WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Looks like we have landfall. Obs from Rota stopped updating 3 hours ago unfortunately.
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 100420 CCA
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...MANGKHUT STEADILY MOVING TOWARD ROTA...
.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS WITHIN GUAM AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM, ROTA, TINIAN, AND
SAIPAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 146.6E. THIS WAS ABOUT 140 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST AT 21 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM OR NEAR-TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT
ALL LOCATIONS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING SHELTERS AND EVACUATIONS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ002-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
&&
...WINDS...
EXPECT DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND DECREASE TO 45
TO 55 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD EXCEED 40 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT.
IN ADDITION THERE COULD BE A STORM SURGE AS HIGH AS 6 FEET.
TOGETHER THESE COULD PRODUCE INUNDATION OF AS MUCH AS 10 FEET OR
MORE. SEAS WILL BE LOWER FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...BUT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE 20 FEET OR MORE. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON
WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES ROTA.
$$
GUZ001-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
&&
...WINDS...
EXPECT DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 75 MPH BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY MORNING WILL
DECREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 25 FEET AS THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT
PASSES NEAR ROTA. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES GUAM.
...OTHER INFORMATION...
FOURTEEN (14) SCHOOLS HAVE BEEN OPENED TO SERVE AS SHELTERS ACROSS
GUAM. RESIDENTS WHO BELIEVE THAT THEIR HOME IS NOT SAFE AGAINST
HEAVY WINDS AND RAINS OR LIVE IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MOVE TO A DESIGNATED STORM SHELTER.
A COMPLETE LISTING OF SHELTERS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE GUAM
OFFICES OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND CIVIL DEFENSE.
$$
GUZ003-004-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
CORRECTED TYPO
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
...WINDS... EXPECT DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 55 TO 75 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD EXCEED 40 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT. IN
ADDITION THERE COULD BE A STORM SURGE AS HIGH AS 4 FEET. TOGETHER
THESE COULD PRODUCE INUNDATION OF AS MUCH AS 10 FEET. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE 20 FEET OR
MORE. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
$$
...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER, THE THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
WTPQ81 PGUM 100420 CCA
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...MANGKHUT STEADILY MOVING TOWARD ROTA...
.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS WITHIN GUAM AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM, ROTA, TINIAN, AND
SAIPAN.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4N...LONGITUDE 146.6E. THIS WAS ABOUT 140 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST AT 21 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM OR NEAR-TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT
ALL LOCATIONS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING SHELTERS AND EVACUATIONS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
GUZ002-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
&&
...WINDS...
EXPECT DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND DECREASE TO 45
TO 55 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD EXCEED 40 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT.
IN ADDITION THERE COULD BE A STORM SURGE AS HIGH AS 6 FEET.
TOGETHER THESE COULD PRODUCE INUNDATION OF AS MUCH AS 10 FEET OR
MORE. SEAS WILL BE LOWER FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...BUT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE 20 FEET OR MORE. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON
WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES ROTA.
$$
GUZ001-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
&&
...WINDS...
EXPECT DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 75 MPH BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY MORNING WILL
DECREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 15 TO 25 FEET AS THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT
PASSES NEAR ROTA. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES GUAM.
...OTHER INFORMATION...
FOURTEEN (14) SCHOOLS HAVE BEEN OPENED TO SERVE AS SHELTERS ACROSS
GUAM. RESIDENTS WHO BELIEVE THAT THEIR HOME IS NOT SAFE AGAINST
HEAVY WINDS AND RAINS OR LIVE IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MOVE TO A DESIGNATED STORM SHELTER.
A COMPLETE LISTING OF SHELTERS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE GUAM
OFFICES OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND CIVIL DEFENSE.
$$
GUZ003-004-101200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.4026.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
208 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2018
CORRECTED TYPO
...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH.
...WINDS... EXPECT DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 55 TO 75 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 85 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD EXCEED 40 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF MANGKHUT. IN
ADDITION THERE COULD BE A STORM SURGE AS HIGH AS 4 FEET. TOGETHER
THESE COULD PRODUCE INUNDATION OF AS MUCH AS 10 FEET. SEAS WILL BE
LOWER FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE 20 FEET OR
MORE. DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TYPHOON
MANGKHUT PASSES TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
$$
...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...
AS TYPHOON MANGKHUT (26W) MOVES CLOSER, THE THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
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euro6208
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1039055401788923906
Extremely intense video out of Rota. They got hit hard.
JTWC gave this 90 knots before landfall. That looks like a 3. Again sucks the obs from Rota stopped updating before it plow through.
Extremely intense video out of Rota. They got hit hard.
JTWC gave this 90 knots before landfall. That looks like a 3. Again sucks the obs from Rota stopped updating before it plow through.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Pressure is still slowly dropping here in central Guam.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... N1#history
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... N1#history
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3715
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Mangkhut finally got a decent eye.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Lost power here. Winds gusting to 70 mph at Andersen and the airport. Very intense band stationed over us.
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Latest runs from ECMWF and GFS both bring a very intense typhoon directly over Hong Kong.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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1900hurricane
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Really going to town now.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
The current SSMIS estimate is 105 kt. That might be what I use for 00Z. This is probably about to go up in a big way though.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
JTWC is up to 5.5, although their DT was 6.0.
TPPN11 PGTW 101213
A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 14.05N
D. 144.16E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET/PT ARE 5.5.
DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ZOUFALY
A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 14.05N
D. 144.16E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET/PT ARE 5.5.
DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ZOUFALY
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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mrbagyo
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- Posts: 3715
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
I'm thinking of hunting this one in Sta. Ana, Cagayan but if Mangkhut chooses Batanes (pain in the arse logistically) - nevermind.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
Up to 85 knots from JMA and 100 knots from JTWC, corresponding to a T5.5 intensity.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
06z GFS adjusted the track westward toward EC solution and brings 918mb center over HK
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Re: WPAC: MANGKHUT - Typhoon
There we go. might start to bomb out like Florence is right now, but Mangkhut's transformation will be much more dramatic.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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