EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[Highteeld]

the CDO has grown a ton in the last few hours. Getting a T 7.0 look to it... just needs a little more warming of the eye... cat 5 here we come

[Highteeld]

SSTs along the way are warm enough, but still nowhere close to what Patricia Had.

What's the difference in SSTs between 2015 and now?

I took a look back at Patricia in which the 3rd anniversary is coming and I noticed I didn't save many images before 1700z on the 22nd. Patty had deeper sustained convection around the tight inner core. It comes down to how deep the convection wraps around this solid eye during the next 4 hours to see how strong Willa will ultimately become. It would be nice to have those SDD floaters right about now...

I think SST's were about 2*C warmer for Patricia... 31* vs. 29* IIRC.

[supercane4867]

SSTs along the way are warm enough, but still nowhere close to what Patricia Had.

What's the difference in SSTs between 2015 and now?

I took a look back at Patricia in which the 3rd anniversary is coming and I noticed I didn't save many images before 1700z on the 22nd. Patty had deeper sustained convection around the tight inner core. It comes down to how deep the convection wraps around this solid eye during the next 4 hours to see how strong Willa will ultimately become. It would be nice to have those SDD floaters right about now...

It's mainly due to the difference in location. Patricial was about couple hundred miles SE of Willa's current position. SSTs are climatologically the highest in that region and 2015 had record high SSTs of over 31C.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This has all the hallmarks of another Hurricane Patricia. Easily will peak 175mph+

[Highteeld]

This has all the hallmarks of another Hurricane Patricia. Easily will peak 175mph+

Agreed. I'm expecting 150 knots +/- 5

[supercane4867]

Explosive intensification underway

[Kingarabian]

I'm getting 2009 Rick vibes with this one. Let's not throw Patricia comparisons too loosely as it was a freak of nature. Anything is possible, but Its whole episode was almost unfathomable.

[Highteeld]

Raw T is skyrocketing. ADT will probably produce a RAW T over 7.0 next measurement as the CB's on the wrn side of the eyewall continue to intensify/cool the CDO even more.

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing Cat 4. Could be a Cat 5 somewhat soon.

[Highteeld]

Willa vs Patty. A more fair comparison to be made later tonight, but here's what we have now.

[Cyclenall]

This has all the hallmarks of another Hurricane Patricia. Easily will peak 175mph+

It doesn't. As this was posted we were bringing up the differences between the two setups. Hurricane Patricia was the strongest low pressure system recorded in the western hemisphere with sustained peak winds at an unfathomable 215 mph (345 km/h). This even puts Hurricane Wilma's winds to shame. Not every generation sees something like that occur. It might be theoretically possible for Willa to become a 880-877 mb monster but the odds are highly against it. If it does that would be more astonishing than Hurricanes Michael and Wilma put together.

Just in 14 minutes in that IR loop posted Willa's eye is clearing amazingly fast. Bombs away! I don't have Rick vibes (only Kenna vibes still) but the next 3 hours will determine if it has a shot to become the next Rick.

[Yellow Evan]

Willa vs Patty. A more fair comparison to be made later tonight, but here's what we have now.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/24E/imagery/avn-animated.gif
https://i.imgur.com/K91ETy6.gif

Patricia's CDO was much colder. The two loops show why it's a bad comparison actually.

Compare this to Kenna 02/Sandra 15/Tico 83/Rick 09, folks. Not Patricia.

[Yellow Evan]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 946.8mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +8.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye nearing WMG already. Let that sink in.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Willa is a Category 5 by tomorrow morning.

[EquusStorm]

It's pretty sobering that we're only on advisory #7 and Willa already looks this impressive. I have work tomorrow but no doubt I'm going to be watching this one late.

[Highteeld]

Beast Mode = Engaged

[Yellow Evan]

[Highteeld]

Just look at the difference 7 hours has made:

[Cyclenall]

Willa vs Patty. A more fair comparison to be made later tonight, but here's what we have now.

*loops*

The Patty loop is too far into her category 5 out-of-handness, a loop when she was still around 90-120 knots would be suitable. I don't have one.

Patricia's CDO was much colder. The two loops show why it's a bad comparison actually.

Compare this to Kenna 02/Sandra 15/Tico 83/Rick 09, folks. Not Patricia.

Larger and colder.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 946.8mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +8.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye nearing WMG already. Let that sink in.

Raw T at 7.0 already, WOW!! Currently just in the span of 1 hour the pressure is likely dropping from CAT3 status to high end CAT4 levels.

It's pretty sobering that we're only on advisory #7 and Willa already looks this impressive. I have work tomorrow but no doubt I'm going to be watching this one late.

Same here, I was looking forward to a good night's rest but it appears that is not happening .

[Highteeld]

Willa vs Patty. A more fair comparison to be made later tonight, but here's what we have now.

*loops*

The Patty loop is too far into her category 5 out-of-handness, a loop when she was still around 90-120 knots would be suitable. I don't have one.

I didn't have one either... So I posted it knowing that I'd get some flack... but it was all I could find lol