ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[bella_may]

South Alabama is still having class tomorrow. Really hope they don’t wait too long because some students commute an hour back and forth. They’re always so terrible at handling these situations

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 040522
AF305 0307A GORDON HDOB 51 20180904
051230 2725N 08622W 4932 05984 0311 -054 -103 067014 015 020 001 00
051300 2727N 08623W 4799 06203 0327 -069 -114 072012 013 020 001 00
051330 2729N 08624W 4695 06374 0339 -078 -129 076013 013 021 000 00
051400 2731N 08625W 4659 06439 0347 -083 -136 076015 016 022 000 00
051430 2733N 08627W 4656 06445 0350 -085 -130 073016 016 024 000 00
051500 2735N 08628W 4659 06440 0350 -085 -135 072018 020 025 000 00
051530 2737N 08629W 4655 06446 0349 -085 -138 072019 020 024 000 00
051600 2739N 08631W 4659 06441 0350 -089 -139 065020 020 024 000 00
051630 2741N 08632W 4660 06441 0353 -090 -140 067020 021 028 000 00
051700 2743N 08634W 4661 06444 0355 -090 -146 065020 021 029 001 00
051730 2746N 08636W 4560 06608 0361 -096 -150 072017 020 030 000 00
051800 2748N 08637W 4438 06814 0372 -107 -166 080014 015 028 001 00
051830 2750N 08639W 4298 07059 0385 -122 -195 087013 014 029 000 00
051900 2752N 08641W 4188 07252 0396 -138 -217 079014 015 029 000 00
051930 2754N 08642W 4093 07427 0406 -150 -246 076018 018 026 000 00
052000 2756N 08644W 4009 07584 0416 -163 -272 070019 019 025 000 00
052030 2757N 08645W 3938 07721 0426 -171 -272 058015 018 026 000 00
052100 2759N 08647W 3922 07754 0431 -171 -286 057013 013 026 000 00
052130 2801N 08649W 3925 07749 0433 -172 -281 061014 014 025 000 00
052200 2804N 08651W 3931 07741 0434 -170 -276 065013 014 025 000 00

[artist]

Headed home

[Hammy]

Anyone have last dropsonde data? Is that 73kts at surface (1007mb)?

*Correction... Drop 14..one before eye drop

Impressive winds on the dropsonde. This could be approaching hurricane strength after all. The pressure on the dropsonde was also 1002mb.

It’s got quite the high pressure for a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane but that’s probably because of the higher than normal environmental pressures

Don't smaller systems also tend to have higher pressure since the gradient is still large enough?

[MississippiWx]

Gordon is trying to give his best go at rapid intensification right now. This is the best it has looked. The key is the cold cloud tops over the center and how much they can persist and continue to grow.

[bella_may]

Looks like another band wrapping around closer to the “center”. On the visible radar

[Hammy]

Gordon is trying to give his best go at rapid intensification right now. This is the best it has looked. The key is the cold cloud tops over the center and how much they can persist and continue to grow.

Too bad the recon mission ended, it would've been interesting to see what the winds are during the D-max.

[MississippiWx]

NHC bumps up the winds to 65mph. Conservative in my opinion. Recon would leave when all the fun starts.

[artist]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

[bella_may]

Storms really firing close to the center now

[Jag95]

Storms really firing close to the center now

Yeah, convection has fired up the last couple of hours. I was hoping we'd get lucky, but it looks like he's going to make a run at hurricane status if that keeps up.

[tropicwatch]

Gordon is building and holding its convection very well this morning.

[GCANE]

Convection very close to the CoC
Recon just made a pass thru it, recorded 1000mb extrapolated surface pressure.

[GCANE]

48 knot surface wind in a high rain-rate cell, recorded 28 mm/hr.

[GCANE]

GOES 17 is working

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=11p20um

[GCANE]

Pulling in the TPW from the Carib now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Biggest inhibiting factor is 355K PV ahead of it.

However, its pulling in High-CAPE air, at 3500.

Likely a weak Cat 1 at best unless something unforeseen happens.

Will be watching CINH on approach to landfall.

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 9:56Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2018
Storm Name: Gordon (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 9:22:13Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.77N 85.80W
B. Center Fix Location: 167 statute miles (268 km) to the S (183°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,135m (10,285ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 140° at 14kts (From the SE at 16mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the E (86°) of center fix at 9:15:37Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 52kts (From the SE at 59.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix at 9:04:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36kts (41.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (269°) of center fix at 9:23:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 38° at 25kts (From the NE at 28.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix at 9:35:26Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) which was observed 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the E (81°) from the flight level center at 9:04:03Z

[MississippiWx]

Gordon just can't quite get it all together. Convection has improved, but not much else, apparently. Doubting this ever becomes a hurricane.

[GCANE]

Second plane just took off.

[GCANE]

GOES 16 Rapid Scan is working

Helicity holding up well now.