CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Wow. 12z Euro is zzzzzzzzzzzz.

The GFS and Euro seem to have a bad handle on these systems developing closer to 115W-120W, as they had a tough time with Gilma, Hector, and Kristy. They would show those systems for a few runs, then drop them. Then when the systems start to develop, they begin to show development again. Could be the same case here.

97E lacks organized convection, but has a pretty good mid level spin to it:

[hurricanes1234]

What am I looking at?

[Kingarabian]

What am I looking at?

It's not much right now, but some of the meanest and baddest hurricanes originated as open swirls that gradually built convection.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms association with a tropical wave located
about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remain disorganized. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development by
the middle part of the week, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with a low pressure area located about 850 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Looking much better this morning:



Has a classic CV TW look to it.

[Kingarabian]

Shear in front of it doesn't look too bad in the short term:

[Kingarabian]

Euro developing this again although I think it's a bit too slow with development:

[Kingarabian]

Example of how a tough year its been for the models, here is 00z EPS run in regards to 97E:



Here is the 12z EPS run:



PC - Ryan Maue - www.weathermodels.com

[storminabox]

Example of how a tough year its been for the models, here is 00z EPS run in regards to 97E:



Here is the 12z EPS run:



PC - Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com

Truly remarkable. I wonder what changed?

[Kingarabian]

Example of how a tough year its been for the models, here is 00z EPS run in regards to 97E:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/odhHmGu.png[img]

Here is the 12z EPS run:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Y9AaNr8.png[img]

PC - Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com

Truly remarkable. I wonder what changed?

I'm not sure exactly why. Euro and GFS have done this with Fabio, Gilma, Hector, John, and Kristy.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become more concentrated
near the center of a low pressure system located about 900 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next 2 to 3 days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Quite an increase in the % from the 20/50 it had earlier but they had to do it as it has organized a lot.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Quite an increase in the % from the 20/50 it had earlier but they had to do it as it has organized a lot.

I think it's probably because the Euro and UKMET are onboard.

[Chris90]

The associated convection isn't super impressive yet, but the disturbance does have some pretty great spin to it already.
What is everyone thinking for the future of this invest? To me its got that classic look of an invest that could really blow up, but I'm not sure conditions will align in its favor. I'd love to see another long track major like Hector, but I'm not optimistic 97E will provide.

I do think this might develop faster than the NHC is currently calling for though. Wouldn't surprise me if it managed to get declared tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 08/14/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 54 63 70 75 77 80 78
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 54 63 70 75 77 80 78
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 53 60 65 69 73 76
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 13 10 9 7 9 8 4 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -7 -7 -6 -7 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 81 75 73 59 56 62 55 52 55 30 12 335 295
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.7 28.6 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 145 147 149 141 140 136 138 135 141 150 147
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.9 -54.3 -54.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 73 75 75 72 73 74 76 73 71 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -25 -22 -18 -10 -9 -3 2 12 9 4 -12
200 MB DIV 10 4 0 4 24 54 53 42 59 53 22 25 29
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 1495 1564 1643 1744 1832 2001 2155 2292 2395 2495 2586 2545 2345
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.9 12.0
LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.7 123.5 125.3 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.3 132.8 134.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 13 22 24 13 10 10 20 26 29 28 20 18 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 21. 29. 38. 45. 50. 52. 55. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 117.3

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 3.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 14.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 14.1% 4.6% 2.4% 3.0% 5.6% 31.8% 62.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 3.1%
Consensus: 0.7% 10.7% 6.4% 0.8% 1.1% 6.1% 15.6% 22.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% 50.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

Up to 60/90.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. A large low pressure system is located about 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system is located just over a 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized, and
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical
depression to form during the next couple of days while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1029337951946330113

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 08/14/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 71 79 85 88 87
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 71 79 85 88 87
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 46 54 63 72 79 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 4 7 7 4 7 3 3 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -5
SHEAR DIR 63 57 55 58 63 81 47 70 67 52 76 135 131
SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.7 28.8 28.6 27.2 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 142 140 143 140 139 138 131 152 150 135 134
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 73 71 71 70 73 71 71 65 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -13 -10 -11 -11 -3 4 11 21 11 -1 -12
200 MB DIV -6 -8 8 40 57 73 77 53 38 32 19 8 18
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1
LAND (KM) 1568 1623 1688 1765 1837 1970 2139 2315 2532 2515 2354 2199 2036
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.3
LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.0 120.0 121.0 122.0 124.0 126.4 128.8 131.1 133.3 135.0 136.5 137.8
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 17 23 18 12 11 14 17 20 19 13 11 10 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 18. 17.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 36. 46. 54. 60. 63. 62.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 118.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -1.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 15.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.8% 7.4% 22.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Consensus: 0.3% 7.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.2% 5.0% 7.7% 7.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 21.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX