WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the system is still pretty south weighted, but it does appear that the southern eyewall is sharpening up.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1038961024769163264




*EDIT: Is there some way to remove the redundant text at the bottom?

[1900hurricane]

Visible presentation is also improving.

[Guamphoon]

What causes typhoons like this one to move so much faster than others? I was reading the JTWC products, where they commented that the models were not predicting such fast mover. I remember when I first heard about this storm, CPA was supposed the be late Tuesday afternoon, then moved to Mid day Tuesday, and now is early tonight.

[mrbagyo]

26W MANGKHUT 180910 0000 14.5N 147.4E WPAC 80 980

[mrbagyo]

PGUA 100216Z AUTO 30020G28KT 1 5/8SM +RA BR BKN005 25/24 A2966 RMK AO2 VIS 1 5/8V5 VIS 1 1/8 RWY06L VIS 7/8 RWY24R CIG 005V007 SLP034 $

20 knots gusting to 28 knots
1003.4 mb

[Highteeld]

Trying to make progress, but it is dragging its feet a bit at the moment.

[euro6208]

Lamest typhoon ever. The hype of this becoming another Pongsona is a joke.

Showers and winds have been off and on. Nothing too bad.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING AND A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A DEFINED EYE IN THE ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN, ROTA AND GUAM INDICATE
INCREASING WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED GALE-FORCE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
TY MANGKHUT'S OUTER BANDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0
(90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING 26W GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD (260-280
RADIAL). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD
OF 39NM AT TAU 12 NEAR GUAM. DUE TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (APPROXIMATELY
370-NM DIAMETER) AND EXPANSIVE SPIRAL BANDING, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT OVER A LARGE AREA. TY 26W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 TO AN INTENSITY RANGING FROM 90
TO 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL THERE IS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE TRACK CLOSER TO GUAM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH A 210NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO PEAK AT SUPER TYPHOON
STRENGTH AT TAU 96 WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH LUZON NEAR TAU 120. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HIGH BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC coming in at 5.5. Could they possibly go that high?

TPPN11 PGTW 100330

A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 10/0300Z

C. 14.40N

D. 146.34E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2345Z 14.48N 147.45E MMHS


VEERKAMP

[Highteeld]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2018 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:12 N Lon : 146:33:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 976.1mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.1 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

[euro6208]

Eye really tightening up now.

[Highteeld]

Picking up winds around 100 kts on the N side of the eyewall around 12K feet

[Highteeld]

Seeing some gusts up to 129 kts now that the storm is closer to radar (9,000 feet) on the North side of the eyewall

[euro6208]

Nearing Rota.

[euro6208]

Wow Saipan sure is getting hammered.



http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PGSN.html

[euro6208]

Now seeing winds of 82 mph in Saipan.

Pressure in Rota dropping like a rock.

[Highteeld]

PGRO would seem to be the METAR
https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... =0&hours=0

[euro6208]

https://www.earthcam.com/world/northernmarianaislands/saipan/?cam=saipan

Saipan cam.

[euro6208]

Clearly the worst is here. Heavy rains and gusty winds...

[euro6208]