep tropical cyclogenesis research, they should be looking to put a Recon plane in Beryl tomorrow morning or even from earlier this afternoon. I am sure it would come up with some surprises ... and better understanding too.

IF only the US government cared enough about research and data into this. been an on going struggle for a very very long time.

[Aric Dunn]

newest sat image looks like another large burst coming this time on the east side. likely beginning to hit the warmer ssts.

[brohavwx]

newest sat image looks like another large burst coming this time on the east side. likely beginning to hit the warmer ssts.

... and getting back its 'form' too.

[Siker]

GFS has this pretty intact in the Bahamas on its 00z run. CMC sends this as a TD into SW Florida, and also spawns a second TC from the same wave that goes off the East Coast behind 96L lol...

Here's the UKMET, which also now has a TC into the islands, a pretty marked difference from its 12z run which called for dissipation right about now. Safe to say models are trending stronger tonight:

TROPICAL STORM BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 43.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.07.2018 0 10.2N 43.4W 998 45
1200UTC 06.07.2018 12 10.5N 45.2W 992 56
0000UTC 07.07.2018 24 11.5N 46.9W 998 51
1200UTC 07.07.2018 36 12.7N 49.5W 1000 54
0000UTC 08.07.2018 48 13.6N 52.5W 1003 53
1200UTC 08.07.2018 60 14.6N 56.5W 1006 47
0000UTC 09.07.2018 72 15.5N 60.9W 1007 44
1200UTC 09.07.2018 84 16.3N 65.2W 1008 45
0000UTC 10.07.2018 96 17.2N 69.6W 1010 37
1200UTC 10.07.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

[NotSparta]

Interesting tidbit... if Beryl becomes a hurricane before 06:00 UTC on Saturday, it will be the earliest hurricane in the MDR (10-20N, 20-60W) on record.

[EquusStorm]

I'm just absolutely enthralled with how small this thing is. The Marcos and Beryls of the basin are fascinating with their rapid and seemingly challenging to predict intensity fluctuations. So neat to watch these mini-canes.

[Aric Dunn]

So far this is the deepest/ coldest cloud tops the system has produced thus far.

I really wish they would put the mesoscale sector over this again.

[BYG Jacob]

So far this is the deepest/ coldest cloud tops the system has produced thus far.

I really wish they would put the mesoscale sector over this again.

Which satellite are you using?

[cycloneye]

As Siker said,the 00z runs of the models are trending stronger.Here is HMON.

[Aric Dunn]

So far this is the deepest/ coldest cloud tops the system has produced thus far.

I really wish they would put the mesoscale sector over this again.

Which satellite are you using?

All of the sites lol. NASA, COD, RAMMB, Tibits.. etc..

Always playing with various overlays. saving images playing with stuff you can find.

[brohavwx]

I know it costs money but for research purposes and better deep tropical cyclogenesis research, they should be looking to put a Recon plane in Beryl tomorrow morning or even from earlier this afternoon. I am sure it would come up with some surprises ... and better understanding too.

IF only the US government cared enough about research and data into this. been an on going struggle for a very very long time.

NOTE: (see as I said once its pass 50W)

NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 14.0N 51.0W FOR 07/1800Z.

[chaser1]

newest sat image looks like another large burst coming this time on the east side. likely beginning to hit the warmer ssts.

... and getting back its 'form' too.

Pretty impressive is all I've got to say. Convective banding seemingly on the increase and zero dry air intrusion suggest on Water Vapor. Fascinating to think we could soon have a micro-sized hurricane out there while 72 hours ago new professional season predictions seemed to plummet, dry air from Mars seemingly invaded the Atlantic, and every indication was that pressures were too high, SST's too cold, and El Nino practically pulling up in the driveway and ready for dinner. Crazier yet is that Beryl wasn't just some subtropical mess born closer to the North Pole then some Daytona Pole position. It's in the friggin' MDR.... in July. I'd be cautious to suggest what Beryl's development might imply for the weeks and months to come. I'd say this though, as much as most of us felt pretty sure how inhospitable most of the Atlantic basin presently was.... present indications imply that conditions ARE favorable right now - right there. Just when we begin to think we've got it all figured out, mother nature seems to have a way of proving us wrong

[brohavwx]

I'm just absolutely enthralled with how small this thing is. The Marcos and Beryls of the basin are fascinating with their rapid and seemingly challenging to predict intensity fluctuations. So neat to watch these mini-canes.

They can still give us hell out here in the Atlantic - Eastern Caribbean - we're on the front line, most of the time.

[brohavwx]

newest sat image looks like another large burst coming this time on the east side. likely beginning to hit the warmer ssts.

... and getting back its 'form' too.

Pretty impressive is all I've got to say. Convective banding seemingly on the increase and zero dry air intrusion suggest on Water Vapor. Fascinating to think we could soon have a micro-sized hurricane out there while 72 hours ago new professional season predictions seemed to plummet, dry air from Mars seemingly invaded the Atlantic, and every indication was that pressures were too high, SST's too cold, and El Nino practically pulling up in the driveway and ready for dinner. Crazier yet is that Beryl wasn't just some subtropical mess born closer to the North Pole then some Daytona Pole position. It's in the friggin' MDR.... in July. I'd be cautious to suggest what Beryl's development might imply for the weeks and months to come. I'd say this though, as much as most of us felt pretty sure how inhospitable most of the Atlantic basin presently was.... present indications imply that conditions ARE favorable right now - right there. Just when we begin to think we've got it all figured out, mother nature seems to have a way of proving us wrong

I was telling my guys that all along, as I've been watching and monitoring stuff out this way for decades but the young guys come here, see what you guys put up about same - pressures were too high, SST's too cold, and El Nino - and I told them hang on, just wait and watch. And there you go ... now singing new tunes.

[Aric Dunn]

not completely off topic. but just for fun.. I was flying out of Brownsville last week in the middle of a large SAL plume that overspread the SE Texas. here is what SAL looks like flying through it.

crazy how Beryl has been able to keep it out.