WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Center is presently located well to the east of Saipan, but that WSW dip that is forecast to occur as the typhoon nears the Marianas is expected to take the center near or over Rota.

[mrbagyo]

So, the latest run from Euro now has a North Luzon Landfall - interesting.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1038668101804412928

[doomhaMwx]

So, the latest run from Euro now has a North Luzon Landfall - interesting.

I wonder if the next(12Z) run will be more south.

[mrbagyo]

[NotoSans]

Structure revealed by latest microwave imagery doesn’t seem really conducive for RI.

[mrbagyo]

Just like yesterday, convection starts to build up near the center as the sun goes down.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Structure revealed by latest microwave imagery doesn’t seem really conducive for RI.

Conditions say otherwise. I wouldn't let my guard down if I were in Guam or the NMI. I was about to comment on its structure as well, but convection has been building up significantly. It looked kinda like a hot mess yesterday morning, but it recovered soon after.

[euro6208]

It's a fast mover and forecast to remain this way after it exits the Marianas.

[mrbagyo]

70 knots


26W MANGKHUT 180909 0600 15.3N 152.9E WPAC 70 970

[mrbagyo]

Oh boy, EPS is getting tighter and trending more to the south (NE tip of Luzon, Babuyan Islands)

[cycloneye]

[mrbagyo]

Still moving almost due west, I still can't see any southern component on it

[cycloneye]

Looks like the dip may occur after it passes 150E.We will see.

[euro6208]

JMA right through Rota.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)
WARNING NR 10 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TY 26W IS CONTINUING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND,
INTENSIFYING FROM 40 TO 70 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 090541Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH A 090540Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION IN THE
SYSTEM, LEADING TO MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, SST
AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS CONTINUE TO BE UNUSUALLY
FAST (AND UNDERFORECAST BY THE MODELS) LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT GUAM CPA.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STEERING 26W GENERALLY WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 77 NM AT TAU 24 NEAR ROTA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-NAVGEM WHICH ARE THE NORTHERN
OUTLIERS, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 AS 26W APPROACHES GUAM DUE TO A RE-
ORIENTATION OF THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER WESTERN JAPAN. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS PASSES OVER ROTA
JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO REFLECT FASTER-THAN-PREDICTED
FORWARD STORM MOTION, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE CPA TO GUAM BEING
SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE MORE GRADUAL, WITH 26W REACHING 110 KTS BY TAU 36 AND
120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72. HWRF PREDICTS A MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, WHILE COAMPS-GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM
SHOW FASTER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW A NORTHWARD
COMPONENT IN THE STORM MOTION. TRACK SPREAD IS 365 NM AT TAU 120.
ECMWF IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND THE JAPANESE MODEL JGSM AND JGSM
ENSEMBLE ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS, SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE DEGREE OF NORTHWARD MOTION DEPENDS ON HOW EACH MODEL
TREATS THE STR. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSITY IS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120.
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 72,
EVEN EXCEEDING THE CURRENT FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KTS AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS FAIR IN THE LATE TERM BASED ON THE INCREASING SPREAD IN
MODEL TRACKS AFTER TAU 96.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: IN PARA 2, TY 26W HAS INTENSIFIED
FROM 40 KTS TO 70 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Even the usually conservative JMA takes this really deep.

[euro6208]

All global models except JMA takes a very intense system into Luzon or Batanes, a group of islands off the coast.

EURO



GFS

[1900hurricane]

Maybe a little core flux with two different types of inner cores trying to develop (a larger and a smaller one).

[mrbagyo]

Ok, now I can see that WSW dip