ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The system is definitely pulling together despite 20 kt southwesterly shear in the NW Caribbean.. It is looking decent this morning with deep convective tops just removed from the coc to its east and northeast.

Getting a bad vibe about future Michael concerning
rapid intensification once the center moves into the Eastern /Northeast GOM by Tuesday. The models just may be right in showing pretty favorable conditions with shear really.dropping off next 36-48 hours.

[NDG]

Latest SHIPS now has wind shear over TD 14 in the 10-14 knot range Tuesday & Wednesday.

Edit: I was still looking at the 06z run, the latest 12z run paints even lower wind shear, down 8-9 knots Tuesday night. Also lower windshear over the next 48 hrs than previous runs.

[toad strangler]

This chaser has been around the world doing this and he says he is going to chase Michael.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1048882708955377664

He used to call himself "Hurricane Josh" when he posted on weather forums. He also used to chase only Atlantic Basin cyclones. But that didn't last long. He did not like getting shut out for a whole season. He also used to say he would NEVER island chase.

[NDG]

I wonder if wxman57 is still calling for only a 50 knot storm at landfall, I’m sure he’s now siding with the NHC of a Cat 1

[StruThiO]

Me too ndg. 4g mobile data quicker than wifi. Bizarre. Still slow tho. Hope server issues fixed asap. Td14 looking ominous

[p1nheadlarry]

When was the last time the FL Panhandle was hit by a major hurricane? If the Euro and GFS were to be correct, I believe this will be the first one since Hurricane Dennis '05 which had a small core of hurricane force winds and damage was not widespread, since then that area has super developed especially from Destin to the Panama City area.

Dennis 2005

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is starting to look like a significant storm. I'm surprised the NHC is only showing 65 knots, I'd go with 95 knots at landfall.

[Cypresso]

This is starting to look like a significant storm. I'm surprised the NHC is only showing 65 knots, I'd go with 95 knots at landfall.

Does look to be quite a bit larger and more powerful at this time than what was previously expected.

[KWT]

In these sorts of statement typically the inverse of what happens occurs, they often error more to the right of the track in an effective recurve system. Not always obviously but worth watching for sure...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm still getting creepy Opal vibes here. Seems to be what GFS and Euro are pointing to

[DestinHurricane]

Is the NHC discounting the Euro and GFS intensity?

[pgoss11]

I'm still getting creepy Opal vibes here. Seems to be what GFS and Euro are pointing to

I believe after landfall Opal headed more North than NE. Michael should be leaning more right after landfall

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hmm...interesting. We'll see what happens...still only partially organized, no convection whatsoever over the Yucatan, meaning he's lopsided. That might change when he emerges into the wider GOMEX. We shall see.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon should be heading out in about 30 minutes. Waiting till o see what we are going to end up dealing with here. Gotta work today so hopefully I don’t come home at 9 pm to see a strong tropical storm already, but I have a feeling that is what we will have by the end of the day today.

[PSUHiker31]

Obviously the strength trends in the overnight models aren't good.... But now I'm faced with the question of how big will this system be, and how far off the west coast of Florida will it be, and in relation to that what kind of surge can the west coast of Florida experience? I have some work to do on this front to figure this out. I know the UKMET is the only model that has come close to the west coast, but it has been remarkably consistent with its big bend landfall projection.

[Clearcloudz]

This is a tropical storm already, we might have Michael at 11AM

[Kazmit]

Is the NHC discounting the Euro and GFS intensity?

I suspect they will raise the peak intensity for the next advisory.

[cjrciadt]

I will go with 995mb extrap pressure they will find

[SunnyThoughts]

Gov. Scott issuing a state of emergency later today according to the weather channel. (Fla. Gov.)

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to me the NHC is being conservative with current intensity, looks like 45 to 50kts, we’ll see what recon finds in a few hours