ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM @ Bay/Walton County (Rosemary Bch) line at 992mb there about. 45kts sustained with gusts to 90mph as it approaches the Emerald Coast. A bit East for the ECM.

Landfall Thursday afternoon.

[Stormcenter]

EURO is definitely slower.

[Siker]

The UKMET Text outputs always have waaaay lower winds than you would expect for the pressures. Safe to assume normal wind /pressure relationships: it’s showing a Cat 3.

[otowntiger]

Looks like Euro is going to shift west some and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.

from what I can tell it was a slight shift east from last nights run.. MHO

yep, I edited. But I think the main thing is it’s not jumping on the intensity train at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Euro is going to shift west some and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.

from what I can tell it was a slight shift east from last nights run.. MHO

yep, I edited. But I think the main thing is it’s not jumping on the intensity train at this time.

do to its speed... the models that are stronger are nearly 24 hours slower that is a huge difference.

HWRF, GFS, UKMET are 20 to 24 hours slower than the faster weaker models.. that cant be overlooked just because the tracks are along the same portion of the coast. 24 hour difference is not a consensus.

[OuterBanker]

Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

Really? The 144 hr would put that just east of Cape Hatteras with a strengthening 90 mph hurricane.
(I guess that would be possible because it would be in the Gulf stream at that position).
That scenario would also not be good for NC either.
Not gonna happen though.

[toad strangler]

Looks like Euro is going to shift west some and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.

from what I can tell it was a slight shift east from last nights run.. MHO

yep, I edited. But I think the main thing is it’s not jumping on the intensity train at this time.

Intensity is one of the weakest aspects of modeling in general. Grain of salt.

[CrazyC83]

A faster storm ends up farther west, and a slower storm farther east, correct?

[CrazyC83]

Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly?

Something is seriously wrong with the pressure-wind relationship in this UKMET text output. As far as I know, there has never been an Atlantic Cat. 2 hurricane with a pressure below 940 mb on record.

Edit: Also note that these could be 10-minute sustained values which would equate to 108 kt. Still, the PW-relationship seems way off to me.

There have been a few cat 2's with pressures in the 930s, but they were usually transitioning to extratropical at the time.

[Aric Dunn]

A faster storm ends up farther west, and a slower storm farther east, correct?

the spread in track is about the same.. the strength is far different. SLower equals much stronger.

[Dean4Storms]

A faster storm ends up farther west, and a slower storm farther east, correct?

Not according to the 12z ECM.... A day later on Thurs and closer to PCB whereas the GFS further West near P'Cola along with the FV3 on Wed. afternoon.

[WAcyclone]

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly?

Something is seriously wrong with the pressure-wind relationship in this UKMET text output. As far as I know, there has never been an Atlantic Cat. 2 hurricane with a pressure below 940 mb on record.

Edit: Also note that these could be 10-minute sustained values which would equate to 108 kt. Still, the PW-relationship seems way off to me.

There have been a few cat 2's with pressures in the 930s, but they were usually transitioning to extratropical at the time.

Interesting. Here is Sam Lillos's awesome graphic showing the relationship for the Atlantic:

[Dean4Storms]

A faster storm ends up farther west, and a slower storm farther east, correct?

Not according to the 12z ECM.... A day later on Thurs and closer to PCB whereas the GFS further West near P'Cola along with the FV3 on Wed. afternoon.

My bad, you're right. Read that backwards.....long day!

[p1nheadlarry]

The 0600Z and 1200Z runs as displayed on tropicalatlantic.com sure has the FL Panhandle and Big Bend in the crosshairs. Will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. Hi, pinheadlarry, glad to know there is another from Gulf County.

What’s up? Inland so mostly worried about downed trees

[robbielyn]

18z in line with nhc pensacola/mobile area. 18z stayed home tonight. no happy hour lol

[Emmett_Brown]

18Z GFS showing landfall in the W FL panhandle around 12Z Wed. This is a full 24 hours faster than the 12Z Euro run, landfalling in the same general area around 12Z Thurs. Interesting differences in forward speed of the Euro and GFS at just a few days out from the event.

[Dean4Storms]

18z NAVGEM about on top 18z GFS landfall location.

[TheStormExpert]

This place surely died down tonight!

[robbielyn]

probably because of the slothy slow loading of pages.

[otowntiger]

probably because of the slothy slow loading of pages.

Yeah, what’s up with this site???