ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[NotSparta]

First it was going east of forecast, and now it's heading more west of forecast.

Starting the year off with large track errors

[tailgater]

Shear dropping, hope dry air can keep him from bombing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

[DestinHurricane]

Model consensus has shifted a tad to the west at 18Z, I would expect NHC track to follow at 5PM EST advisory.

can you share the link to them?

12Zhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/01L_tracks_12z.png

18Z https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

[Sciencerocks]

[Frank P]

well if you extrapolate that SFWMD radar loop that shows it well west of the projected path sure looks like a Pensacola hit... provided it does not take a hard right turn in the near future...

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM slightly slower.. and again deepening CAT 3 up to landfall..

[marionstorm]

It appears weather.us already has the UKMET, called global Britain? Anyway, here's an animated GIF of the 12Z run.

https://i.imgur.com/pdjbvhi.gif

Wow UKMET has really done well with this storm. It is currently moving west as predicted.

[NotSparta]

[img]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img923/56/G1G83t.gif[img]

Some outflow headed SW from the convection. Shear must be coming down

[SouthDadeFish]

Structure looks much improved this afternoon, in my opinion. It's difficult to be certain without aircraft observations, but it appears the vortex tilt has decreased over the past few hours. If dry air can get mixed out over the next few hours, Alberto has a brief window for intensification prior to landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

sat and radar starting to show some moisture trickling into the center. might see some convection build around center soon

[Frank P]

last few loops on satellite presentation sure looked WNW to me... either that or it's possibly slowing down ...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf
Coast west of Navarre, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday.
Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the
northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of
Alberto. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Alberto reaches the
northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall,
and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night
or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry
mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around
the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep
convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.
Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial
wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this
advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this evening.

The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is
whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the
center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to
regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm
SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some
convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but
that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for
significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity
is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Monday.

Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward
to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on
Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low.
After that time, the system should continue moving northward between
the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that
approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models
are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to
3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The
new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track
during the first 24 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Aric Dunn]

THe other issue is ssts. it is right on the edge of the 26 c .. so the farther west it goes the better chance it has.

[tropicwatch]

Circulation looks a lot more impressive this afternoon then it did this morning.

[BobHarlem]

Still a lot of dry air coming in on water vapor sat wrapping in from the sw.

[flamingosun]

Over the last hour or so, we have had some light rain and wind ( ~15mph) from time to time here on the east coast near Cape Canaveral.

[Ivanhater]

Westward shift in track..still moving more west

[Ed_2001]

Does anyone know when will be the next reconnaissance flight?

[Aric Dunn]

Westward shift in track..still moving more west

yeah it will be well west of the next forecast point and the cone again soon.

[tropicwatch]

Does anyone know when will be the next reconnaissance flight?

On its way now out of Houston.