WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS depicts 94W (future Jebi) to be a long-lived, intense typhoon. This would likely be a big ACE storm.

[1900hurricane]

I'd renumber now.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 270253

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (NW OF UJELANG)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 12.76N

D. 159.76E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2234Z 11.85N 159.82E MMHS


LOWE

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 270319
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 12.7N

D. 159.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. DT=1.5 BASED ON 0.3 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Twisted-core]

Ukmet @84hrs


https://imgur.com/3INVeiW

SW monsoon flow appears to ramp the system up into a major @+ 86hrs thinks the met.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to the 25th TC of the year.

25W TWENTYFIVE 180827 0600 13.4N 159.0E WPAC 25 1004

[mrbagyo]

Let's test HWRF's ability in predicting storm structure this far out - it's been pretty good with Soulik

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 270625

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF UJELANG)

B. 27/0600Z

C. 13.39N

D. 159.21E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[mrbagyo]

Initial peak is 105 knots

[Twisted-core]

EC thinks a strong typhoon may threaten the southoun JP islands atm. https://imgur.com/lF75Brw

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Fengshen 2002 is a good analog, similar position but different speed. Lots of ACE as well, nevertheless.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Another war between the models. Rapid intensification very likely...

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CONSOLIDATION,
ALONG WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
T1.0 FROM RJTD, INDICATE THAT TD 25W HAS DEVELOPED INTO A 25 KNOT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A RECENT PGTW POSITION ESTIMATE AND LOW-LEVEL TURNING
EVIDENT IN THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. TD 25W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. RIDGING ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE MULTI-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE ABOUT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A WELL-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH TAU 72 AS BOTH
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAIN FAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND NAVGEM,
INDICATE A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH, WITH SLOWER FORWARD MOTION,
AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL POLEWARD TURN BEYOND TAU 120. OTHER MODELS,
INCLUDING HWRF AND ECMWF, INDICATE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOVEMENT IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DELAYING THE POLEWARD TURN. THIS DIVERGENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IS THE RESULT OF VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
STEERING RIDGE, AND WHERE AND WHEN THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN POLEWARD. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST
TRACK FAVORS THE WESTWARD-STEERING MODELS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, GIVEN THAT
THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SHIFTING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. HOWEVER, DUE TO NOTED INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
TAU 120 AS OUTFLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED AND AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS shifts further southwest, and at a higher intensity. (919 mb vs 940 mb at TAU 180)

[cycloneye]

JMA has first warning on the TD.

TD
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 27 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 27 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E158°55' (158.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 28 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°30' (16.5°)
E156°30' (156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1034065797138788352

[euro6208]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2018



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94W ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 159.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2018 13.2N 159.3E WEAK

12UTC 27.08.2018 14.5N 159.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2018 16.1N 157.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2018 17.2N 155.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 29.08.2018 18.0N 154.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.08.2018 18.1N 152.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.08.2018 18.6N 150.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.08.2018 19.1N 147.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.08.2018 19.9N 144.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.08.2018 20.8N 142.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.09.2018 22.3N 140.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 01.09.2018 24.4N 140.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.09.2018 27.3N 140.2E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

25W TWENTYFIVE 180827 1200 14.1N 158.7E WPAC 30 1002

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 158.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 158.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.6N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.7N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 158.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN