ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[PSUHiker31]

Yeah this is definitely moving more west now. Looks like it's headed towards Sandestin

[wxman57]

Getting some of the heaviest rain yet this morning and some gusts into the 20's here in Miramar Bch. just south of the Choctawhatchee Bay by about 400yds as a bird flies.

Keep us posted as to what you see. I think you may see some 20-30 mph 1-min winds. Could see a gust in mid to upper 30s. Just enough to ruin the weekend/holiday.

[wxman57]

Hmmm how this is not fully tropical IDK ( clearly is)> I suppose it really does not matter at this point.

If it was a subtropical storm, the winds would be east of the center. Looking at the most recent map, there are tropical storm force winds at all quadrants.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Any TS wind ARE east of the center (NE-SE). However, the NHC is being cautious in keeping the TS winds SW and NW of the center - just in case some develop there. They don't like to indicate weakening as a storm is making landfall. However, I do think it qualified as a TS prior to the dry air entrainment.

[AdamFirst]

I find this image striking, comparing the feeder band coming off of Central Cuba and the actual center of the storm south of the Panhandle.

[DestinHurricane]

Water rising a bit at bagetowne marina in sandestin. Heres the live cam http://www.sandestin.com/sandestin-webcams

[ObsessedMiami]

Miami continues to have some kind of force field. Rain ventures close off shore but dies out right before land.

[PSUHiker31]

I find this image striking, comparing the feeder band coming off of Central Cuba and the actual center of the storm south of the Panhandle.

I've been admiring how crappy it's looked this morning like that. Stupid Texas ruining our fun...

[floridasun78]

Miami continues to have some kind of force field. Rain ventures close off shore but dies out right before land.

i see that all storms been to east over Bahamas bad over their

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the amount of dry air ingested into Alberto's overall circulation really choked this cyclone. It also saved the Florida peninsula from massive potential rainfall for the time being.

Well, at least some of my outdoor activity plans have been salvaged thanks to that dry air intrusion!

[blp]

Model forecast error after yesterday's model runs and last night's 00z input, really shows how well the 3 day UKMET accuracy was (even better then the NHC track):

[]https://i.imgur.com/nlNzRK2.png[/img]

[]https://i.imgur.com/hjyPyKO.png[/img]

UKmet has been really enhancing its reputation past couple of years as a reliable model. This was not an easy forecast as evidence by the big divergence in the GFS and Euro.

It also did well with developed systems like Irma and Mathew. It's good we have another model of this caliber in the mix.

How well did it do intensity wise?

[floridasun78]

watching big area storms over cuba see if going move toward keys

[psyclone]

Our system looks pretty bad today. So much for the warmer waters helping out. It's been a fascinating thing to watch but just too soon for anything legit strength-wise. As is often the case with these early season storms the most extreme weather is often moated off by dry air and is well removed from the core of the system. In this case it's been the persistent plume of deep moisture aiming initially at western cuba and then central cuba and the Bahamas. Peninsular florida really threaded the needle magnificently on this one ...at least so far..

[Aric Dunn]

well it is definitely the best it has ever looked right now lol

[StormPyrate]

Radar looks like it is hauling west, is that the stall they showed on models??

[ronjon]

Our system looks pretty bad today. So much for the warmer waters helping out. It's been a fascinating thing to watch but just too soon for anything legit strength-wise. As is often the case with these early season storms the most extreme weather is often moated off by dry air and is well removed from the core of the system. In this case it's been the persistent plume of deep moisture aiming initially at western cuba and then central cuba and the Bahamas. Peninsular florida really threaded the needle magnificently on this one ...at least so far..

So far...I believe that plume of moisture associated with the tail end trough of Alberto headed for the peninsula the next two days. I wouldn't be surprised if the next two day rainfall totals exceeds that of the storm.

[blp]

Our system looks pretty bad today. So much for the warmer waters helping out. It's been a fascinating thing to watch but just too soon for anything legit strength-wise. As is often the case with these early season storms the most extreme weather is often moated off by dry air and is well removed from the core of the system. In this case it's been the persistent plume of deep moisture aiming initially at western cuba and then central cuba and the Bahamas. Peninsular florida really threaded the needle magnificently on this one ...at least so far..

So far...I believe that plume of moisture associated with the tail end trough of Alberto headed for the peninsula the next two days. I wouldn't be surprised if the next two day rainfall totals exceeds that of the storm.

Agreed, especially if Alberto continues to move a little more west it's going to drag the plume right over the state.

[northjaxpro]

Agree. I especially think so in South Florida. The large plume of mosture will move north as the week progresses. Lots of rain coming.

[PSUHiker31]

Outer bands seem to weaken a bit on the west side. Barely making it to Santa Rosa County

[Aric Dunn]

You dont get too much more tropical than this lol.. long curved feeder band convection around the center, temp and dew point profiles increase as you head to the center..... blah blah.. anyway..

[psyclone]

That is what I wonder...as the storm moves away is that firehose going to pivot westward over us. I hope not as it's been amazingly persistent and looks crazy heavy. But as we know...with some of these early systems the heavy weather comes well before or after the actual system. In the case of Debby in my area the extreme rain event happened before the system was a tropical storm. once the warnings were out the weather improved! so the old rule of the most extreme weather is often well removed from the center in weak systems is clearly on display here.