ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Although Leslie could probably do it alone eventually seeing as she's not going anywhere fast and may actually restrengthen a bit, soon-to-be Michael will likely be the shot in the arm to get ATL ACE over 100 if it does indeed become a solid hurricane.

Site is finally back to normal speed for me.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Shear map looks...very hostile. Not sure why SHIPS has shear so low.

[CyclonicFury]

Now TS Michael

[DestinHurricane]

With all the model shifts east is Destin landfall off the table?

[KUEFC]

With all the model shifts east is Destin landfall off the table?

They haven’t shifted that far to the east have they?

[DestinHurricane]

With all the model shifts east is Destin landfall off the table?

They haven’t shifted that far to the east have they?

Yes most have shifted to Panama City and Mexico beach which are about 40 miles east of Destin

[psyclone]

With all the model shifts east is Destin landfall off the table?

They haven’t shifted that far to the east have they?

Yes most have shifted to Panama City and Mexico beach which are about 40 miles east of Destin

I think you're still in the hunt at this juncture. one thing worth noting for those residing near the west side of guidance is this stands a good chance of being a classic "half a storm" with very little weather residing west of the center (think breezy offshore wind with passing showers) so you won't need to be too far west of the center for negligible impacts but it's way too soon to know where that will be. the current track really targets the panama city/ appalachicola region and resides just far enough west to keep signifcant qpf west of the florida peninsula.

[KWT]

Not surprised they upgraded l, odds of recon finding at least 35kts are very high at the moment. Let's see what recon finds soon...

[Aric Dunn]

THe NHC has to wait for some run to run consistency. if the entire suit comes back with the same intensity or stronger of course then the 5pm will likely have some stronger words especially since the time frame for landfall is so short.

[wxman57]

Shear map looks...very hostile. Not sure why SHIPS has shear so low.

What shear map? Current shear or shear predicted for Tue-Wed?

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like we may be seeing the center relocate further east as the current one near the Yucatan is starting to get exposed:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Nimbus]

Starting to see upper level cloud tops fanning off on the west side. Looks like shear has decreased a lot

That is what worries me, the shear north of the system is currently high but Michael will be pumping a ridge as the forecast trough retreats (or doesn't). There were two low level centers earlier so it will be interesting to see if recon finds a dominant low level center now.

[GCANE]

That jet over the Yucatan, flowing SW to NE, is really getting hammered.
Another round of afternoon popups and Micheal's outflow should pretty much take it out tonight.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Shear map looks...very hostile. Not sure why SHIPS has shear so low.

What shear map? Current shear or shear predicted for Tue-Wed?

CIMSS current

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to me like we may be seeing the center relocate further east as the current one near the Yucatan is starting to get exposed:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

there are two vorts rotating around still from the shear it happens.

sorry for the crudeness hate drawing with a mouse.

[GCANE]

Recon just passed Cancun.
Should be dropping down shortly.

[PSUHiker31]

Based on available model evidence, the shear should decrease significantly and not be a threat to Michael. Once again too much focus on shear analysis maps and not enough on what models are projecting the shear to do.

[Ken711]

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
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Hard to see much stopping Tropical Storm Michael ... 30°C SST along track and the adjusted wind shear is probably an advantage in 2-days.

Maximum intensity likely depends on ability of vortex to organize in next 24-hours & establish a functional inner-core.

[Aric Dunn]

The eastern circ has all the energy now with the convection and lower shear. the models all show this curved path due to the rotational effect of having two vorts. but as the western vorts loses the battle shortly it will leave the eastern vort to rapidly spin up under lighter shear to the east.

will be interesting to watch with recon out there. should see a fun path.

[GCANE]

Besides the projected shear in the GOM, the other feature to watch is the ULL at 25N 70W.
Good position for vacuuming an outlfow channel.