WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Beautiful but deadly.

[Hayabusa]

UKMET insisting a Luzon landfall, but GFS 00z shifted too to a Philippine landfall

FXXT03 EGRR 240356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2018

TYPHOON YUTU ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 147.9E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.10.2018 13.3N 147.9E INTENSE
12UTC 24.10.2018 14.7N 146.5E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2018 15.7N 144.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2018 16.3N 142.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.10.2018 16.6N 141.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.10.2018 16.9N 138.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2018 17.5N 136.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.10.2018 17.5N 133.3E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2018 16.9N 130.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 16.2N 128.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 15.6N 126.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2018 15.5N 125.1E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2018 16.1N 123.3E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

Luzon landfall? This will rake up the ACE big time.

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT24 051000 6.5 930.6 127.0 6.4 6.7 7.5 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 22.08 -78.63 EYE 21 IR 94.3 13.94 -147.18 ARCHER HIM-8 18.0
If the cloud tops are in the -80Cs, this would be at T raw 7.8 like Kong-rey, I think Yutu has the chance to beat (or at least tie) Kong-rey's ADT, and if ADT were go to 8.0, this would probably the first time for a WPAC tropical cyclone having an ADT whether it's just raw T or not a number of 8.0

This was Kong-rey's

Code: Select all

2018OCT01 114000  6.8  923.3 134.8  6.8 7.0 7.8  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF  21.07 -80.44  EYE     15 IR  73.6   16.82 -134.41  ARCHER   HIM-8 21.0

[Hayabusa]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR YUTU (31W) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10232333
SATCON: MSLP = 927 hPa MSW = 139 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 135.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 124 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0.7 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 931 hPa 127 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT240210
CIMSS AMSU: 918 hPa 147 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10232333
ATMS: 948.8 hPa 104.1 knots Date: 10231520
SSMIS: 926.0 hPa 139.0 knots Date: 10232023
CIRA ATMS: 951 hPa 104 knots Date: 10231521

[NotoSans]

CI 7.5 from JTWC and 7.0 from JMA. Expect 145 to 150 knots at 06Z.

[Hayabusa]

Sometimes even if JTWC is at 7.5 they just go with 140 knots, but this is threatening a US territory so 145 or above is not out of the stretch
TPPN10 PGTW 240550

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 24/0530Z

C. 13.94N

D. 147.18E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET 6.0. PT 7.0. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 22NM. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 2.5 OVER 24 HOURS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

999 mb in Saipan. Winds 39 gusting to 58 mph.

[Hayabusa]

145 knots
31W YUTU 181024 0600 13.9N 147.1E WPAC 145 908

[Hayabusa]

For the model that really likes to recurve

[Hayabusa]

TY 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 October 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°00' (14.0°)
E147°05' (147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1054882568854818817

[Hayabusa]

Dr. Maue predicting 170 knots peak intensity
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1054980196007337984

[mrbagyo]

Hope someone has kestrel weather logger in Saipan and Tinian. Power would go down as soon as the core starts moving in.
This might be a sub 900 mb storm -
Labor Day Cane's land base barometric pressure record is in jeopardy

[mrbagyo]

METAR: PGSN 240700Z 02025G38KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR FEW016 OVC029 26/26 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/0657 P0004 T02560256 $

[Hayabusa]

Eye trying to go to 23C
2018OCT24 064000 6.7 922.4 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.5 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.95 -78.61 EYE 22 IR 64.3 13.98 -146.95 ARCHER HIM-8 17.9

[galaxy401]

Looks like nothing is really going to stop Yutu from weakening for at least 3-4 days. What's the longest a cyclone has maintained category 5 intensity? Yutu could give it some competition.

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This could be the first >50 ACE storm in the 2010s. I'm expecting fluctuations to occur later, but remaining at least a category 5 for the next 72 hours is likely guaranteed.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like nothing is really going to stop Yutu from weakening for at least 3-4 days. What's the longest a cyclone has maintained category 5 intensity? Yutu could give it some competition.

Mangkhut held onto category 5 intensity for at least 3 days, the longest in recent memory---closely followed by Chaba and Joan. Nancy (1961) is the record holder, in the neighborhood of 4-5 days. However, wind estimates at the time are questionable.