WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#121 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:06 pm

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2018OCT23 211000  5.4  955.6  99.6  5.0 5.1 7.6  1.3T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF  -0.22 -81.81  EYE      9 IR  58.3   13.13 -148.50  ARCHER   HIM-8 17.8

TPPN10 PGTW 232139

A. TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 23/2100Z

C. 13.02N

D. 148.46E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO
CONSTRAINT OF TNO CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 06 HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1733Z 12.72N 149.00E SSMI


MILAM
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#122 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:11 pm

7.6 Raw!!!! :double:
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#123 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:30 pm

The ADT weakening and rapid dissipation flags are horribly confused right now.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#124 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:42 pm

If Yutu really go over Saipan, could we see a sub-900 reading.
This storm is bombing
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#125 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm

Rapidly intensifying. Looking more like a Cat 5 for Saipan and Tinian. Could be the strongest typhoon ever to hit the Marianas.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#126 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:01 pm

2018OCT23 231000 5.4 955.5 99.6 5.4 6.2 7.5 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.42 -79.33 EYE 12 IR 78.1 13.30 -148.19 ARCHER HIM-8 17.8


Big uptick in the eye temp.

When the cloud tops cool off again tomorrow night, this will be a typhoon for the ages -- possibly rivaling Haiyan.

Yutu might be the jackpot we've all been waiting for this season... if it can hold off an ERC.
Last edited by Highteeld on Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#127 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:02 pm

If this doesn't thread the needle and go between islands, this could be a historic storm for the Northern Mariana Islands. It's rare to see the JTWC so bullish with an intensity forecast.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#128 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:06 pm

Of course, if Saipan gets nailed, this would be a humanitarian disaster -- which isn't something to be excited about. 52,000 people live there.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#129 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:10 pm

Yeah, a strike from a system of this strength pretty much anywhere would be an issue. The strongest system I'm aware to have impacted Saipan is Super Typhoon Kim '86, although that is far from all-inclusive. The strongest for the entire island chain I think is either the 1900 Guam Typhoon or Super Typhoon Karen '62, which also impacted Guam.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#130 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:15 pm

JMA's 00Z Dvorak analysis came in with a FT of 6.5, so we'll probably see 100 kt from them here in a minute.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#131 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:26 pm

NWS Guam has a new website up.

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#132 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:29 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:31 pm

Eye coming into radar view.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#134 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:37 pm

800 pound gorilla seems like a fitting description for this beast. @NWSGuam
Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#135 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:43 pm

Too bad though... would have been a much more fitting AFD synopsis for Kong-Rey

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#136 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:47 pm

Seems like the Chinese are pretty on the ball with this storm. They have it pegged at 920 mb, with 120 kt sustained 10-minute winds. Probably pretty darn close.

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#137 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:50 pm

31W YUTU 181024 0000 13.3N 147.9E WPAC 130 926

Super Typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#138 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm

WP, 31, 2018102312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1497E, 90, 967, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1006, 210, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, YUTU, D,
WP, 31, 2018102400, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1479E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 40, 30, 50, 1004, 200, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, YUTU, D,

41 mb drop in the last 12 hours according to JTWC.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#139 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:16 pm

Image

The passage is still open to the north but look at that ridge in SC Sea - would that migrate Eastward?
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#140 Postby StruThiO » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:29 pm

Well... okay then :eek:
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