ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Steve]

Several of the higher resolution models showed this north jog before a bend back to the west. I believe the hurricane hunters will find a hurricane when they return. If the jog west occurs it will have enough time to strengthen more. If not, then there isn’t enough time.

Mega win for the RGEM if it’s hitting on this. Too early to tell, but you can see what appears to be that mid level center paralleling the coast in the last few visible frames vs the 18z run. Remains to be seen and I’ve said i though it was too far west. We will see in the next 3 hours if more of us in MS and LA might get a piece of this.

18z RGEM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90418&fh=6

Vis
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Overall it’s clearly moving NW, but not sure on the short term. Difference could be Baldwin, Mobile, Jackson or Harrison County (maybe even Hancock but I don’t think so).

[MississippiWx]

Gordon finally looks like a hurricane on satellite.

[MississippiWx]

Several of the higher resolution models showed this north jog before a bend back to the west. I believe the hurricane hunters will find a hurricane when they return. If the jog west occurs it will have enough time to strengthen more. If not, then there isn’t enough time.

Mega win for the RGEM if it’s hitting on this. Too early to tell, but you can see what appears to be that mid level center paralleling the coast in the last few visible frames vs the 18z run. Remains to be seen and I’ve said i though it was too far west. We will see in the next 3 hours if more of us in MS and LA might get a piece of this.

18z RGEM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90418&fh=6

Vis
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Overall it’s clearly moving NW, but not sure on the short term. Difference could be Baldwin, Mobile, Jackson or Harrison County (maybe even Hancock but I don’t think so).

I don't believe that's the mid-level center. I think that's the actual center and the NHC is a little too far south and west with the center placement.

[Hammy]

Are we getting another plane? Tropical Tidbits doesn't appear to have updated since earlier and I'm not sure where else to look.

[wxman57]

Gordon doesn't look anything like a hurricane. To illustrate what I posted earlier about the NHC position vs. where the center appears to be, look at the images below. In each 21Z image I put a red crosshair where the NHC said it would be at 21Z. The center appears to be about 25 miles east of their estimate. If the LLC really is west of the convection, then it's a lot weaker than 60 kts. I still think 45 kts is about right. I told our clients in Pascagoula that they may well miss out on any wind and much rain tonight. I went with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain in Pascagoula tonight. Little or no surge west of landfall. There is no SE wind blowing into the MS coast to produce a surge there. Check out the winds on the top graphic, too. Just 10 kts along the coast. May not be too many issues with wind tonight beyond the beaches.

[floridasun78]

look that making land fall now i dont see plane flying out any more

[wx98]

Are we getting another plane? Tropical Tidbits doesn't appear to have updated since earlier and I'm not sure where else to look.

Plane supposed to take off at 22z if I’m not mistaken.

[tropicwatch]

423
NOUS42 KNHC 031548
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT MON 03 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GORDON
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 04/2330Z,05/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0607A GORDON
C. 04/2200Z
D. 29.8N 88.3W
E. 04/2300Z TO 05/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Javlin]

Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.

Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?

[bella_may]

Gordon finally looks like a hurricane on satellite.

Looks like it’s losing a lot of convection around the center to me. But maybe idk what I’m looking at

[Steve]

It looks like that’s real close to orange Beach and Gulf Shores and sort of moving in there. But like you said, they have the center a bit SSW of there. Not sure if it’s a relocation or if it just looks like the center. Cloud tops are warming on IR but it should fire up later tonight regardless if the llc is still offshore or not. Interesting storm and one that looks like it’s not going to get anyone too hard outside of some isolated tornadoes or flooding.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah someone said one more mission for hurricane hunters at 5 pm. That would be now if it is indeed scheduled.

[MississippiWx]

Gordon doesn't look anything like a hurricane. To illustrate what I posted earlier about the NHC position vs. where the center appears to be, look at the images below. In each 21Z image I put a red crosshair where the NHC said it would be at 21Z. The center appears to be about 25 miles east of their estimate. If the LLC really is west of the convection, then it's a lot weaker than 60 kts. I still think 45 kts is about right. I told our clients in Pascagoula that they may well miss out on any wind and much rain tonight. I went with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain in Pascagoula tonight. Little or no surge west of landfall. There is no SE wind blowing into the MS coast to produce a surge there. Check out the winds on the top graphic, too. Just 10 kts along the coast. May not be too many issues with wind tonight beyond the beaches.

We will see who is correct. You or the NHC.

On satellite, it looks much more like a Cat 1 hurricane now.

[Stormcenter]

Well I guess everyone has a right to their opinion
as to where Gordon is going. He definitely looks like he’s heading to the MS. coastline as the models and a NHC has been showing.

[wxman57]

Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.

Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?

Gordon will be nothing compared to Nate on the MS coast. Can you handle 15-20 mph northerly wind there? Looking at satellite and radar loops, I'm quite surprised the NHC went with the mid MS coast hit. The center is now only 43 miles from the coast (east of Mobile Bay). It needs to track NW at 305 degrees to hit the mid MS coast.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Pensacola getting more than we thought earlier as it tracked further east

[drezee]

Buoy has reported 55mph 1-min sustained winds last hour...4m height...legit wind

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

[MidnightRain]

Where are the strongest winds in this thing? The deepest convention in that NE squall is on Pensacola's doorstep and there's virtually no wind there. The entire eastern side is just squally, not really filled in. I'm guessing the winds are dispersed through those immediate squalls on the east side.

[wxman57]

Buoy has reported 55mph 1-min sustained winds last hour...4m height...legit wind

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

I see peak 1-min at 46.6 kts or about 53 mph there. Max observed wind at any interval was 40.8 kts (about 45 mph). That buoy is passing right through Gordon's heaviest squalls north of the center, which may be a good estimate of its max sustained wind.

[Javlin]

Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.

Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?

Gordon will be nothing compared to Nate on the MS coast. Can you handle 15-20 mph northerly wind there? Looking at satellite and radar loops, I'm quite surprised the NHC went with the mid MS coast hit. The center is now only 43 miles from the coast (east of Mobile Bay). It needs to track NW at 305 degrees to hit the mid MS coast.

You sure know how to ruin an evening I be sure not to invite you to a party.