WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Guidance doesn't do anything with 91W for a couple more days still, but its time is likely coming.

[euro6208]

It sure is going to be interesting the next few days as Pre-Maria might threaten land.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 012117
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 8.3N

D. 149.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM
IR DATA. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN
DT=1.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[euro6208]

EURO with it's lowest pressure after the 00Z 941mb run.



GFS says it's the Southern Ryukyu Islands yet again. GFS very persistent on developing this into a very powerful storm. 1 run had it bottoming out at 897 mb.

[cycloneye]

TXPQ21 KNES 012117
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 8.3N

D. 149.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM
IR DATA. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN
DT=1.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012028Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 020054
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1054 AM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

GUZ001>004-030000-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1054 AM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEARLY-STATIONARY SOUTHEAST THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM...335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN NEAR 10N148E. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY
FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.


LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE NEARLY-STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BRINGS IT ON A GRADUAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NEAR GUAM ON WEDNESDAY. FORECASTS ARE BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...THUS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ON TRACK AND TIMING OF PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

BASED ON CURRENT NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARIANAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON GUAM
AND ROTA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AND RAIN ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR AND/OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE
OF THESE CONDITIONS AND LOOK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING
THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD

[euro6208]

18z GFS takes Maria to Okinawa as a very strong typhoon.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 020054
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1054 AM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

GUZ001>004-030000-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1054 AM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEARLY-STATIONARY SOUTHEAST THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM...335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN NEAR 10N148E. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY
FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.


LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE NEARLY-STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BRINGS IT ON A GRADUAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NEAR GUAM ON WEDNESDAY. FORECASTS ARE BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...THUS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ON TRACK AND TIMING OF PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

BASED ON CURRENT NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARIANAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON GUAM
AND ROTA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AND RAIN ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR AND/OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE
OF THESE CONDITIONS AND LOOK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING
THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

M. AYDLETT/GUARD

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 148.6E TO 12.6N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 147.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 148.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012336Z
MHS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WESTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN
ELONGATED, FORMATIVE LLCC. A 011101Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 10 TO 15
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 18N 160E,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW VIGOROUS EASTERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW, WHICH MAY FUEL
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND TRACKS NEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

There goes our Indenpendance day.

482
WWMY80 PGUM 020311
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
111 PM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

GUZ001>004-021515-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
111 PM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

...DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM LIKELY TO DEVELOP...

THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND 355
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN NEAR 10N148E. THIS
DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY-STATIONARY.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE NEARLY-STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BRINGS IT ON A GRADUAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NEAR GUAM ON WEDNESDAY. FORECASTS ARE BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...THUS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

BASED ON CURRENT NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARIANAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON
GUAM AND ROTA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND AND RAIN ON TINIAN AND
SAIPAN.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
THESE CONDITIONS AND LOOK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

M AYDLETT/GUARD

[mrbagyo]

Deep convection is exploding near the LLC.
Could be an early sign of developing CCC

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 020650
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
450 PM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

PMZ171-172-022100-
YAP-CHUUK-
450 PM ChST Mon Jul 2 2018

...MONSOON FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN YAP AND WESTERN CHUUK
STATES...

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED 340 MILES NORTHWEST OF WENO
CHUUK NEAR 10N148E AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
PRESENT NEAR THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS MOST OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES.

THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM CHUUK STATE AND WILL PASS WELL
NORTH OF YAP AND ULITHI AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
SHOWERS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY MONSOON WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL BOATS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SOME COASTAL
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORES.

WHILE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS CHUUK LAGOON...WE
DO NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR CHANGES IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

RESIDENTS ON THESE ATOLLS AND ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES AND HEED INSTRUCTIONS FROM
THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

$$

M AYDLETT/GUARD

[cycloneye]

JMA has a marked low pressure and forecasts it will be a TD in 24 hours.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 148E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

The global models make Maria quite strong.

[euro6208]

EURO aiming for Taiwan.

[euro6208]

Peak and raking the Southern Ryukyu's...

[euro6208]

ICON

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
ECMWF EPS trending more aggressive with a strong Typhoon to spin up over the West Pacific, threatening eastern Asia for landfall.



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1013773805104390144

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 021203

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 8.47N

D. 147.55E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ZOUFALY


TXPQ21 KNES 020914
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 02/0830Z

C. 8.8N

D. 146.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CURVED BANDING WRAPS GREATER THAN .2 FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT=1.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO