ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there
is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over
the central Atlantic.

That translates to more ACE for the basin that needs to go over 100 units. (Right now at 87.8)

[AnnularCane]

Well, the latest NHC discussion is calling it an eye, so I guess it is an eye?

[NDG]

Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there
is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over
the central Atlantic.

That translates to more ACE for the basin that needs to go over 100 units. (Right now at 87.8)

100+ ACE is not out of the question if the latest Euro is correct with it meandering around the Atlantic over the next 10 days.

[Buck]

I think Leslie will take us close to if not over 100 ACE, but it’s also only October 2 so plenty of time left in the season.

[galaxy401]

Leslie looking more and more like a hurricane now. Up to 60 knots in the latest Best Track.

[Ntxw]

Leslie has generated 4.6 units of ACE within 10 days of her existence so far. NHC 5 day forecast yields an additional ~6 units.

[NDG]

Leslie has finally become a hurricane, the 6th of the season.

[northjaxpro]

Leslie just keeps chugging along indeed. She is like the Energizer Eveready battery bunny......

[Buck]

Really turned into a beautiful storm.

[Kazmit]

It looks like this will be around for at least another week which is good for ACE numbers.

[Hammy]

It looks like this will be around for at least another week which is good for ACE numbers.

Looks like we should get to 100 ACE this year if it can stick around another week (and not weaken significantly at the end)

[Ntxw]

The next 5 day forecast of the NHC still yields roughly 6 units of ACE. Been fairly consistent regarding that time frame. This on top of about 6.3 units completed.

[plasticup]

This thing is really stripping the sand from Bermuda's beaches.

[cycloneye]

Down to Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

[cycloneye]

Down to Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

[Kazmit]

This thing is really stripping the sand from Bermuda's beaches.

Yes, they have been getting really steep. Good for surfers though.

[KWT]

Worth noting most models get far enough south now that Leslie may re enter somewhat warmer waters again. Around the NHC 5 day mark temps are around 26c, a little south again and they go up to 27c. Could be enough for some strengthening again.

A lot of the models are also showing Leslie strengthening again past the 120 hour mark. If that were to happen the Atlantic ocean would go above 100 units.

[AnnularCane]

Will anybody be inviting Leslie over for Thanksgiving dinner?

[tomatkins]

Will anybody be inviting Leslie over for Thanksgiving dinner?

No but if the GFS plays out, it will break the Atlantic record for longest lasting storm with at least 29 days as a named storm, and depending what happens after the end of the run, could make a run at breaking Hurricane John's 1994 record.

[EquusStorm]

Imagine if this were Cabo Verde season and Leslie decided to drop southeast into the eastern MDR then hook west and become a classic Verde hurricane. It could happen someday, lol