CPAC: NORMAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this disturbance over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[wx98]

This thing looks to be slowly organizing

[Ntxw]

This one to me is more likely to pull a John/Fabio given the sprawling size and slow organization at least while it is east of 120W. If it takes a bend southwest like the Euro past that point then it's more likely to take off than the GFS' higher latitude path

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2018082700, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1068W, 25, 1008, LO

GFS is weaker at 18z run while HWRF is very bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 63 71 80 88 92 92 90
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 63 71 80 88 92 92 90
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 41 49 58 66 74 76 75 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 2 1 5 1 2 4 1 8 9 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 32 50 47 25 225 4 45 267 149 353 68 60 52
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 160 159 160 158 156 150 144 142 138 136
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 74 73 70 69 64 65 63 63 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 15 18 22 24 25 26
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 3 4 0 -2 6 18 26 30 37 41 38
200 MB DIV 48 53 49 42 48 27 23 22 20 32 22 -1 -23
700-850 TADV -1 -5 -9 -8 -7 -14 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 1 1
LAND (KM) 725 730 730 745 774 808 826 931 1052 1222 1390 1536 1672
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.8 108.8 109.9 110.8 113.0 115.2 117.4 119.8 122.0 124.1 125.8 127.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 40 42 34 28 31 49 19 13 15 13 7 6 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 38. 46. 55. 63. 67. 67. 65.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 106.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 7.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 2.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.4% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.8% 41.2% 31.7% 18.5% 7.7% 44.6% 52.4% 49.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 2.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 26.9% 20.4% 6.4% 2.7% 22.9% 28.2% 17.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 25.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 6.0% 67.0% 77.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS expects Norman to do a Lane, passing south of the islands and turning west afterwards. However, Norman strengthens following the turn and could cross the antimeridian (180°E) but this is in the long-range already. Heaps of ACE.

[cycloneye]

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system
located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become a little better defined during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
the development of this disturbance over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS has this new direct threat to Hawaii:



00z Euro ends here:

[Twisted-core]

Yup the GFS has a shortwave above the big island and and a trough nne thinks thats will pull it wnw

https://imgur.com/fRgjpgw



https://imgur.com/KeMCtN4

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 450 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for the development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

27/1200 UTC 13.6N 108.5W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific

TXPZ26 KNES 271225
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 27/1200Z

C. 13.6N

D. 108.5W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON MID LEVEL TURNING. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED
ON GT 0.2 BROAD BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 49 58 68 72 75 75 71
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 41 49 58 68 72 75 75 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 46 49 49 49 49 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 2 5 4 6 3 10 15 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 1 -2 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 23 23 34 44 49 276 315 239 258 341 32 64 59
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 159 158 158 156 150 143 138 136 134 135
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 73 71 67 62 59 55 54 55 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 12 13 15 18 19 20 22 21
850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 -4 -3 -6 10 13 28 26 32 29 30 38
200 MB DIV 50 34 43 45 28 27 25 27 5 -10 -25 -17 9
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -10 -14 -11 -2 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 725 726 738 770 781 728 783 870 1048 1256 1488 1712 1907
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.4 18.4 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.0 18.1 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.3 110.1 111.0 111.9 113.8 115.8 118.2 120.8 123.5 126.0 128.0 129.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 8
HEAT CONTENT 35 29 28 33 39 26 14 10 9 5 4 3 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 14. 16. 18. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. 24. 33. 43. 47. 50. 50. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 108.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 19.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 16.4% 11.5% 4.7% 2.3% 18.7% 9.2% 8.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.9% 15.6% 9.8% 1.6% 0.8% 12.6% 9.9% 3.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 28.0% 32.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 475 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue
to show signs of organization. Satellite imagery indicates that
the circulation is currently elongated and lacks a well-defined
center. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression is likely to form tonight or Tuesday while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

27/1800 UTC 14.7N 109.0W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902018 08/27/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 64 75 78 81 81 80
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 54 64 75 78 81 81 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 33 39 46 53 57 59 60 62 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 4 2 2 3 2 3 3 6 7 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 2 3 0 0 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 47 47 70 84 140 289 33 270 81 89 24 37 42
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 159 159 158 155 151 146 142 139 133 129
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 73 71 69 68 64 64 61 57 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 14 16 20 19 20 20 22
850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -6 -8 -4 2 17 26 25 28 43 42 45
200 MB DIV 25 35 31 29 10 19 35 33 15 1 0 -26 -8
700-850 TADV -6 -9 -11 -9 -3 -3 -4 1 0 0 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 707 745 792 787 780 824 889 946 1062 1240 1407 1573 1752
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 28 29 35 42 38 18 13 13 18 10 5 2 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 13. 15. 15. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 29. 39. 50. 53. 56. 56. 55.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 109.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 6.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 20.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.6% 24.0% 16.9% 7.3% 4.5% 25.5% 37.5% 26.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 14.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Consensus: 1.6% 19.8% 13.3% 2.5% 1.6% 15.1% 19.8% 8.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 13.0% 30.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 08/27/18 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

Still a LONG way out but the past couple of Euro runs are hinting that this will go north of the Hawaiian islands, and the GFS is showing this getting south below the islands before being picked up and hitting the islands from the south. Low confidence in both of these track scenarios right now, but a split of both of these track would be a hit on the islands. What is high confidence is the intensity of future Norman -- both models show that it will be a potent hurricane like Lane/Hector.

Here is the 12z run:


Euro is similar to a Lester 2016 track:


GFS in how it sends future Norman south of the islands is similar to a Madeline 2016, Flossie 2007, Jimena 2003 track:

[cycloneye]

Bands are forming.Is very close to TD status.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 500 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have changed little in organization over the
past several hours. However, environmental conditions are still
favorable for development and a tropical depression is expected to
form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves west-northwest to
northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/LTMFfPJ
something in gom too


https://imgur.com/tNd4ZB4

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 550 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization
overnight. However, environmental conditions are still conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.