CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

[div]

09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)

What elevation is this station at?

[tolakram]

[div]

09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)

What elevation is this station at?

You can google OFRH1

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/site.php?station=OFRH1&network=HI_DCP

682.535 meters, 2239 feet

[Kingarabian]

Raining hard here in Honolulu now. Occasional strong gusts.

12z GFS into Maui again

[tolakram]

Heavier rain getting closer.

[plasticup]

Classic CCC pattern emerging.

What is a CCC pattern? I'm not familiar with this terminology? Thanks!

Central cold cover.

[supercane]

What is a CCC pattern? I'm not familiar with this terminology? Thanks!

CCC=central cold cover
From the original 1984 Dvorak paper describing satellite-derived intensity estimates, "The CCC is observed as a round, cold overcast near the storm center that develops as the curved band pattern dissipates...the appearance of the cold central cover is used in the technique to signal an interruption in the development of a storm."

[tolakram]

About an hour away from first visible.

[boulderrr]

Looks like the 12Z GFS has the center of circulation getting very close to Maui, but does not make landfall prior to turning west.

This is about as close as it gets prior to turning west:

[hawaiigirl]

Still calm here at the Franciscan monastery in Waialua.
We are up on a mountain overlooking the North shore. If you have Instagram, I will post videos on my stories @haku_lei_haleiwa.
Side note: if you are not safe where you are and need a place to stay, please text me at (808) 590-6481 and I will give you directions to get here where there is a basement. Aloha

[tolakram]

SLIDER using the himawari sat. Faster to update but at the very edge of its range.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=20462&y=7195&z=5&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=12&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[plasticup]

Looks like the 12Z GFS has the center of circulation getting very close to Maui, but does not make landfall prior to turning west.

This is about as close as it gets prior to turning west:

There is good model agreement on keeping this thing offshore. Unlikely to be much of a wind event. CPHC estimates <5% change of on-shore hurricane force winds. But that stalling pattern will bring incredible rains. Harvey-level rains.

[Visioen]

Classic CCC pattern emerging.

What is a CCC pattern? I'm not familiar with this terminology? Thanks!

Very very interesting read (and understandable to me, an amateur):

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/1 ... 2.0.CO%3B2

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

LOoks like the core is holding together still. a little ragged but just dont see it weakening below a cat 2 before land interaction.

but who knows.

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks to heading to the NNE maybe almost NE now on radar ( just getting caught up after a long sleep )


Also appears to be building more of anticyclone above it. with that much deep convection I am not surprised I guess.

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=20518&y=7406&z=4&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=2&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[BobHarlem]

Volcanoes impacting Lane's track?
--

@webberweather

Lane is close enough to the BI where track deflection to the east matters. If the BI's volcanoes were more zonally extensive, #Lane might have deflected to the west instead here. The slower Lane moves, the more track deflection it'll experience. See: https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 007-0284-1 …

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033028070100410369




and
#Lane is exhibiting a classic central cold cover (CCC) pattern w/ a very deep, symmetrical, & extensive convective canopy over its LLC. Dvorak (1984) & others have noted this is often occurs w/ TCs whose development & intensity doesn't change much overall. http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/ ... s/Tropical

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1033040497177243650

[tolakram]

Looks like part of the circulation is still intact. Keep in mind this is mostly the MLC due to distance from the radar site.

[boulderrr]

WTPA62 PHFO 241410 CCA
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
410 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

Automated Surface Observations for Peak Gusts:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
12:00Z Puu Mali, Big Island................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
10:00Z Waikoloa, Big Island (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 km/h)
12:00Z Kaneloa, Kohoolawe (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
12:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
10:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 42 MPH (68 km/h)
12:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)
10:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)

Automated Surface Observations for Sustained Wind Speeds:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 km/h)
12:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
13:00Z PTA West, Big Island (PKWH1)........... 37 MPH (60 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWS, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 46 MPH (74 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 400 AM HST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 158.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

Can you point me to where this is linked from? Just want to keep an eye out for future updates and haven't been able to find where you accessed it from.

I was able to find the actual bulletin (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/ar ... 1808241550), but just not where it is accessed from.

Thanks!

[tolakram]

WTPA62 PHFO 241410 CCA
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
410 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

Can you point me to where this is linked? Just want to keep an eye out for future updates and haven't been able to find where you accessed it from. Thanks!

It was from the CPHC Lane page, on the right side, local statements, but they changed it. Looking around for it now.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane

Yes, a couple of links in, from this page: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/obs.php

Hawaii rainfall summary: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/HFO/RRAHFO