CPAC: MIRIAM - Post-Tropical
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1900hurricane
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
Easy renumber based on that GPM pass on the previous page.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152018 08/26/18 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75
V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 46 50 53 55 56 57 58 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 5 6 6 14 8 9 10 3 5 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 334 356 20 15 20 355 324 334 329 337 312 256 222
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 142 141 141 142 141 140 136 134 131 125
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 72 73 71 71 71 72 75 76 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 13 16 17 17 18 19 19 22
850 MB ENV VOR -42 -29 -22 -16 -23 -12 1 18 29 35 33 35 38
200 MB DIV 45 58 68 67 38 6 0 48 43 59 58 100 79
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 7
LAND (KM) 1833 1913 1998 2089 2175 2307 2347 2139 1932 1748 1574 1440 1352
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 15.1 16.3 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.3 129.4 131.5 133.5 135.5 137.5 139.2 140.7 141.6 142.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 15 19 24 15 10 13 14 16 12 7 8 6 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. 37. 40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 124.7
** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 6.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 31.3% 26.1% 17.9% 12.3% 20.3% 20.7% 11.1%
Logistic: 25.9% 61.1% 42.4% 32.4% 5.1% 33.2% 12.8% 16.9%
Bayesian: 9.8% 36.7% 14.4% 5.5% 1.5% 18.4% 7.4% 0.2%
Consensus: 17.4% 43.0% 27.6% 18.6% 6.3% 24.0% 13.7% 9.4%
DTOPS: 7.0% 46.0% 23.0% 11.0% 4.0% 11.0% 31.0% 40.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIFTEEN EP152018 08/26/18 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75
V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 46 50 53 55 56 57 58 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 5 6 6 14 8 9 10 3 5 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 334 356 20 15 20 355 324 334 329 337 312 256 222
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 142 141 141 142 141 140 136 134 131 125
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 72 73 71 71 71 72 75 76 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 13 16 17 17 18 19 19 22
850 MB ENV VOR -42 -29 -22 -16 -23 -12 1 18 29 35 33 35 38
200 MB DIV 45 58 68 67 38 6 0 48 43 59 58 100 79
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 7
LAND (KM) 1833 1913 1998 2089 2175 2307 2347 2139 1932 1748 1574 1440 1352
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 15.1 16.3 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.3 129.4 131.5 133.5 135.5 137.5 139.2 140.7 141.6 142.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 15 19 24 15 10 13 14 16 12 7 8 6 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. 37. 40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 124.7
** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 6.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 31.3% 26.1% 17.9% 12.3% 20.3% 20.7% 11.1%
Logistic: 25.9% 61.1% 42.4% 32.4% 5.1% 33.2% 12.8% 16.9%
Bayesian: 9.8% 36.7% 14.4% 5.5% 1.5% 18.4% 7.4% 0.2%
Consensus: 17.4% 43.0% 27.6% 18.6% 6.3% 24.0% 13.7% 9.4%
DTOPS: 7.0% 46.0% 23.0% 11.0% 4.0% 11.0% 31.0% 40.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase
in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery. An earlier
AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but
the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of
the main convective mass. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of
T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but
with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed
for this advisory has been set to 40 kt.
Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should
remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while
it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. The orientation of
the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or
so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south
of due west. The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted
southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly
through the first 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause
Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end
of the forecast period. The latter portion of the official forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with
the HFIP corrected consensus model.
The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for
strengthening. The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C
and within low vertical wind shear conditions. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days
and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Although the
various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not
particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of
the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went
through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of
days. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive
HWRF and HMON dynamical models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase
in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery. An earlier
AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but
the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of
the main convective mass. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of
T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but
with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed
for this advisory has been set to 40 kt.
Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should
remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while
it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. The orientation of
the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or
so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south
of due west. The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted
southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly
through the first 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause
Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end
of the forecast period. The latter portion of the official forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with
the HFIP corrected consensus model.
The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for
strengthening. The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C
and within low vertical wind shear conditions. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days
and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Although the
various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not
particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of
the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went
through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of
days. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive
HWRF and HMON dynamical models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Miriam is a fierce name. A powerful woman. This could be another big one.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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HurricaneRyan
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Miriam is a fierce name. A powerful woman. This could be another big one.
Don't jinx it. People said the same about Fabio and John, and they only peaked as Category 2s.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Up to 45 kts.
EP, 15, 2018082618, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1260W, 45, 1002, TS
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
HurricaneRyan wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Miriam is a fierce name. A powerful woman. This could be another big one.
Don't jinx it. People said the same about Fabio and John, and they only peaked as Category 2s.
ppl were saying that john, emilia, gilma and daniel were going to be strong and guess what, they were weak LOL!
also ppl weren't thinking that lane would be strong but he was BEASTLY
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
The bubbling convection near the center makes me think RI is either going to take place or is happening now. This storm is reminding me of Maria before it went gangbuster.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Kingarabian
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- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Probably the reason for the quick development Miriam has put on:
Mid level shear dropped considerably compared to yesterday. Outflow still looks restricted to the north quad though, due to what looks to be 10-15kts of upper level shear.
FV3GFS has done a horrible job with this system so far. Euro pretty much had it from the beginning, and didn't drop it once.
Mid level shear dropped considerably compared to yesterday. Outflow still looks restricted to the north quad though, due to what looks to be 10-15kts of upper level shear.
FV3GFS has done a horrible job with this system so far. Euro pretty much had it from the beginning, and didn't drop it once.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
Miriam continues to gradually become better organized. The latest
visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps
about three-quarters of the way around the center. Despite the
improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum
winds of about 35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at
40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher
Dvorak-based estimates.
The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt. This westward
motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer
ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone. After
that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then
the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in
the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on this scenario,
there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the
northward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, near the consensus aids.
Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to
the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels
of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C. The latest intensity
models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model
shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the
model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach model. By the end of the forecast period, when
Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due
to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
Miriam continues to gradually become better organized. The latest
visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps
about three-quarters of the way around the center. Despite the
improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum
winds of about 35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at
40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher
Dvorak-based estimates.
The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt. This westward
motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer
ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone. After
that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then
the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in
the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on this scenario,
there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the
northward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, near the consensus aids.
Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to
the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels
of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C. The latest intensity
models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model
shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the
model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach model. By the end of the forecast period, when
Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due
to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2018 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:34:36 N Lon : 126:23:55 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.8mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.2
Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2018 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:34:36 N Lon : 126:23:55 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.8mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.2
Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
ASCAT only finding 35 knot winds is a good example of how Dvorak/ADT can overestimate the intensity of EPAC lows that formed fairly recently.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Yellow Evan wrote:ASCAT only finding 35 knot winds is a good example of how Dvorak/ADT can overestimate the intensity of EPAC lows that formed fairly recently.
How accurate is ASCAT?
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Sciencerocks
- Category 5
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Highteeld wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:ASCAT only finding 35 knot winds is a good example of how Dvorak/ADT can overestimate the intensity of EPAC lows that formed fairly recently.
How accurate is ASCAT?
More accurate then the satellite estimates that were off at least 5-10 knts with Lane for most of its life compared to recon. Also off with storms like Igor, Katrina, Wilma, and Patrica and most gulf systems for that matter. lol
What data does yellow evan argue against the ascat with? Oh'yess, satellite estimates that are typically too low.
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Sciencerocks wrote:Highteeld wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:ASCAT only finding 35 knot winds is a good example of how Dvorak/ADT can overestimate the intensity of EPAC lows that formed fairly recently.
How accurate is ASCAT?
More accurate then the satellite estimates that were off at least 5-10 knts with Lane for most of its life compared to recon. Also off with storms like Igor, Katrina, Wilma, and Patrica and most gulf systems for that matter. lol
What data does yellow evan argue against the ascat with? Oh'yess, satellite estimates that are typically too low.
I don't think anybody here is arguing -- just asking a question out of legitimate ignorance, that's all.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Highteeld wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:ASCAT only finding 35 knot winds is a good example of how Dvorak/ADT can overestimate the intensity of EPAC lows that formed fairly recently.
How accurate is ASCAT?
It's all we have in the pacific ocean when there's no recon, it's mainly used for weak/moderate tropical systems and usually accurate. Dvorak can overdo and underdo a storm's intensity, at these stages, but are usually pretty accurate once the system is a mature hurricane.
Visible and IR imagery shows that the current structure shows the LLC becoming embedded within the CDO. A few more bursts of deep convection and a core will start to form and become apparent on microwave imagery.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2018 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:38 N Lon : 127:12:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.4mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 4.2
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2018 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:38 N Lon : 127:12:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.4mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 4.2
TXPZ28 KNES 270015
TCSENP
A. 15E (MIRIAM)
B. 27/0000Z
C. 13.7N
D. 127.2W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSENP
A. 15E (MIRIAM)
B. 27/0000Z
C. 13.7N
D. 127.2W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
Up to 45 kts.
EP, 15, 2018082700, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1273W, 45, 1001, TS
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Re: EPAC: MIRIAM - Tropical Storm
* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 64 66 70 69 70 69 69 66 62
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 64 66 70 69 70 69 69 66 62
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 61 63 63 63 65 64 60 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 8 17 16 14 12 8 14 27 39
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 0 2 3
SHEAR DIR 349 344 4 358 331 328 337 330 334 269 239 226 214
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 141 142 141 139 136 134 129 122 115
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 71 72 73 71 71 72 73 75 69 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 14 17 17 18 19 21 21 22
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -20 -16 -10 5 17 30 42 36 42 40 42
200 MB DIV 53 70 53 35 30 3 29 20 69 65 105 98 105
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 3 6 12
LAND (KM) 1992 2082 2156 2234 2314 2317 2102 1903 1720 1560 1439 1375 1356
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.2 15.2 17.1 19.0 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.5 129.6 130.7 131.7 133.8 135.9 137.9 139.6 140.8 141.4 141.7 141.9
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 9 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 25 14 10 10 14 14 16 9 6 8 4 3 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 25. 24. 25. 24. 24. 21. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.3
** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 5.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 6.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 41.7% 28.3% 19.5% 13.5% 21.0% 20.3% 9.2%
Logistic: 31.3% 55.8% 38.8% 31.7% 5.8% 21.1% 7.5% 9.1%
Bayesian: 6.9% 29.4% 12.8% 5.3% 1.6% 11.1% 3.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 19.5% 42.3% 26.7% 18.9% 7.0% 17.7% 10.3% 6.1%
DTOPS: 15.0% 33.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 32.0% 9.0% 12.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 64 66 70 69 70 69 69 66 62
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 64 66 70 69 70 69 69 66 62
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 61 63 63 63 65 64 60 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 8 17 16 14 12 8 14 27 39
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 0 2 3
SHEAR DIR 349 344 4 358 331 328 337 330 334 269 239 226 214
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 141 142 141 139 136 134 129 122 115
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 71 72 73 71 71 72 73 75 69 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 14 17 17 18 19 21 21 22
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -20 -16 -10 5 17 30 42 36 42 40 42
200 MB DIV 53 70 53 35 30 3 29 20 69 65 105 98 105
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 3 6 12
LAND (KM) 1992 2082 2156 2234 2314 2317 2102 1903 1720 1560 1439 1375 1356
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.2 15.2 17.1 19.0 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.5 129.6 130.7 131.7 133.8 135.9 137.9 139.6 140.8 141.4 141.7 141.9
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 9 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 25 14 10 10 14 14 16 9 6 8 4 3 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 25. 24. 25. 24. 24. 21. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 127.3
** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 5.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 6.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 41.7% 28.3% 19.5% 13.5% 21.0% 20.3% 9.2%
Logistic: 31.3% 55.8% 38.8% 31.7% 5.8% 21.1% 7.5% 9.1%
Bayesian: 6.9% 29.4% 12.8% 5.3% 1.6% 11.1% 3.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 19.5% 42.3% 26.7% 18.9% 7.0% 17.7% 10.3% 6.1%
DTOPS: 15.0% 33.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 32.0% 9.0% 12.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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