ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Yeah, it is pretty darn close to being designated a TD, if it isn't already. one. I think if we get another convective burst overnight, it will get named a depression tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.
https://i.imgur.com/ZFHvV2f.jpg
I wouldn’t write it off too quickly. It looks like it’s trying to spin up again this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
A few strong cells on 37 GHz.
They could be circulating around a center.
They could be circulating around a center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Circulation is really starting to close in now. I think she's going to make a run for tropical storm today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
8 AM TWO:
A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data
indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well
organized. However, this system could still become a tropical
depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today
and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data
indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well
organized. However, this system could still become a tropical
depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today
and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
There is very little doubt this is closed and could be a TD this morning. very clear circ ( still weak at surface) with convection building right around it now.
does not have much time before shear hits it. but could easily be a TS.
hopefully, they send the plane later.
we also now have it on radar so that will help from this point on.
does not have much time before shear hits it. but could easily be a TS.
hopefully, they send the plane later.
we also now have it on radar so that will help from this point on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.
https://i.imgur.com/ZFHvV2f.jpg
Your ASCAT pass totally missed it. The coc is to the west near roughly 32N 76W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Like Aric said, it's likely a TD already and could make TS before it gets to NC. Hot tower popping right over the LLC now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
I'm not sure I see anything but a vigorous MLC.
I'm not sure I see anything but a vigorous MLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
12Z Model consensus is still for a TS. In the above sat loop you can see it even has banding now. Just needs a convective blowup over the center to kick the winds up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
emeraldislenc wrote:How close will it get to the coast of nc?
0Z Euro total precip. Looks like most stays offshore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Raining here now at Emerald Isle hope we do not get much rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Low level cloud deck is starting to thicken all over. probably about to see a large convective burst. Which would help deepen the weak surface circ. development could happen pretty fast today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
emeraldislenc wrote:Raining here now at Emerald Isle hope we do not get much rain.
Yes we all hope so too. We know you sure don't need anymore!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Low level cloud deck is starting to thicken all over. probably about to see a large convective burst. Which would help deepen the weak surface circ. development could happen pretty fast today.
There's your burst. Let's see if it can wrap all the way around on the south side.
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