CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

There's no way Lane still is a hurricane, why is the CPHC so slow to upgrade or downgrade the systems?

https://i.imgur.com/5EWe9aD.gif

They are relying on subjective Dvorak estimates, but in this case such estimates perform very badly. Agencies are usually slow to switch from the embedded center pattern to the shear pattern, and unwilling to break constraints despite significant weakening.

Even though wind speed may lag behind satellite presentation by a bit, this is very likely a tropical storm now.

[NDG]

BTW, the HWRF did not do well with Lane's decoupling today.

[tolakram]

BTW, the HWRF did not do well with Lane's decoupling today.

Nothing did well. Euro decoupled too early, GFS and HWRF too late. Blend wins again. This may yet follow the CPHC track, which would be fantastic IMO.

[NDG]

BTW, the HWRF did not do well with Lane's decoupling today.

Nothing did well. Euro decoupled too early, GFS and HWRF too late. Blend wins again. This may yet follow the CPHC track, which would be fantastic IMO.

That's usually the best way to go, with the blend between the GFS and Euro when they are so part away form each other.
I'm very disappointed on how badly (compared to other years) the Euro has been performing since at least the last couple of years.

[Yellow Evan]

This is weakening at a rate you'd expect an inland storm too at this point. Overall this got blasted a bit earlier than I thought it would and just fell apart from there. Core is long gore after being around for over a week. Interesting end for an impressive storm to track for what felt like for a while would end up as a catastrophic hurricane strike. This probably dies before it turns west at this rate.

[tolakram]

There's so many outflow boundaries I can't make out an LLC.

[Brent]

This is the worst looking hurricane ive ever seen

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Special Advisory Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST SOUTH OF HAWAII BUT
FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN A THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 157.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

[tolakram]

SLIDER's edge of the world view is pretty unique.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=20595&y=7342&z=4&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=2&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[wxman57]

CPHC is following the MLC, not the LLC. Dvorak estimate is assuming the low-level center is properly located, which it isn't. Thus, the 75kt wind in their intermediate advisory. I didn't expect them to downgrade it, as there is still a heavy rain threat.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1033146104089595905

[SconnieCane]

Wow, stunning how fast Lane capitulated to the shear after fighting it far longer than I expected. I guess the "Hawaiian Shear Shield" really is a thing and saves their bacon even in hyperactive Pacific seasons like 2015. Out of curiosity, for the lone recorded exception, where was this shear when Iniki made its hook north?

[TheStormExpert]

Forget Bertha (2014) and all the other sloppy hurricanes the Atlantic produced. Lane earns the reward for most ugliest hurricane ever! (If that’s what you want to still call it )

Hawaii sure dodged a bullet once again with Lane in terms of seeing another Iniki repeat. Flooding will surely be the story with Lane, not sure if this will be memorable enough to warrant retirement, but I’d lean more towards yes than no.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow, stunning how fast Lane capitulated to the shear after fighting it far longer than I expected. I guess the "Hawaiian Shear Shield" really is a thing and saves their bacon even in hyperactive Pacific seasons like 2015. Out of curiosity, for the lone recorded exception, where was this shear when Iniki made its hook north?

The so-called “Hawaiian Shear Shield” seems to come and go throughout the season. If I remember correctly just a month or two ago it wasn’t present so I assume the same happened when Iniki striked.

[Ntxw]

Wow, stunning how fast Lane capitulated to the shear after fighting it far longer than I expected. I guess the "Hawaiian Shear Shield" really is a thing and saves their bacon even in hyperactive Pacific seasons like 2015. Out of curiosity, for the lone recorded exception, where was this shear when Iniki made its hook north?

The so-called “Hawaiian Shear Shield” seems to come and go throughout the season. If I remember correctly just a month or two ago it wasn’t present so I assume the same happened when Iniki striked.

Also Lane slowed down when he approached the Islands. If this were moving fast to the northeast it would've been a different story most likely. Similar to an Iniki/Wilma had it zipped with a trough vs steering breakdown.

[TheStormExpert]

This is weakening at a rate you'd expect an inland storm too at this point. Overall this got blasted a bit earlier than I thought it would and just fell apart from there. Core is long gore after being around for over a week. Interesting end for an impressive storm to track for what felt like for a while would end up as a catastrophic hurricane strike. This probably dies before it turns west at this rate.

This will likely be a depression by morning at this rate.

[gatorcane]

The Hawaiian TUTT saved Hawaii again. Now we see why it is so hard to get a landfalling cane in Hawaii.

[galaxy401]

Really amazing to see Lane get completely ripped apart by that Hawaiian shield. Regarding Iniki, my theory is that it struck the westernmost island so it was too far away from the Big Island (where the shield seems to be at) to feel the effects. It's faster speed probably helped too.

[supercane4867]

Wow, stunning how fast Lane capitulated to the shear after fighting it far longer than I expected. I guess the "Hawaiian Shear Shield" really is a thing and saves their bacon even in hyperactive Pacific seasons like 2015. Out of curiosity, for the lone recorded exception, where was this shear when Iniki made its hook north?

Iniki was carried by an unseasonably strong cold front and rapidly accelerating northward at the time. It started to weaken and became extratropical as soon as it passed Kauai. Iniki is pretty much a once in a century event that need to have perfect timing for it to happen. Otherwise a Iwa redux is more likely for another Hawaiian hurricane strike.

[tolakram]

So my take, for what it's worth (not much) is that the big island blocked a lot of inflow. I didn't see a decoupling so much as a dead stop. We've seen EPAC storms sheared to pieces and you can visibly follow the MLC as it races off in the direction of the shear.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-158&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

In this case it looks interrupted, and you can see new convection firing on the north side of the LLC.