ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

I'm a bit disappointed that there wasn't a 12Z HWRF...unless I just can't find it. Guess I'll be waiting another model cycle for it.

hwrf probably spins up a major inside 72 hours

[JPmia]

and it hasn't hit the Gulf Stream yet.. that usually gives these suckers a little boost.

[eastcoastFL]

Its been very breezy here in palm beach with some heavy thunderstorms since this morning.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z ECMWF looks to initialise too weakly vs. current trends. It may not be correctly handling the small size of the circulation. This will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it impacts the FL Keys and South FL. I would estimate 40 to 45 knots, possibly slightly stronger, by that time. The main threat will remain locally copious precipitation over the Keys and southern FL peninsula. None of the global models seems to be handling 91L well in the short term.

[MississippiWx]

The 12Z ECMWF looks to initialise too weakly vs. current trends. It may not be correctly handling the small size of the circulation. This will likely be a weak tropical storm by the time it impacts the FL Keys and South FL. I would estimate 40 to 45 knots, possibly slightly stronger, by that time. The main threat will remain locally copious precipitation over the Keys and southern FL peninsula. None of the global models seems to be handling 91L well in the short term.

This. I believe the size of the system is difficult for them to digest. Euro with a weak tropical storm into the Northern Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

[eastcoastFL]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

Without a defined center are we sure about what its current heading is and how far north into Florida could be effected?

[Clearcloudz]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

Hey Aric, is it possible the global models are having a hard time with this system because how fairly small system it is. Do you think the hurricane models like the HWRF and HMON will have a different solution.

[JPmia]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

what would you estimate at the moment? mid level Tropical Storm?

[SunnyThoughts]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

Hopefully at least some shear shows up by the time it hits the gulf to keep it in check.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it may be gaining some latitude lifting away from Cuba? Perhaps it is just an MLC (mid-level center):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[Aric Dunn]

meso sector is over it. 1 min images. looks to really beginning to come together.

if you use the slider you can see the low level flow pretty clear now coming in from the wsw. wish it was zoomed in more though.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

[Aric Dunn]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

Hey Aric, is it possible the global models are having a hard time with this system because how fairly small system it is. Do you think the hurricane models like the HWRF and HMON will have a different solution.

It's possible. I am not sure why the models have issues sometimes.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the nearly complete lack of shear ( despite all the models still showing it) from here to the Gulf and its current organization could see this spin up pretty quick before florida/keys.

what would you estimate at the moment? mid level Tropical Storm?

yeah a decent TS is possible.

[tgenius]

So assuming it keeps looking like it’s coming together I’d assume they would probably issue watches (though given time might go straight to warnings) for Bahamas Fl keys and south fl.

[Aric Dunn]

just another floater view/


https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... 0(Band%202)&time_drop=show

[Aric Dunn]

So assuming it keeps looking like it’s coming together I’d assume they would probably issue watches (though given time might go straight to warnings) for Bahamas Fl keys and south fl.

yeah assuming they can confirm a closed circ.. quick someone get on a boat and go check

[PSUHiker31]

I just hope this doesn't pull an H with the models constantly playing catch up on strength. They've already started behind the ball.

[tgenius]

So assuming it keeps looking like it’s coming together I’d assume they would probably issue watches (though given time might go straight to warnings) for Bahamas Fl keys and south fl.

yeah assuming they can confirm a closed circ.. quick someone get on a boat and go check

I can tell you with the holiday weekend there’s a lot of people not in Miami this weekend. In any event it’s gonna be a lot of rain tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

So assuming it keeps looking like it’s coming together I’d assume they would probably issue watches (though given time might go straight to warnings) for Bahamas Fl keys and south fl.

yeah assuming they can confirm a closed circ.. quick someone get on a boat and go check

I can tell you with the holiday weekend there’s a lot of people not in Miami this weekend. In any event it’s gonna be a lot of rain tomorrow.

already had a1.46 at the house since 1 am and the radar is lighting up to the east...wouldn't be surprised to go over 5 by the time its over