ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

While I consider watches warranted, I doubt it, going on the language from the 2pm TWO.

[psyclone]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

IF they opted for any alerts for south Florida they'd go straight to warnings since the system will be there tomorrow. Frankly I'd be surprised if they did that but it's certainly possible. I'm expecting watches for the north central gulf coast region...probably MS and portions of LA

[Dean4Storms]

Been away for a few hours, and just took a look at the latest satellite loops. Still looks like an open wave to me and it lost a lot of convection around the MLC.

Agree, wonder with the drop of shear over it if it isn’t struggling with divergence aloft.

[chaser1]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

I'd frankly be surprised if there weren't. I mean, no Armageddon type stuff lol but that doesn't preclude proper caution for boaters, risk of minor flooding at periods of high tide, and possible revision of rainfall rate/minor nuisance flooding for roadways. Probably just an enhanced version of the Florida Rainfall Blues with a nicely enhanced pressure gradient, and maybe an enhanced brief tornado risk? More importantly though, it opens a doorway for less likely but the potential increase in tropical system organization and any heightened warnings that might need be broadcast.

[cycloneye]

First Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will be up at 5 PM EDT.

Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 02, 2018:

Location: 22.4°N 76.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 45 mph peak. It'll be moving pretty fast through the GOMEX, fortunately, which will limit the amount of time the circulation can really get going.

[psyclone]

BTW we just had a very gusty line of thunderstorms blow through the Bay area...the kind with fast forward motion and strong winds you usually don't get in the doldrums of Summer in Florida..unless there's tropical mischief close by.

[PSUHiker31]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

I'd frankly be surprised if there weren't. I mean, no Armageddon type stuff lol but that doesn't preclude proper caution for boaters, risk of minor flooding at periods of high tide, and possible revision of rainfall rate/minor nuisance flooding for roadways. Probably just an enhanced version of the Florida Rainfall Blues with a nicely enhanced pressure gradient, and maybe an enhanced brief tornado risk? More importantly though, it opens a doorway for less likely but the potential increase in tropical system organization and any heightened warnings that might need be broadcast.

Depending on how quickly this organizes, I absolutely do think there can be a tornado risk on the peninsula once 07L enters the gulf.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, it isn’t nearly as impressive as earlier. Convection died off, but HRRR shows a blowup coming soon. We will see how correct it is soon.

[AtlanticWind]

Don't think we will see warnings for South florida based on the 2 pm TWO ,I could be wrong though

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, it isn’t nearly as impressive as earlier. Convection died off, but HRRR shows a blowup coming soon. We will see how correct it is soon.

We all know this is always part of the process convection always weakens during organization phases.

[JarrodB]

It looks like the afternoon storms of Cuba is helping keep convection down for now. I expect it to have a good flare up overnight.

[tolakram]

Pretty good look at the lower levels as convection wanes. No sign of any LLC or even any low level flow bending toward the convection yet.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1309&y=1150.5&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]

COD: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pretty good look at the lower levels as convection wanes. No sign of any LLC or even any low level flow bending toward the convection yet.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1309&y=1150.5&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Looks like it might be bending towards the convection blowing up on the SE side.

[chaser1]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

I'd frankly be surprised if there weren't. I mean, no Armageddon type stuff lol but that doesn't preclude proper caution for boaters, risk of minor flooding at periods of high tide, and possible revision of rainfall rate/minor nuisance flooding for roadways. Probably just an enhanced version of the Florida Rainfall Blues with a nicely enhanced pressure gradient, and maybe an enhanced brief tornado risk? More importantly though, it opens a doorway for less likely but the potential increase in tropical system organization and any heightened warnings that might need be broadcast.

Depending on how quickly this organizes, I absolutely do think there can be a tornado risk on the peninsula once 07L enters the gulf.

Hard as I try though, still can't make out any evidence of west wind on sat. That said, that's some pretty impressive convective bursting just to the Southeast of where I'd guess a MLC to be. Fast tropical cyclone "spin-up's" are just not a common occurrence but if I were to look toward the possibility of such an occurrence, it would be in a convective small scale system during September with hot SST's and great upper level difluence. Aric, jlauderdale, Steve, Larry, anyone?? I've got one extra seat in my 'ol tandem kayak in search of that west wind and 1007 mb reading!

[AxaltaRacing24]

in developing systems like this one, doesn’t the convection need to collapse and then reform to help the LLC form in the first place?

[PSUHiker31]

I'd frankly be surprised if there weren't. I mean, no Armageddon type stuff lol but that doesn't preclude proper caution for boaters, risk of minor flooding at periods of high tide, and possible revision of rainfall rate/minor nuisance flooding for roadways. Probably just an enhanced version of the Florida Rainfall Blues with a nicely enhanced pressure gradient, and maybe an enhanced brief tornado risk? More importantly though, it opens a doorway for less likely but the potential increase in tropical system organization and any heightened warnings that might need be broadcast.

Depending on how quickly this organizes, I absolutely do think there can be a tornado risk on the peninsula once 07L enters the gulf.

Hard as I try though, still can't make out any evidence of west wind on sat. That said, that's some pretty impressive convective bursting just to the Southeast of where I'd guess a MLC to be. Fast tropical cyclone "spin-up's" are just not a common occurrence but if I were to look toward the possibility of such an occurrence, it would be in a convective small scale system during September with hot SST's and great upper level difluence. Aric, jlauderdale, Steve, Larry, anyone?? I've got one extra seat in my 'ol tandem kayak in search of that west wind and 1007 mb reading!

The diurnal maximum overnight should be helpful

[nativefloridian]

Message from NHC site: NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located between the north-central coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[jlauderdal]

As i stated this morning, sat presentation looked decent but need the llc and nobody has provided any evidence, its a wave until further notice

I'd frankly be surprised if there weren't. I mean, no Armageddon type stuff lol but that doesn't preclude proper caution for boaters, risk of minor flooding at periods of high tide, and possible revision of rainfall rate/minor nuisance flooding for roadways. Probably just an enhanced version of the Florida Rainfall Blues with a nicely enhanced pressure gradient, and maybe an enhanced brief tornado risk? More importantly though, it opens a doorway for less likely but the potential increase in tropical system organization and any heightened warnings that might need be broadcast.

Depending on how quickly this organizes, I absolutely do think there can be a tornado risk on the peninsula once 07L enters the gulf.

Hard as I try though, still can't make out any evidence of west wind on sat. That said, that's some pretty impressive convective bursting just to the Southeast of where I'd guess a MLC to be. Fast tropical cyclone "spin-up's" are just not a common occurrence but if I were to look toward the possibility of such an occurrence, it would be in a convective small scale system during September with hot SST's and great upper level difluence. Aric, jlauderdale, Steve, Larry, anyone?? I've got one extra seat in my 'ol tandem kayak in search of that west wind and 1007 mb reading!

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