ATL: ISAAC - Models

[StormyWaters93]

won't happen, this will be a mexico to la type storm.......it won't make that type of right curve, trough, fronts, won't be that strong this time of year that's a mid october pattern.

Never say never. This season has been full of surprises so far!

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[wxGuy]

won't happen, this will be a mexico to la type storm.......it won't make that type of right curve, trough, fronts, won't be that strong this time of year that's a mid october pattern.

look at all the esembles for every wave out there right now.. due west... #whatrecurve
the african wave train is awaken

[stormlover2013]

nah u can never say never, but 90 percent of the time that is a mid october-november pattern...........

[wxGuy]

nah u can never say never, but 90 percent of the time that is a mid october-november pattern...........

explain your pattern sir

[Hypercane_Kyle]

PTC8 will be upgraded to TD8 at 5, so unless 92L rapidly becomes better organized today, I think this will become Isaac.

[wxGuy]

PTC8 will be upgraded to TD8 at 5, so unless 92L rapidly becomes better organized today, I think this will become Isaac.

thats quick

[stormlover2013]

nah u can never say never, but 90 percent of the time that is a mid october-november pattern...........

explain your pattern sir

It is hard to tell how the pattern across the Atlantic is going to shape up but either way, it looks like a busy one down the stretch as we near the peak (Sept. 11) of hurricane season, but my 16 years of tracking storms that get that for south and maybe to the yuc channel in Sept usually is mexico to la most of the time, I know GFS is notorious for showing stronger toughs and fronts in sept and the end up not that strong, that's why u been seeing models at first show 92l feel the ridge and get back open into the atlantic as a fish and now the last 3-4 days its showing it heading more west because the ridge isn't going to break down as much, but its a messy pattern right now I will say that. All I know is if 92L makes it by the Yuc channel it will favor more to the western gulf. Now if this was october then I would say New Orleans to florida then out to sea it would have to be a pretty good front.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Stormlover2013,

As I stated I do understand the late September October setup bring storms back NE. Which Is why I inquired about Florence creating a possible weakness. I do agree if the high pressure in the Atlantic stays as strong as it has, the most likely path is west.

[stormlover2013]

but also with florence and if it stays strong when its on the east coast it could sweep a cold front threw so just never know

[SoupBone]

won't happen, this will be a mexico to la type storm.......it won't make that type of right curve, trough, fronts, won't be that strong this time of year that's a mid october pattern.

Absolutes? There have been troughs dip down and carry systems off in September, just like the GFS solution.

[Nimbus]

Stormlover2013,

As I stated I do understand the late September October setup bring storms back NE. Which Is why I inquired about Florence creating a possible weakness. I do agree if the high pressure in the Atlantic stays as strong as it has, the most likely path is west.

That is a good question most of us should be asking. Hurricanes effect the upper air environment often times pumping the high pressure area they are traveling in (when they are major Hurricanes).

There is probably some ideal distance between storms where a weakness is kept open or ridging is likely to build back in. So the current nine forecast is probably dependent on when Florence is forecast to redevelop into a major storm.

[SoupBone]

GFS at between 126-132 has it heading WSW toward Dominica, Martinique, etc. (Southern Islands).

[SoupBone]

Right on top of Martinique at 144 (September 13th).

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFS steadily weakens this in the E Carib and then loses it at hour 264 between Hispaniola and Cuba

[SoupBone]

At 240 it's heading NW through between Haiti and Cuba, and then goes poof, at least though hour 336.

[SoupBone]

So through 384, the GFS loses it completely after getting near Haiti at hour 240.

[artist]

[Steve]

So through 384, the GFS loses it completely after getting near Haiti at hour 240.

It’s not out of the question that it could be right. The East Caribbean isn’t always hostile, and it often turns favorable later in the season than other parts of the Atlantic. But it’s hard to get a read that far out. MJO forecasts have been changing every day. The most recent ones from JMA, EC and predicted by NCEP aren’t necessarily unfavorable in 10-12 days as they were. None of them stay in 8 which is where it is initialized. But they mostly move within the circle. That can be a mixed signal for the western part of the basin even though we know Atlantic conditions are going to move back to less/unfavorable after a couple of weeks.

Early thoughts as to the comments on Mexico are if 9 makes it down to the BoC and comes back NE, that probably signals the end of the season for the west basin. Otherwise, we could still see an October pulse of a couple of systems once things turn again. But who knows. It could be strong and come across. Strong and die out or weaken or whatever. Conditions shouldn’t be terrible along the way, but I don’t have a read on this one.

[SoupBone]

GFS goes poof at 186 hours. Let's see if it regenerates.

[SoupBone]

So at 360 hours, it still hasn't regenerated. Safe to say it won't through 384. Interesting in that it gains a little latitude before hitting the islands. It hits Dominica, rather than right on top of Martinique. It's not much, but after the islands it gains a good bit more latitude compared to the previous run. Maybe this starts a trend. Let's hope.