ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Looks like it’s hugging the coast ..

[chaser1]

It's being transforming little by little during the day, with an outflow channel now on its NE quadrant as the ULL keeps moving out of its way little by little. This is shaping up to be a big system typical of monsoonal gyres, notice 97E rotating towards future to be Michael, rotating around the main gyre, these two vorticities will consolidate late tomorrow night over the Yucatan Channel, until then don't expect much intensification for the next 18-24 hrs. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/fXh1bf6.gif

I sort of agree. I think 97E will move north as you suggested however I think that it will in fact become the dominant COC as it moves into the Caribbean north of Honduras. With such an evolution the timing will be delayed (as i've been anticipating for several days now), and likely to result in an eventual track that should sensibly be forced a tad more eastward in advance of the strong eastward moving short wave. I would think this would heighten potential impact east of Panama City

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better each on both sat and radar. starting to move nearly due south now. doing a cyclonic loop of sorts.

[Nimbus]

Back on topic, I think the energy Aric was talking about is from invest 97 crossing the peninsula.
Could try to create a second competing center by Monday which would change the model runs.

[Aric Dunn]

Back on topic, I think the energy Aric was talking about is from invest 97 crossing the peninsula.
Could try to create a second competing center by Monday which would change the model runs.

No,

if you watch long loops you can clearly see the remains of the 97E moving ene along the Honduras Nicaraguan border and there is nothing left in the low levels as it passed over very high mountains.

97e is having little to no effect anymore.

PTC has two vorts rotating around each other from 2 areas of convection that formed and shear playing a role in that.

at least any surface energy. some mid level vorticity will eventually merge. but the llc is already there.

[KWT]

Now officially TD14, now forecasted to reach 65kts as well before landfall...given the 00z suite, I dare say that's conservative.

[LarryWx]

The models/NHC track is in the Gulf near 87W. I checked Gulf SSTs where this TC is projected to track and they are way up in the bathwater 29-30C (84-86F) range, which is normal for August/early Sep! Backing this up is a buoy at 26.0N, 85.6W which is at a whopping 85F or near 29.5C! Normal by this late in the season is down to only ~82F. Furthermore, the most notable thing is that SSTs from there northward all the way up to the FL Panhandle are in the 84-85 F (29-29.5C) range. Backing this up are a buoy at 28.8N, 86.0W, which is at 84 F, and Panama City Beach, which is at 85 F. By now, they should have cooled off from summer highs a decent number of degrees. Instead, thanks to the incredibly persistent heat in Sep and early Oct, they remain near summer highs! What's normal there now? Only ~80 and often by now they're in the high 70s! So, they're running some 5 F warmer than normal, which is likely at record warmth for early Oct. Even the normal for mid Sep is only ~83.

This means that shear (which the GFS and Euro have as quite light by the way) and dry air will have to be relied on to keep this in check as SSTs certainly won't do so like they often can in October in the northern Gulf. Instead, this TC is going to be crossing Gulf SSTs all the way to FL that are about as warm or warmer than that of any TC on record that has crossed this area during Oct. 9-11. Hopefully the models are properly taking this into account.

[robbielyn]

What's going on with the site today, been acting up, takes forever to load up. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

it's 615am and still super slow.

[GCANE]

Very strong convection continuously firing just NE of the CoC.
Looks like its pushing out some of the jet to its NW.

[Nimbus]

What's going on with the site today, been acting up, takes forever to load up. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

it's 615am and still super slow.

Not much pertinent info about 14 on storm2k, The Levi Cowan video yesterday explained everything we need to know, he said not much accuracy in the final forecast till Monday but NHC is now expecting hurricane.

The center of potential tropical cyclone fourteen 07/0300 UTC is
near 18.8n 86.6w. The potential cyclone is moving N, or 360
degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to
35 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15n northward from 80w westward.
Numerous strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to 180 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant, and within 270 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. The public advisories are being transmitted via the
WMO header wtnt34 knhc, and via the AWIPS header miatcpat4. The
forecast/advisories are being transmitted via the WMO header
wtnt24 knhc, and via the AWIPS header miatcmat4.

[NDG]

When was the last time the FL Panhandle was hit by a major hurricane? If the Euro and GFS were to be correct, I believe this will be the first one since Hurricane Dennis '05 which had a small core of hurricane force winds and damage was not widespread, since then that area has super developed especially from Destin to the Panama City area.

[cycloneye]

This chaser has been around the world doing this and he says he is going to chase Michael.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1048882708955377664

[Aric Dunn]

There are a couple very believable 35kt ship reports well to the north of the center. Suspect 11am we will a TS. Though they might just wait for recon in the afternoon.

[kthmcc7319]

When was the last time the FL Panhandle was hit by a major hurricane? If the Euro and GFS were to be correct, I believe this will be the first one since Hurricane Dennis '05 which had a small core of hurricane force winds and damage was not widespread, since then that area has super developed especially from Destin to the Panama City area.

Did you mean to say “major” hurricane, as in more than a CAT 3? Are you implying that Michael will be a Major Hurricane?

[NDG]

When was the last time the FL Panhandle was hit by a major hurricane? If the Euro and GFS were to be correct, I believe this will be the first one since Hurricane Dennis '05 which had a small core of hurricane force winds and damage was not widespread, since then that area has super developed especially from Destin to the Panama City area.

Did you mean to say “major” hurricane, as in more than a CAT 3? Are you implying that Michael will be a Major Hurricane?

Cat 3 is a major hurricane, and that's why I typed "if the GFS and Euro were to be correct"
This site is too slow this morning to be arguing, lol.

[kthmcc7319]

When was the last time the FL Panhandle was hit by a major hurricane? If the Euro and GFS were to be correct, I believe this will be the first one since Hurricane Dennis '05 which had a small core of hurricane force winds and damage was not widespread, since then that area has super developed especially from Destin to the Panama City area.

Did you mean to say “major” hurricane, as in more than a CAT 3? Are you implying that Michael will be a Major Hurricane?

Cat 3 is a major hurricane, and that's why I typed "if the GFS and Euro were to be correct"
This site is too slow this morning to be arguing, lol.

I’m not arguing, just clarifying. I just woke up and yours was the first post I read. It caught me off guard. I see now that the models have ramped up intensity on soon to be Michael. Being a resident of the Destin area, your post was of immediate concern.

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot-tower spewing cirrus very close to the CoC.
Pretty much right on time at DMAX.
Warm core to the NE is closing in.
Anti-cyclone to the south is closing in.
Its all coming together, can start to see a twist on WV.

PV streamer has dramatically pushed north overnight.
Last evening, the jet over Cuba moved way north into FL.
GOM is going to calm down just ahead of the system moving into it.
GFS keeps deepening this on each successive run.

Watching forecast now for a possible ULL to form directly east of the system when its in the mid GOM.
Could create a poleward outflow channel.
GFS is already starting to advertise this.

Oh, and by the way, will go directly over the Loop Current on Tuesday.

[robbielyn]

Did you mean to say “major” hurricane, as in more than a CAT 3? Are you implying that Michael will be a Major Hurricane?

Cat 3 is a major hurricane, and that's why I typed "if the GFS and Euro were to be correct"
This site is too slow this morning to be arguing, lol.

I’m not arguing, just clarifying. I just woke up and yours was the first post I read. It caught me off guard. I see now that the models have ramped up intensity on soon to be Michael. Being a resident of the Destin area, your post was of immediate concern.

I would be getting your plan in motion starting this morning. 72-96 hours isn't a lot ok for time. This isn't going to be pretty if this verifies. Wish you and your family the best.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track is still TD.

AL, 14, 2018100712, , BEST, 0, 190N, 869W, 30, 1004, TD

[northjaxpro]

The system is definitely pulling together despite 20 kt southwesterly shear in the NW Caribbean.. It is looking decent this morning with deep convective tops just removed from the coc to its east and northeast.

Getting a bad vibe about future Michael concerning
rapid intensification once the center moves into the Eastern /Northeast GOM by Tuesday. The models just may be right in showing pretty favorable conditions with shear really.dropping off next 36-48 hours.