plasticup wrote:
At this time,
the overall guidance has been shifting a little bit westward,
suggesting a stronger ridge. On this basis, the NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly in that direction at the end of the forecast
period.
It's interesting that Avila talk so much about the stearing, but all these little jogs west aren't really the issue. The important thing is whether or nor the trough picks Florence up at all, and that won't start to be clear for another 3-4 days. Whether it recurves at 45W or at 55W makes no difference.
I think you're missing the point. You're right in that it doesn't necessarily matter if the storm were to recurve at 40W, 50W, or perhaps 60W. What matters is:
1) how weak or strong Florence may be = whether or not a trough might be capable of picking up the storm
2) how far south, or west the storm might be at any point where a trough well to its north may or may not cause enough of a "pull" or erosion of mid level ridging to impact its motion
3) how fast the storm is moving or forecast to move relative to the orientation and location of temporary dropping troughs
So, how these other variables play out LARGELY impacts whether or not a trough may only impact any storms forward motion, or directly cause mid level steering to turn any given storm poleward and away from any land. Have you ever nearly been in some type of auto or other accident, and found yourself thinking ".... wow, just 2 seconds earlier or slower and that could've happened to me instead". That's pretty much how weather systems are and the differences that can occur by relative small scale different synoptic weather system positions and orientation can result in. A distance of 50 miles can mean a particular spot receiving category 5 winds verses barely feeling hurricane conditions at all. 12-24 hours or perhaps a 50-100 mile distance over the vast open ocean could spell the difference whether a hurricane might directly strike the Carolina outer banks or possibly swing harmlessly well offshore.
